UK-Tennessee predictions: Early start gives some pause, but QB play will matter more
It’s almost game time. Here are some final thoughts on how Kentucky’s game against Tennessee might play out Saturday in Knoxville, Tenn.
Silly streak
How’s this for a weird, meaningless (?) statistic: Kentucky’s record against Southeastern Conference teams during the early broadcast window.
For much of the last couple decades, 12:30 p.m. and 1 p.m. were the earliest kickoff times (Eastern) across the SEC, but the proliferation of increased consumer availability to broadcasts (and, probably, the length of those broadcasts) around the middle of last decade saw the earliest possible kickoff times creep up to noon. For the sake of this trek through history, the “early window” is defined as any game kicking off before 3 p.m.
Since it defeated Tennessee in an early-broadcast kickoff (12:21 p.m., to be exact) in the 2011 season finale (and ending a 26-game losing streak to the Volunteers), Kentucky is 2-11 in games against SEC opponents in that time slot, most recently falling to Auburn, 29-13, to begin the 2020 campaign. Saturday’s game is a noon start.
Kentucky has played in only eight such games under head coach Mark Stoops, whose teams have posted a 2-6 record against league foes in that time slot (the five other losses since 2011 were all in Joker Phillips’ last season). That win percentage, 25 percent, is lower than UK’s win percentage against SEC teams in all other broadcast windows against SEC foes under Stoops; his teams that meet that criteria are 19-32, including the Wildcats’ last two results, which is good for a 37.3 win percentage. (If you include Joker’s last season, UK’s total win percentage against SEC foes in all other broadcast windows since 2011 dips to 35 percent.)
It’s at least mildly interesting that one of UK’s only wins over Tennessee since 1984 came in an early kickoff. The other, in 2017, was a 7:30 kickoff. But, other than a shortened window for tailgating, what’s all this mean? Honestly, probably nothing.
Would Kentucky have been less likely to beat Mississippi State last weekend in Lexington had it kicked off at noon instead of 7:30 p.m.? Out of context, the numbers suggest that Kentucky might have been a hair worse off, but raw numbers don’t account for the strength of opponents played in those time slots (early or not so) nor the strength of those Kentucky teams. (Example: Stoops’ first three squads, demonstrably the worst of his tenure, played 18 of a possible 24 SEC games in the later broadcast windows; they won two of those games, both against South Carolina teams that, in hindsight, weren’t that mighty. Would the Gamecocks have had a better chance at noon? Doubtful.)
Still, after several years without them, UK is getting a healthy dose of early SEC starts — the Missouri game is already slated to be a nooner, too, putting three of its first six games in that category — and opportunities to catch opponents who might still be in bed. Any semblance of an advantage the Cats can gain in Knoxville should be relished.
(In case you’re curious: Tennessee since 2011 is 5-7 in early-broadcast kickoffs against SEC teams.)
Quarterback battle
One could argue that it’s a cop-out to say the team with the better quarterback play on a given day should win the game. Call this a cop-out.
Tennessee’s primary pass tosser has finished with a higher quarterback rating in all four of their most recent meetings. Kentucky’s only win in that sample, 2017, came mostly via the legs of Benny Snell (180 yards, three touchdowns) as well as Stephen Johnson, who accumulated 84 yards and a TD on six carries to make up for a lackluster passing day (46 yards on 6-for-15 passing, good for a 65.8 percent rating).
A prolific rushing performance from Lynn Bowden (114 yards) last year against Tennessee was not enough to overcome a 4-for-7 passing day that included an interception, given up on an attempt to hit a wide-open target downfield. The Wildcats led much of that game until the Volunteers inserted Jarrett Guarantano off the bench, who changed their fortunes in a hurry (he finished 7-for-8 for 115 yards and two TDs, a passer rating of 290.8 to Bowden’s 58.6).
Guarantano outdueled Terry Wilson in 2018, when the Cats were licking their wounds after a defeat to Georgia that virtually knocked them out of SEC title contention. Kentucky needs Wilson to win the day, or at least make it close to a push, for an upset to happen in Knoxville. His play to this point, I think, has been decent. I don’t know for sure that decent gets it done against one of the team’s better defenses; at 384.7 yards allowed per game, Tennessee ranks fifth in the league (right behind UK, 359.3). The nine teams below them are giving up at least 400 yards each time out.
Wilson played one of his best games as a Wildcat against Mississippi. If we see something like that, UK has a great shot.
Momentum
Something else kind of interesting when you look at the most recent games in this series: Tennessee has benefited more from the schedule than UK.
In three of the four years, UT beat up on a non-Power Five school before playing UK. The only year it didn’t was 2017, when a 45-7 loss to Alabama was followed up with a 29-26 loss to the Cats. Kentucky in all four seasons was coming off another SEC game, twice against Georgia (both losses), a loss to Mississippi State (2017) and a win over Missouri last season.
The Volunteers are coming off a disheartening loss to Georgia, against whom they built a halftime lead before getting blasted over the final 30 minutes, coughing up the ball three times and overall looking unready for the moment. Kentucky overcame a woeful offensive outing and played its best game across the board elsewhere to finally get in the win column against Mississippi State.
UK, looking to affirm fans’ beliefs that this can still be a special season, has the edge when it comes to motivation. Beating Kentucky isn’t special for the Volunteers; on the flip side, though? It’d be massive, and is made even bigger with Georgia on deck.
Final predictions
Tennessee 20, Kentucky 19: Despite what recent outcomes suggest when compared to the extended history, this “rivalry” is as close as it’s been in decades. The issue, of course, is the win-loss column, and until it can reliably crank out wins against the Volunteers, it’s hard to pick Kentucky. It very well may be the better team of the two (I thought so coming into 2020, for what it’s worth), but was the better team each of the last two seasons and that didn’t matter much.
MVP: Chris Rodriguez. He needs to have a Benny Snell-like performance to complement a solid effort from Wilson in order to put UK in position to upset the hosts. The Cats won’t get away with an anemic offense this weekend.
The last word
Defensive tackle Phil Hoskins, one of several linemen upon whom head coach Mark Stoops heaped praise this week, was made available to media via Zoom following Wednesday’s practice. During his interview, Hoskins wore a shirt featuring an image of the anime character Naruto.
“I love Naruto, but my favorite character in this show has to be Rock Lee, just because he didn’t have a power. He just grinded constantly. My favorite anime, I would say, is Dragonball Z. Because their desire and their willpower to win. Even in a battle, if they’re losing, they will always find a way to win. And that’s how I go about everything, even on the field. Like, it sounds weird, but I’ve always felt like I had a little superpower, and that’s my power: I just refuse to lose.”
