Most of the numbers say UK should be winning. One statistic is holding them back.
Kentucky through two games outpaces its opponents in several offensive categories: total offense (943 to 783 yards), first downs (47 to 42), rushing yardage (553 to 230) and average time of possession (36:17 to 23:43).
Unfortunately for the Wildcats, those statistical wins have added up to zero victories. That’s at least somewhat attributable to one other statistic in which it leads its opponents: turnovers.
UK officially has four in 2020, though that number doesn’t factor in failed fourth-down conversions (the Cats have held their foes to 0-for-2 this season, but they’re 0-for-3 themselves). It’s one of six teams in the country averaging two turnovers per game, and none of the six have winning records. Mississippi State, the Cats’ next opponent, has the only .500 ledger at 1-1.
Neither Auburn nor Mississippi committed a turnover against Kentucky.
“The disappointing part really comes from the defensive side of the ball, that we’re not getting turnovers,” head coach Mark Stoops said during his Monday news conference. “That is concerning to me. It’s not good enough. It seems like, both games, the football’s floating around down there, they did a nice job of scooping up, but we have to create it. We have to create some turnovers.”
The offense isn’t guilt-free, of course: three of those turnovers were fumbles, which Stoops said can be controlled and are inexcusable. Interceptions are more forgivable, depending on the circumstances.
“You can get a tip, you can get a receiver running a wrong route, you can get a good defensive play,” Stoops said. “Things happen.”
Generating turnovers would improve Kentucky’s chances against a slate that over the next three weeks features two top-15 teams and a team previously ranked in the top 25. The latter squad, Mississippi State, managed to defeat defending national champion LSU by a double-digit margin despite turning the ball over four times; it did the same thing against Arkansas over the weekend and walked away the victim of a 21-14 upset.
If it can reduce its inefficiencies elsewhere — the Cats have committed as many penalties as their opponents (12) but for about 40 more yards worth of punishment, and have allowed opponents to convert on nearly half their third-down tries (10 of 22) — that’d help, too. Mental breakdowns have been a surprising blight early on for a team that brought back as much experience as any team in the Southeastern Conference, and if they’re not coming up with extra possessions, there’s no way any of that can continue.
The glass-half full take: A whole lot has gone wrong for Kentucky, self-inflicted and less so, and it’s only a few possessions away from being 2-0 rather than 0-2. Alas, ifs and buts ...
“When you fall to 0-2, you can respond with a reality check of ‘the situation is what it is,’ and you can fold to the pressure,” Stoops said. “Or you can rise above it and man up, own it and move on.”
Secondary
Of 74 teams playing major college football, Kentucky ranks 74th in pass efficiency defense. Opponents are completing 71.4 percent of their attempts against UK and have thrown for seven touchdowns, the most given up by any SEC team through two weeks of play.
“There were times when we just flat out didn’t compete well enough,” Stoops said of Saturday’s loss to Ole Miss. “ ... We’ve gotta find the right mixture. We had some guys that set a couple things free that we don’t normally do with access and guys running down the field with deception.”
He wasn’t asked specifically about the secondary when discussing the merits of playing guys who aren’t experienced versus riding with those who’ve been there and done that, but this comment could apply to that group, which is stocked with talent but could have probably used some tune-ups against non-SEC competition.
“There’s maybe some cases where you feel like athletically some guys can help you, but mentally they’re hurting you,” Stoops said. “ ... We’ve all got to do a better job of putting them in position and everybody owning their area of expertise.”
No Smoke
Running back Kavosiey Smoke will probably miss at least a couple weeks with a rib injury. Smoke rushed for 29 yards on five carries against the Rebels, and suffered the injury as a result of a horse-collar tackle, Stoops said.
Smoke usually is listed alongside Chris Rodriguez with an “OR” designation as the backup to senior A.J. Rose. He was absent from this week’s depth chart.
“He broke a rib, or cartilage in his ribs, or whatever,” Stoops said. “It’s a pretty painful injury. It just depends how long he’ll be out. We’ll see how the pain goes.”
Rodriguez was the only backup listed behind Rose this week, but redshirt freshman Travis Tisdale or true freshman JuTahn McClain could get carries against the Bulldogs on Saturday. McClain has appeared on special teams in both games; Tisdale, who scored his first career touchdown against last season, returned a kickoff for 13 yards against Ole Miss.
Schedule update
UK’s road game at Tennessee on Oct. 17 has been scheduled for a noon kickoff. It will air on either ESPN or the SEC Network; Auburn at South Carolina is the competing noon kickoff for that broadcast window, which will be decided after Saturday’s games are completed.
Next game
No. 16 Mississippi State at Kentucky
When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Kroger Field (limited spectators)
TV: SEC Network
Records: Mississippi State 1-1, Kentucky 0-2
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: Mississippi State leads 24-23
Last meeting: Mississippi State won 28-13 on Sept. 21, 2019, at Starkville, Miss.
