UK at Auburn predictions: Cats must contain ‘Brett Favre’-like QB to play spoiler
It’s almost game time. Here are some final thoughts on how Kentucky’s game against Auburn might play out Saturday in Alabama.
Low Bo
Reigning Southeastern Conference Freshman of the Year Bo Nix set multiple school freshman records (yardage, completions, attempts and touchdown passes) in 2019 and has completed 191 consecutive passes, second only to future No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence when it comes to active streaks. He also rushed for 313 yards and seven touchdowns. It stands to reason that the play of the former No. 1 quarterback prospect in the country will only improve in his second year on campus.
Nix last year had four games in which he threw for 200 or more passing yards. Kentucky last season surrendered 200-plus passing yards only four times, and only once allowed it to a single quarterback (Eastern Michigan’s Mike Glass threw for 337 yards). It was 2-2 in those games, Nix was 3-1 in his.
Brad White’s defense, overall, was the nation’s second-best in passing yards and touchdowns allowed last season, and it returns all but one starter (Jordan Griffin) while adding another former starter, Davonte Robinson, back into the fold after recovering from a leg injury. The secondary already ran deep and was bolstered by a talented group of freshmen already making their case for snaps; Saturday represents not only a chance to see if those cases were strong enough, but how well the defensive backs as a whole hold up against one of the best passers it’ll see all season.
The trenches
Applying consistent pressure to Nix would be a big help, of course. In the Tigers’ four losses last year, he was sacked at least twice in three. Only one returning Auburn lineman, Nick Brahms, has started for the Tigers (10 in 17 appearances), though offseason acquisition Brandon Council made 24 starts at Akron and figures to provide some unconventional stability. It’d be in UK’s best interest for Josh Paschal and Boogie Watson to attack Nix early and, depending on how much daylight they see, often.
The changeover in up-front personnel can make studying film a little more difficult, so UK’s focus is on “attacking the scheme.”
“You’ve got to pick and choose when you want try to pressure (Nix),” White said Wednesday. “When you watch his film, there’s plenty of times when there’s free runners and free blitzers that have a clear shot, and he’s got a knack to make a guy miss. Just a subtle move, a shoulder move, he’ll slide up the pocket, down the pocket, around. He’s very much a gunslinger in that regard. When you watch him, he kind of plays like Brett Favre played the game. He’s loose and free and fun.”
Kentucky’s offensive line should have the advantage over its opposites up front; UK returns four multi-year starters (including preseason All-SEC selections in Drake Jackson, Darian Kinnard and Landon Young) while Auburn’s defensive line counts 25 total starts across all returning players. The Tigers’ first wave should not be underestimated, however: seniors Big Kat Bryant (a first-team All-SEC pick) and Tyrone Truesdell, in particular, could prove troublesome.
Still, UK should have a major day up front.
“Big men lead the way, and we’ll be as good as they are up front,” co-offensive coordinator Eddie Gran said. “ ... They’re gonna find out real quick against the Auburn defense how good we are and how good we can be.”
Terry time
Terry Wilson will have as good an offensive line in front of him as any quarterback in the country. There aren’t many quarterbacks coming back from a torn patellar tendon, though.
Wilson is sure that he’s 100 percent ready to play.
“I have full confidence in my leg,” Wilson said. “I’ve had this whole camp to be able to get used to it and I’m just ready to get out there. I’m not thinking about anything that’s gonna be difficult.”
A somewhat silent indicator of Wilson’s actual comfort level out there on Saturday could be turnovers. He was turnover-free in his limited action last year, but threw 11 interceptions and lost four of nine fumbles in 2019.
Co-offensive coordinator Eddie Gran said this week that Wilson has been secure with the ball through camp.
“I’ve been really excited about that part,” Gran said. “Now it’s gonna be, when everything’s going in a game-like situation, pulling the trigger, finding the open guy, and then creating. He’ll create with his legs, so I’m excited to see what he’s ready to do.”
My hunch: Wilson struggles a bit early on because of “rust,” but gets his feet under him and plays at a level needed for Kentucky to prevail. He doesn’t need to be extraordinary for that to happen.
Final predictions
Kentucky 24, Auburn 21: If you ignore the names on the jerseys as well as history (Auburn is 26-6-1 against the Wildcats all-time), I’m not so sure this game wouldn’t be a “pick ‘em.” As it is, the Tigers are a 7.5-point favorite at home over a team that, on paper, matches up with them incredibly well. I’m betting that experience wins the day for Kentucky in a rare season opener against an SEC foe.
The last word
Linebacker DeAndre Square on being the first Wildcat to wear Chris Oats’ jersey number, 22, in a game as part of a season-long tribute:
“It’s an honor to wear his jersey on Saturday. It’s been tough because I know he’s been working hard and he wants to be out here. Going through practices and not having him out there, it’s kind of tough, but we just come out there every day, every week, just work hard for him, knowing that he’s working hard on his own.”
Season opener
No. 23 Kentucky at No. 8 Auburn
Noon Saturday (SEC Network)
