How does Kentucky football finish with a winning record in 2020? Here’s the path.
Kentucky learned Monday what its new 2020 football schedule will be.
Game times have yet to be determined, but the meatiest portion — which opponents are played each week — were revealed Monday night during an SEC Network broadcast.
A 10-game slate consisting only of Southeastern Conference opponents would be tough even without the possibility of COVID-19 prohibiting player participation from week to week. This UK team is loaded — it returns 17 starters and a ton of valuable experience in critical spots — but history is not kind: the Wildcats have finished with a record of .500 or better only 23 times against Southeastern teams since the league was formed in 1933. UK has had a winning record against SEC opponents only eight times, most recently in 2018 (5-3). The Wildcats have gone unbeaten in the league once, in 1977 (6-0).
So, what does 2020 have in store? Let’s try some guesswork.
at Auburn (Sept. 26)
History: UK trails series 6-26-1.
Background: The Tigers for a while were a fixture on UK’s schedule — they played every season from 1954-1971 — but have played only 13 times since. UK is 1-17 in the last 18 meetings against the Tigers, who return SEC Offensive Freshman of the Year Bo Nix, a quarterback, and are ranked No. 11 in the preseason coaches poll.
Prediction: Kentucky 31, Auburn 27.
Rationale: Six weeks to prepare serves the Wildcats better than it does the Tigers, whose home-field advantage is nullified by the absence of fans in the stadium. On paper this looks like the best game on the SEC’s week one slate, and both teams will be out to gain more national respect.
Mississippi (Oct. 3)
History: UK trails series 14-28-1.
Background: Lane Kiffin is in his first year at the helm in Oxford, and he takes over a program that hasn’t qualified for the postseason since 2015 (it won the Sugar Bowl that year). Kiffin was the head coach at Tennessee in 2009, when the Volunteers defeated UK 30-24 in Lexington, and he was the offensive coordinator at Alabama in 2016 when the programs met.
Prediction: Kentucky 35, Mississippi 14.
Rationale: Only two SEC teams — Arkansas and Vanderbilt — gave up more yards than Ole Miss did last season. Kiffin might get the Rebels back on track, but it’s not going to be an overnight overhaul.
Mississippi State (Oct. 10)
History: UK trails series 24-23.
Background: Since MSU won seven straight games from 2009-2015, UK has split the last four meetings with its permanent rival from the West Division. Mike Leach, an offensive coordinator at UK under Hal Mumme in 1997 and 1998, is in his first season with the Bulldogs after eight seasons as the head coach at Washington State. The Air Raid disciple, ironically, has one of the best running backs in the league in Kylin Hill.
Prediction: Kentucky 35, Mississippi State 28.
Rationale: Shootout! If Sawyer Smith’s arm was at full strength last year, Kentucky might have left Starkville with a victory; it still played the Bulldogs tightly into the fourth quarter of an eventual 28-13 loss.
at Tennessee (Oct. 17)
History: UK trails series 81-25-9.
Background: Other than two wins last decade — 2011 and 2017 — there’s not a lot to write home about if you’re the Cats in this border “rivalry.” A 26-game win streak by the Volunteers from 1985-2010 built the biggest gap, but it wasn’t the only lengthy skid in UK’s time playing the Vols: they lost 11 straight from 1965-1975 and in 33 meetings from 1920-1952 managed only three wins (along with six ties).
Prediction: Tennessee 20, Kentucky 14.
Rationale: Much like Florida, Kentucky’s arguably been on even footing with Tennessee in recent years but all it has to show for it under Stoops is a single win. If you work under the assumption that the Cats lose to Alabama but can manage to go at least 2-2 in their other road games — at Auburn, at Florida, at Missouri and at Tennessee — I think it’s more likely they sweep the other three than it is they defeat the Volunteers, given all the bad mojo from years past.
Georgia (Oct. 24)
History: UK trails series 12-58-2.
Background: Since the SEC began, the span of 2010-2019 was the first decade in school history that UK didn’t defeat Georgia, whom it has played every year since 1956. The Wildcats’ last win came in 2009, Rich Brooks’ final season as their head coach. Stoops is 0-7 against Georgia, the only SEC East opponent he hasn’t defeated. The defending East Division champ was ranked No. 4 in the preseason coaches poll.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Kentucky 10.
Rationale: A 21-0 Georgia win felt much closer than the final score indicated in the moment, but the Bulldogs have proven to be a tough nut to crack for Stoops and Co. They’re narrowed the gap some in recent years, but they’ve beaten UK by an average of 24 points each season during his tenure.
at Missouri (Oct. 31)
History: UK leads series 7-3.
Background: Mizzou is one of four teams in the league with a new head coach (the highly amusing Eli Drinkwitz) and one of only three SEC programs against which the Cats have an all-time winning record. Mizzou’s defense was one of the best in the league last year, allowing 19.4 points (fifth) and 314 total yards (third) a game, and most of that unit returns.
Prediction: Kentucky 24, Missouri 14.
Rationale: While Kentucky’s gotten the better of the Tigers in the last five seasons, three of those games were settled by eight points or less and only one — last year’s 29-7 decision in Lexington — approached blowout territory. UK extends its streak but not without a good fight.
Vanderbilt (Nov. 14)
History: UK leads series 46-42-4.
Background: Kentucky under Stoops is 5-2 against the SEC East’s perennial “Least Likely to Succeed,” and brings a four-game win streak into 2020. The Commodores’ returning leading tackler — Dimitri Moore — is among several players who’ve opted out of the 2020 season because of the pandemic. Former UK quarterback Danny Clark, a junior college transfer, is among the challengers for Vandy’s vacant quarterback spot.
Prediction: Kentucky 40, Vanderbilt 10.
Rationale: Vandy last year was the loser in one of UK’s most dominating victories in school history — it set a single-game rushing record before breaking it a week later against Louisville — and it’s hard to see the Commodores staging much of a bid against any team in the league in 2020.
at Alabama (Nov. 21)
History: UK trails series 37-2-1.
Background: Since the formation of the SEC, Kentucky has beaten the Crimson Tide once in 28 meetings: 1997, with future No. 1 overall pick Tim Couch playing quarterback. The programs have played twice during Mark Stoops’ tenure; Kentucky failed to reach a double-digit scoring total in either game (the first was a 48-7 defeat, the second a 34-6 loss).
Prediction: Alabama 30, Kentucky 16.
Rationale: You saw that historical record, right? This Kentucky team is better-equipped to handle the ‘Bama Boys than most, but it’s still going to be a big underdog.
Florida (Nov. 28)
History: UK trails series 52-18.
Background: The Wildcats had lost 31 straight games to the Gators, one of the most lopsided stretches in the sport’s history, before scoring a 27-16 victory in Gainesville in 2018. Florida was ranked No. 8 in the preseason coaches poll.
Prediction: Kentucky 24, Florida 23.
Rationale: One can easily make the case that Kentucky, in most of its meetings with Florida during Stoops’ tenure, has been as good, or better. It has one win to show for it in seven tries. This game will probably be tight, and the Cats are fully capable of stealing another in The Swamp.
South Carolina (Dec. 5)
History: UK trails series 18-12-1.
Background: Kentucky has loosened the Gamecocks’ grip on this rivalry, claiming five victories in a row before last year’s 24-7 loss in Columbia. Two South Carolina offensive linemen, including returning starter Jordan Rhodes, have opted out of the 2020 season because of the pandemic.
Prediction: Kentucky 28, South Carolina 20.
Rationale: Last year’s effort in the Palmetto State was the Cats’ most lackluster of the Stoops era, and triggered a change at quarterback that spurred one of the most exciting finishes to a season in program history. A less offensively-challenged group in 2020 should be able to start a new streak in UK’s favor.
Kentucky’s final record: 7-3
Rationale: I think, as long as it stays relatively healthy, 5-5 is the floor for this Kentucky team, and given the program’s overall history, a .500 record against the SEC in a normal year would rank among the best, and in 2020? It’d be terrific. There are enough winnable games on the schedule for UK to finish with a winning ledger, though, so why not let optimism reign?
