Think Kentucky’s strength of schedule is harder in 2020? Math says you’re right.
It’s easy to look at the biggest differences in Kentucky’s football schedule from 2019 to 2020 and assume that the Wildcats will face a tougher road this season than last.
They trade a home date against Arkansas, arguably the worst team in the league, for a road game at Auburn, which last season won nine games and played Southeastern Conference title-game participants Georgia and LSU each within a possession. Contests against Florida, Tennessee and Louisville staged in Lexington last year will happen in those schools’ venues this fall; UK was 1-2 in those games in 2019. On paper, those facts jump out as alarming when trying to predict UK’s fortunes this fall.
The numbers seem to back it up. Based on data from online sportsbook Sports Betting Dime, using its own strength-of-schedule formula, UK in 2020 has the 41st hardest schedule in the country and the 10th-toughest schedule in the league, ahead of Missouri (51st), Auburn (55th), Florida (62nd) and Texas A&M (75th). A recent CBS Sports ranking, using its own formula, also pegged the Cats’ schedule as the 10th hardest, though it had Georgia’s slate ranked behind the Cats instead of Auburn’s. ESPN’s Football Power Index paints an even starker picture: it has Kentucky’s schedule as the 11th-toughest in the league (yay!) but the 32nd hardest in all of college football (gulp).
Three of UK’s 2020 opponents finished inside the top 15 of Jeff Sagarin’s final ratings for last season, and all return significant experience: Georgia (5th), Florida (10th) and Auburn (13th). The Wildcats last season were 0-3 against teams that finished in Sagarin’s top 15 after 2018 (Mississippi State in addition to Georgia and Florida). They haven’t beaten Georgia since 2009 — last decade was the first that it hasn’t gotten at least one win over the Bulldogs — and has beaten Florida only once since 1986 (though, has played the Gators competitively more often than not in Mark Stoops’ tenure). In their 18 meetings since 1966, Kentucky has beaten Auburn only once.
So, it’s easy to get pessimistic about UK’s outlook, and that’s before you factor in the ongoing pandemic and the potential ramifications thereof. Those might include reduced or no fans at games, which, since its toughest opponents are on the road this season, could end up being a positive for Kentucky if contests are held.
A bright side: the Cats, coming off a fourth straight winning season and who return 17 starters, are earning more preseason respect than in past years. ESPN’s FPI rates them as the 33rd best team in the country, the No. 7 team in the SEC and as a near-lock to win at least six games. Last year’s 8-5 team ranked 33rd overall in Sagarin’s final ratings, also the seventh-best mark in the SEC.
2020 UK football schedule
Home games in all capital letters. Kickoff times to be announced later.
Sept. 3: EASTERN MICHIGAN
Sept. 12: At Florida
Sept. 19: KENT STATE
Sept. 26: SOUTH CAROLINA
Oct. 3: At Auburn
Oct. 10: EASTERN ILLINOIS
Oct. 17: VANDERBILT
Oct. 24: At Missouri
Oct. 31: Open
Nov. 7: At Tennessee
Nov. 14: MISSISSIPPI STATE
Nov. 21: GEORGIA
Nov. 28: At Louisville
This story was originally published June 24, 2020 at 3:04 PM.
