How will UK football do in 2020? Dozens of predictions from inside and outside Kentucky.
Kentucky football season is finally here, and the Herald-Leader has asked dozens of reporters from inside the state and around the Southeastern Conference — as well as a few who cover the sport nationally — for their predictions on how the Wildcats will fare this fall.
The general consensus is that Mark Stoops will have one of his best teams yet in his eighth season leading UK’s program, though the all-SEC schedule — and the elimination of some gimme non-conference games — will obviously make things tougher on the Cats.
Still, the majority of those who responded — including a fair amount of college football reporters from outside the state — expect Kentucky to pull off a winning record against this tough SEC slate, which begins Saturday at Auburn.
Here’s what they had to say about this year’s Cats (including everyone’s picks for the 2020 SEC title game).
Predictions from Kentucky
John Clay, Herald-Leader: 6-4 — I think the pandemic season favors coaches who have been in place for a while, a description that fits Stoops in his eighth season. I think UK could even reach seven wins, but the grind of a 10-game SEC season will be tough for everyone.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Mark Story, Herald-Leader: 6-4 — Since the SEC began playing football in 1933, Kentucky has had a winning record in league games all of eight times. So against an all-SEC schedule, it will take an unusually strong UK team to produce a winning year. I think Mark Stoops has built an unusually strong UK team. (Check out Mark Story’s full game-by-game predictions for Kentucky).
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Josh Moore, Herald-Leader: 7-3 — I think this team is going to be really, really good, but acknowledge my prediction might be on the high end. I’d feel a lot *safer* saying 6-4, but here’s where I’m at: I feel confident in UK beating Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. I think they’re going to knock off Auburn in the season opener. You’re telling me they *absolutely* can’t win one more game from the other four? (Check out all of the coverage from UK beat writer Josh Moore).
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Ben Roberts, Herald-Leader: 6-4 — I like the Cats to win the games they’re expected to win and knock off either Auburn or Tennessee. A 6-4 record might not look incredibly special on paper, but — against this SEC-only schedule — it would be yet another sign of progress for a UK program that has finally earned respect outside the state. A real testament to the job Stoops and his coaching staff have done.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Darrell Bird, Cats’ Pause: 7-3 — College football has been turned on its head during the pandemic and there is no staff I trust more to navigate an unpredictable season than Mark Stoops’ group. They’ve had plenty of experience adjusting game plans to win on the fly, never more evident than last year’s antiquated run-first offense with Lynn Bowden. Besides, UK is loaded with experience and depth at every position.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Texas A&M.
Rick Bozich, WDRB: 6-4 — The schedule is not forgiving and Lynn Bowden Jr. will be difficult to replace, but Mark Stoops has built his program on a solid foundation.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama
Jeff Drummond, Cats Illustrated: 6-4 — With a terrific offensive line and perhaps the deepest defensive unit that Stoops has fielded to date, I feel like the potential is there for this team to exceed my prediction. I’m taking a bit of a conservative approach due to the revamped SEC schedule. After all, the Cats have broken .500 in the SEC only three times in my lifetime. They could play much better than last season and still wind up 5-5.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Louisiana State.
Keith Farmer, WLEX-18: 6-4 — To me this is a deep team. Maybe one of the deepest Wildcats teams I’ve ever covered. So if there is a year to have an SEC-only schedule this is it.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Aaron Gershon, Big Blue Insider: 7-3 — I feel Kentucky is one of the few teams’ in the SEC East that won’t be hurt by a shortened preseason. UK brings back some of the most experience in the SEC while several of their opponents will feature several new faces that have not had much time to build the chemistry Kentucky’s roster has already built. I see the Wildcats upsetting Georgia and putting together a 5-0 home record while also adding road wins at Missouri and Auburn while losing to Alabama, Florida and Tennessee.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Jon Hale, Courier Journal: 6-4 — I think Kentucky is the third-best team in the East. The depth is as good as it has ever been in Lexington, but there is still a gap between Georgia/Florida and Kentucky. With an SEC-only schedule and COVID-19 cases sure to affect every team at some point, that keeps me from picking the Wildcats to beat either of those teams and win the East. (Check out Jon Hale’s game-by-game predictions for the 2020 season).
SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
▪ Lee K. Howard, WKYT-27: 6-4 — This is probably the most difficult season to project due to so many nuances and outside factors. While I believe UK has a very good team, it’s going to be challenging with a 10-game SEC schedule. Lack of crowds could also be a positive or negative at home and on the road, and the biggest variable is the pandemic. If UK or their opponent loses a key player or position group for a game, it could have a major impact on the outcome.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Matt Jones, Kentucky Sports Radio: 6-4 — I think Kentucky has one of its best teams in my lifetime but the schedule makes it tough. They will be favored in five games and win all five, while stealing one of Auburn, Tennessee or Florida.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Bryan Kennedy, WTVQ-36: 7-3 — When looking at Kentucky‘s schedule, it breaks down to can they win the games they’re supposed to while also stealing two or three toss-up games? I think they can. I see wins vs. South Carolina, Ole Miss, Vandy and Mizzou. I also see them winning three of their tossups between Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida and Tennessee.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Braden Ramsey, Kentucky Kernel: 6-4 — Under normal circumstances, this team would challenge the 2018 one for the best record of the Mark Stoops era. It’s a very talented bunch in all areas, and after last season’s strong finish, the local hype and optimism is warranted. But an already difficult road slate was made even more so when Alabama was added, giving the Cats four road games against Top 25 teams and making a winning road record a big ask. I think when this season is done, we’ll think this team is the best one of Stoops’ tenure. It just won’t show in the record due to the unique schedule.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Nick Roush, Kentucky Sports Radio: 7-3 — 6-4 is the safe prediction, assuming the Cats split Auburn-Tennessee and lose to the other big three on the schedule. After watching experience in the trenches prevail in early college football games, I think there’s a big upset brewing. This is the year Stoops finally knocks off Georgia.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Justin Rowland, Cats Illustrated: 6-4 — Only one Kentucky team has finished with a winning record in SEC play since 1977. This team has the talent, depth, and balance to do it for the second time in three years but the schedule doesn’t leave much margin for error.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Shawn Smith, Go Big Blue Country: 7-3 — Experience and coaching staff continuity hold more weight in a season like 2020, where teams missed significant preparation time during the spring and summer. One of the best offensive lines in the SEC returns to protect Terry Wilson and lead the way for a stable of running backs. On the defensive side, Brad White’s group has the pieces to be one of the best units in the SEC.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Tim Sullivan, Courier Journal: 5-5 — Mark Stoops continues to make strides at Kentucky, but the climb is all uphill in the Southeastern Conference, particularly in a year with no non-conference cupcakes on the schedule.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Keith Taylor, Kentucky Today: 5-5 — Considering there are no non-conference games, it doesn’t give UK much of a chance to get into a flow, but every team is in the same boat. Kentucky does have experience coming back and that helps in terms of preparation for a 10-game SEC schedule. It will be interesting to see how every team responds carrying the weight of a pandemic on their shoulders.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Derek Terry, Cats’ Pause: 6-4 — I think Kentucky is in a better spot as a program than Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. I’m picking them to win one of the five games against Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and Alabama. I don’t think it’s impossible to win more than one of those games, but I picked 6-4 as the most likely scenario.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Larry Vaught, Vaught’s Views: 7-3 — Even after covering UK football for 45 years, there’s no track record for a 10-game SEC season. So why not go with the heart and pick 7-3? UK has more starters returning than most teams and the deepest roster ever at UK. I am counting on wins at Auburn and Tennessee but don’t think UK will beat Georgia, Alabama or Florida. But with Terry Wilson back and Landon Young proclaiming this a football state, make it 7-3.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Picks from outside Kentucky
Parrish Alford, Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal: 5-5 — The loss of Lynn Bowden is massive, but they should be able to run the ball. Mark Stoops has built a solid foundation, and the program won’t fall off the map because of the loss of one great player.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Bill Bender, Sporting News: 6-4 — Mark Stoops brings back a lot of talent, and the schedule is divided into five games they need (including Ole Miss and Mississippi State) and five tough games against ranked teams. Can the Wildcats be perfect in the first five and steal a few wins in the grinder? The Auburn and Tennessee games will tell the tale. A winning season is in the cards, even if the Georgia, Florida and Alabama games are long shots.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Ben Breiner, The State (Columbia, S.C.): 5-5 — Getting both Mississippi schools at home is a good break. Those plus Missouri and Vandy should be four wins. At Tennessee and South Carolina at home feels like a split and catching four top-10 teams would be a tall task for anyone.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Michael Casagrande, AL.com: 5-5 — This is such a weird season with so many unknowns but there are few gimmes when the non-conference games are eliminated. The status of Joey Gatewood will also be a factor in the Wildcats’ success.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Robert Cessna, The Eagle (Bryan, Texas): 6-4 — The Wildcats have the talent and depth to finish third in the East if they can win one of their big road games. It’s going to be hard to win at Auburn, Alabama or Florida, but that’s what it’s going to take for Kentucky to take that next step. Kentucky is better than it gets credit for, but unfortunately, many think that win over Florida two years ago was a fluke. It wasn’t, but it’s hard to earn respect in a top-heavy division, especially when a name program such as Tennessee is trying to do the same.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Pat Dooley, Gainesville Sun: 6-4 — I have Kentucky at 6-4 and that’s only because Mark Stoops will find a way to have a winning record. The Wildcats could even be a surprise contender in the East.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Roman Harper, SEC Network: 7-3 — They lose to Georgia and Alabama. Will that game at Florida be one that they can bounce back against after Alabama loss? If so, then they could possibly win eight. I think Kentucky’s defensive backs are the part of the team that doesn’t get enough love. They play really well as a group and that says that the Back 7 is all on the same page when it comes to zone drops and communication. I think the coverage on the back end will help allow them to get after teams up front and be very competitive in the East. Having Terry Wilson back makes everyone more excited on the offense, because now the receivers aren’t going to be asked just to block this year. The offense should be better and Terry Wilson just wins.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Bob Holt, Arkansas Democrat-Gazette: 5-5 — I think the Cats will be able to go .500, and 6-4 wouldn’t shock me, because Mark Stoops has established the program by building it up year after year with good recruiting classes. UK has experience at quarterback, an experienced offensive line, and a lot of starters back on defense. There also is stability on the coaching staff with Stoops going into his eighth season. For all those reasons, I like how UK football is trending.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Alyssa Lang, SEC Network: 7-3 — If we learned anything in 2019, it’s that Kentucky can roll with the punches, which will be crucial this season. A healthy, hungry Terry Wilson + a loaded backfield + an OC who earned his PhD in Offensive Wizardry last year = a treat to watch. Add that to a defense full of returning production, and Kentucky will pose a legitimate threat to the SEC East race this year.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Brett McMurphy, WatchStadium.com: 6-4 — The SEC road schedule is brutal, but with an upset the Wildcats could finish 7-3. Mark Stoops is the best/most underrated coach in the country. Because UK is not an SEC football behemoth, he doesn’t get enough credit competing in the nation’s best conference. I expected a fifth-consecutive winning record and bowl game (that is, if there are bowl games in 2020).
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: 5-5 — UK is probably better than that record, but with five of their top six opponents on the road, doing better than that will be a challenge. The schedule-makers did them no favors, in particular with road games against Alabama and Auburn in their cross-division matchups.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
David Paschall, Chattanooga Times Free Press: 6-4 — It will either be 6-4 or 5-5, with the swing games being the trips to Auburn and Tennessee. Kentucky has become incredibly sound and stable under Mark Stoops, but the Wildcats won’t be able to hang with Alabama and Georgia, and a second straight triumph in the Swamp is unlikely. Games against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt and South Carolina should not only be wins but potentially double-digit wins. Auburn-Kentucky is the most intriguing matchup of the opening weekend.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
Jordan Rodgers, SEC Network: 6-4 — Kentucky will pick up right where they left off last year being dominant on the ground, but with a dynamic playmaker like Terry Wilson back, they will now be balanced and dangerous. Front 7 is as good as there is in the East right now. The schedule is BRUTAL with four preseason top-10 opponents. They have the talent to pull off an upset in a few of those.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Adam Sparks, The Tennessean: 4-6 — Kentucky is no longer a likely win for SEC opponents. The Wildcats are a tough matchup because of their physicality and toughness, and they can thank Mark Stoops for that. The defense should be good. The offensive line will be physical, which should allow UK to run the ball well. That being said, the offense can’t be one-dimensional this season. Unless there is an upgrade at QB, I think the lack of a passing game leads to at least a couple of losses that could have otherwise been wins.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Souichi Terada, Kansas City Star: 4-6 — Want to say Kentucky will surprise some people with the talent on its team, but the record won’t be what fans want mostly because it’s the SEC and nearly every game is brutal.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Blake Toppmeyer, Knoxville News Sentinel: 5-5 — I really like what Kentucky has assembled entering this season, particularly on the offensive line and throughout its defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wildcats exceed my prediction and win at least six games — particularly if a solid quarterback emerges.
▪ SEC title game: Florida vs. Alabama.
Marc Weiszer, Athens Banner-Herald: 5-5 — The season could offer its share of unpredictable results due to players out due to COVID. Kentucky’s opener at Auburn has possible — just possible — upset written all over it. This feels like a 5-5 Wildcats season. That may not sound great but in an SEC-only grind, it’s not half bad and should put the Wildcats in the middle of the SEC East pack. Keeping Terry Wilson on the field is paramount given his 12-3 record as starting quarterback. It doesn’t bode well for the Wildcats that not a single defensive player made the coaches’ preseason All-SEC first or second team.
▪ SEC title game: Georgia vs. Alabama.
This story was originally published September 21, 2020 at 7:48 AM.
