Tennessee at Kentucky predictions: Can Cats revive the run against fiery Vols?
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the Kentucky Wildcats’ game against Tennessee might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday night.
Offense vs. Offense
Tennessee is 2-3 in its conference games, in which it’s averaged 478.2 yards per contest, about 20 more yards than its season-long mark. Its defense has been more porous in SEC play: it’s allowed 393.8 yards per game, overall, but 471 against its league brethren. Missouri (396) and South Carolina (370) are the only conference teams it has held under 500 yards of offense and, predictably, the only two teams it has beaten.
The Gamecocks on Oct. 9 were able to outpace their season average (328.6) on offense but gave up about 130 more yards to Tennessee than they allow on average (343.4) in a 45-20 loss. They also gave away the ball twice. That’s an act at which Kentucky has gotten really proficient; UK is worst in the nation with a minus-12 turnover margin and is tied with four others with 16 turnovers lost this season, fifth most among FBS teams.
South Carolina merits particular mention because Kentucky is much closer to it in total offensive production. UK ranks 12th in the league at 366.3 yards per game, ahead of just the Gamecocks and Vanderbilt. The Cats have reached 300 or more yards just twice in SEC play — at South Carolina (332) and against LSU (475) — and haven’t gotten anything from their run game the last two weeks. SEC teams are averaging nearly 200 yards on the ground against the Vols, so sound the alarm if struggles continue there on Saturday.
Establishing and committing to the run should be priority Nos. 1, 2 and 3 for Kentucky on offense this week. Controlling the pace of the game on that side will be as crucial as executing on defense when it comes to keeping Tennessee off track. Achieving that starts by making sure Chris Rodriguez has been able to recover from the “issue” that affected his play last week in Starkville.
Offensive coordinator Liam Coen says Rodriguez has had “great” practices this week.
“You don’t always have to beat it into ‘em,” Coen said. “He knows that it hasn’t been good enough and it’s not to his standard. It’s not to our standard. I believe that he’ll come out with a different mentality and the right mentality to play a really good game on Saturday night.”
Tennessee’s offense, all told, looks to be where Kentucky’s would like to be, in terms of balance and burst. A year after finishing in the league’s bottom five, the Volunteers rank fourth in the SEC with 225.4 rushing yards — nearly 100 yards better than last season. How the visitors fare on Saturday will be demonstrative in terms of how far they’ve come in half a season under Josh Heupel, or — Kentucky hopes — how improved it is at tackling from a week ago. The Wildcats missed 21 of those at Mississippi State, defensive coordinator Brad White said.
“If you put the films back to back, of the year before (against Mississippi State) and this one, that was a big difference,” White said. “ ... We drifted to much, and coming out of those breaks there weren’t sharp angles. It puts you in a bad position to tackle. You’ve got to come down with bad intentions. You’ve got to really want to go put your face on somebody to tackle players in the SEC, and I don’t think we necessarily did that.”
Hot and cold
Volunteers quarterback Hendon Hooker has completed 68.7 percent of his passes this season for 1,578 yards and 17 touchdowns with just two interceptions (he’s added 416 yards and four TDs on 101 rushes). Kentucky is allowing the highest completion percentage (68.6%) and third-most completions (22.4) per game in the SEC; the former number is the third-highest mark among all Power Five programs (Kansas and Kansas State are worse). That sounds like a combination wrought with potential disaster for the home team.
Weather could be a factor that brings some balance. Hooker experienced muscle spasms in reaction to temperatures in the low 30s and heavy wind in his final game at Virginia Tech on Dec. 5. Saturday’s forecast in Lexington calls for similar temperatures, but light wind, around kickoff. It’s probably not something on which Kentucky should depend, but it’s something to keep in mind.
Colder weather, presumably, won’t be punishing to Will Levis, who spent his first three years at Penn State and whose high school playoff games were played in average temperatures similar to what Saturday night’s will be. Between that and being back in the friendly confines of Kroger Field, perhaps Levis can rediscover his ability to connect on deep balls, which have been absent from UK’s offensive repertoire going back to the Florida game.
Coming into the week, Levis ranks 64th in passing efficiency. Hooker is third. (For comparison’s sake, Will Rogers, who picked apart Kentucky’s defense en route to an SEC record, ranks 59th.)
“We want to try to get him calmed back down, get our balance and try to get him easier throws early on,” Coen said. “We took the shot after the targeting (penalty) and that probably wasn’t a great call. ... I can help him out in that situation by just giving him an easier completion that early in the game, specifically.”
Josh Ali looked spry in his return from a knee injury that sidelined him in Kentucky’s two games prior to the Mississippi State trip. If he remains at full strength, and if DeMarcus Harris continues to show up as a reliable No. 3 option in the receiving corps, it’ll keep defenses from keying in as much on Wan’Dale Robinson, to whom Levis has been prone to force shots. Kentucky will need as many hands on deck — and as few mistakes as possible — to match the Volunteers’ offensive potency, especially if they get out to a fast start (they’ve outscored their opponents 124-30 in the first quarter).
That, in turn, should lift the defense.
“Most of the times when we mess up, we mess up ourselves,” Ali said. “ ... The offense, we have to do things in a game to give the defense energy. We can’t keep having them going out in short (yardage) so many times.”
Final predictions
Kentucky 27, Tennessee 24: If Kentucky’s defense and Will Levis both regain their composure, the Wildcats should be in good shape to take their third game against the Volunteers in the last five years. They’ve not beaten Tennessee in consecutive seasons since 1976-1977, and fans are well-versed in Kentucky’s bad history when it comes to this “rivalry.” Both teams are coming off two straight losses to teams ranked in the College Football Playoff committee’s top 20. The Volunteers’ biggest question mark — can it stop a good team from moving the ball? — aligns well for the Wildcats if they’re able to get momentum going again on offense. The home team wins a close one on Saturday.
MVP: Matt Ruffolo. Told ya, it’s gonna be tight; he connects on a game-deciding field goal in the fourth quarter, his third of the game.
Good gamble: My hunch is that this’ll be a back-and-forth affair, regardless of who comes out on top. Throw a little dough on “No” on the for bets involving “three straight scores by either team;” several sites had it at +200 or better.
The last word
Kentucky has split its last four games against the Volunteers. Josh Paschal is a senior with an opportunity to have three wins over Tennessee, which would be a first for a UK football player since the 1950s. Said Paschal:
“Every year when we play them, it’s personal. You don’t want to say too much. You want to go out there and speak with your pads, so that’s what we’re going to do.”
This story was originally published November 5, 2021 at 6:45 AM.
