UK-Mississippi State predictions: Can the Cats smash the SEC’s top run-stoppers?
It’s almost game time. Here are some final thoughts on how Kentucky’s game against Mississippi State might play out Saturday in Lexington.
Run done?
Kentucky had its way with Mississippi on the ground last weekend. How will the Rebels’ Egg Bowl rival fare?
Going back to last season, UK has rushed for at least 150 yards in nine of its last 10 games (it just missed that mark at Auburn, where it finished with 145) and has eclipsed 300 yards rushing in seven of those efforts, including last week against Ole Miss (408). Through two weeks, the Wildcats lead the Southeastern Conference in rushing attempts (48), yards (276.5) per game and average per rush (5.8).
Auburn and Ole Miss after two weeks rank 13th and 14th, respectively, in rushing defense among conference teams. Mississippi State, on the other hand, leads the league in that category, having surrendered only 143 total rushing yards this year to LSU and Arkansas. Two games is a small sample size, but something’s gotta give this weekend in Lexington: Do the Bulldogs wall up the Wildcats or will Kentucky impose its will on the ground again?
For what it’s worth, Kentucky last year came up with 241 rushing yards in a 28-13 loss in Starkville, and that was before Lynn Bowden took over at quarterback. It’ll see a much different look in 2020 — first-year Bulldogs defensive coordinator Zach Arnett, who employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme, led San Diego State to a top-10 ranking in several categories in 2019, including rushing defense — but if there’s anything Kentucky can be counted on to do, it’s rushing the football.
With Kavosiey Smoke sidelined with a rib injury, it sounds like the Cats will lean more on Chris Rodriguez and A.J. Rose instead of mixing in a third running back, so that might affect things some depending on how much is asked of each. Still, I don’t expect Mississippi State to be the first team this season to keep UK from reaching a high mark, and it certainly won’t hold the Wildcats below three figures.
“They do what they do and we’ve got a game plan,” Rodriguez told reporters this week. “We’re gonna go execute.”
Secondary shows up
It’s been easy to decry the play of Kentucky’s secondary. Criticism lobbed at it so far has been earned, particularly after last weekend’s showing. But, call me crazy, I think the unit comes to play on Saturday.
Saturday’s game actually pits the league’s two “square in the middle” defenses, in terms of pass coverage, against one another: UK ranks seventh in the SEC, allowing 276.5 yards per game, while Mississippi State has given up 278.5 yards per game through the air. Those allowances don’t sound great, but both are bettering title contenders Florida (327.5) and Alabama (294), and aren’t that much worse than Tennessee (254). As offenses across college football continue to ramp up their tempo, the days of consistently giving up less than 200 passing yards might be behind everybody; so far, only Georgia (190) is below that threshold in the SEC this season.
It’s difficult to know what to expect from K.J. Costello, the Bulldogs’ quarterback. He set school records against LSU before looking out of sorts all night against Arkansas, which picked him off three times. Losing Kylin Hill early didn’t do him any favors against the Razorbacks, either, but he did still throw for 313 yards and completed about 73 percent of his passes; that’s not exactly encouraging if you’re a Wildcats fan. So when I say, “I think the unit comes to play,” I don’t necessarily mean Costello will be held to a catastrophic passing figure (by Mike Leach’s standards, at least); it’s just going to clean up some of the things that have held it back (bad/missed tackles, blown assignments) enough to keep the Bulldogs guessing.
Hill factor
Speaking of Kylin Hill: Leach expects the 2019 All-SEC First Team selection to be available this weekend. That could prove troublesome.
Hill’s potency as a receiver was demonstrated against LSU. If he turns passes out of the backfield into yards like he did against the Tigers, then Kentucky is in for a long night. But don’t rule out a stout rushing performance: Hill last year ran for 120 yards and three touchdowns against the Wildcats, and while they are rare, terrific rushing days aren’t unheard of from the Air Raid. Max Borghi, Washington State’s lead back last year, had three 100-yard rushing games and averaged 57 receiving yards on 6.3 receptions in those same performances.
It’ll be especially important this week for the Wildcats’ defensive front to maintain its level of execution and keep Hill from getting to the second level, whether as a rusher or pass-catcher. If at full strength, he’s plenty capable of wrecking Kentucky’s Saturday on his own. Running backs so far haven’t been too lethal, but Hill is one of the best they’ll see and has the benefit of having succeeded against this defense before.
“He does most of his work out of the backfield, so it doesn’t change sort of the structure of how we approach it,” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said of defending Hill. “We just know the danger that he becomes once he gets out of that position.”
Final predictions
Kentucky 38, Mississippi State 35: Surely I won’t start this year off 0-3, right? More importantly, the Cats really need to avoid digging their hole deeper with two ranked foes on deck after the Bulldogs. Unless their defense just absolutely brings it, this’ll probably play out very similarly to last week. State’s offense isn’t the same as Mississippi’s, but it’s plenty potent and Leach will be looking to put a hurtin’ on a school he might feel should have hired him at some point over the last decade. I still believe in the home team; do you?
MVP: Yusuf Corker. He comes up with the Wildcats’ first interception of the season, which proves incredibly pivotal in a contest where about every possession ends in points.
The last word
Head coach Mark Stoops on some dismissive remarks about his program made by SEC Network broadcaster Paul Finebaum:
“It’s our fault for giving Paul the opportunity to talk about that. That’s his job, isn’t it, to say whatever the he wants? That’s up to him, I can’t control that. ... Just like years past, we string some wins together and start doing some good things, I’m sure my phone will be ringing and asking me to be back on the show. That doesn’t surprise me. It is what is is. When you’re down, people are gonna try to kick ya and win you’re winning they’re gonna ask you to be on their show.”
This story was originally published October 9, 2020 at 7:14 AM.
