Way-too-early SEC football rankings: After Alabama and Georgia, is Kentucky the best?
The top of the Southeastern Conference in 2022 should look a lot like it did in 2021.
Alabama brings back its Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Georgia for the first time in 41 years will have the benefit of title-winning swagger, and Texas A&M signed the No. 1 recruiting class in all of college football. The “haves” aren’t going anywhere, but there’s a ton of intrigue across the league — and that’s before seven months’ worth of further offseason developments. College football never stops.
With that in mind, here are my way, way, way-too early rankings for the conference this fall.
1. Alabama
Except for, perhaps, in Athens, Ga., this isn’t a controversial call. The Crimson Tide bring back Bryce Young (4,872 passing yards, 47 touchdown passes in 2021) and linebacker Will Anderson, a true sophomore who in 2021 was awarded the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the nation’s best defensive player. Alabama is going to lose its typical share of studs to the NFL Draft, and it’s not going to matter; a true freshman receiver (Agiye Hall) was forced into action against Georgia on Monday night and was a couple catches away from etching his name in Crimson Tide lore in his first year on campus. Alabama has guys on its practice squad who would start at other SEC schools; it’s going to be just fine this fall.
2. Georgia
The Bulldogs’ defense shouldn’t be as intimidating in 2022 — it’ll be without Jordan Davis, projected as a high first-round pick, Nakobe Dean, one of the best draft-eligible linebackers available, and coordinator Dan Lanning, now the head coach at Oregon. Several others on that side of the ball are likely to move on, as should running back James Cook and receiver George Pickens. But, the Bulldogs have mostly run the Eastern Division since Kirby Smart took the reins in 2016 — they’ve played in four of the six SEC championship games played since — and should be given the benefit of the doubt, especially if they’re able to improve their ceiling at quarterback (sorry, Stetson Bennett).
3. Kentucky
Surprise?! Well, not so much if you paid attention to what the Wildcats achieved in 2021 despite having just one standout wide receiver (Wan’Dale Robinson) in a new-look offense and a defense that frequently disappointed when it came to its pass coverage. Robinson is moving to the pro ranks, as are defensive end Josh Paschal and Yusuf Corker — the only defensive back from whom UK got consistent snaps all year — but several multi-year starters and contributors — running back Chris Rodriguez and a trio of “super-senior” linebackers — are back in the fold along with quarterback Will Levis, who could blossom into one of the best passers in the country this fall. The Wildcats for the first time under Mark Stoops should shoulder the weight of high expectations from outside their locker room; how they respond with a favorable schedule in front of them will be telling.
4. Texas A&M
Most are likely to rank the Aggies at No. 3, and that’s certainly not outlandish. I’m giving deference to UK’s stable of returning veterans, strength of schedule and consistency as a program rather than A&M’s overall higher talent ceiling. The Aggies enter 2022 without a definitive quarterback and a new defensive coordinator, D.J. Durkin, who comes with heavy baggage and whose defenses at Ole Miss were far from championship caliber. It’s silly to dismiss the Aggies outright, though; some folks will surely talk themselves into picking them as the Western Division champ.
5. Mississippi State
Mike Leach’s team doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of respect among the “way-too-early” crowd of prognosticators, and it’s tough to figure out why. His Air Raid will again have Will Rogers (4,739 passing yards, 36 touchdown passes) running the show and returns multiple starters on both sides of the ball that have played big snaps in Leach’s first two seasons. The Bulldogs have added Alabama cornerback Marcus Banks, the most marquee addition among several from the transfer portal. Their league schedule, on paper, is the toughest in the West — State gets all of those teams plus Georgia and cross-division rival Kentucky from the East — but the ceiling seems higher here than it does for most teams not named Alabama.
6. Arkansas
Several in the media are including Arkansas in their preseason top 25 projections — and putting the Razorbacks as high as the fourth-best team in the SEC — but its hopes for a special 2022 season could be dashed by October if it drops consecutive games to Texas A&M (Sept. 24) and Alabama (Oct. 1). Non-conference bouts with Cincinnati (Sept. 3) and at BYU (Oct. 15) will be among the toughest in the league, too. It’ll have quarterback K.J. Jefferson back, at least, to navigate the gauntlet.
7. Tennessee
The Volunteers had one of the best scoring offenses (39.3 ppg, seventh nationally) and worst scoring defenses (29.1 ppg, 90th) in 2021, a combination that, predictably, saw them finish 7-6 overall in Josh Heupel’s first season. That’s where they’ll finish in Heupel’s second season if immediate improvement doesn’t occur among the ball-stoppers. If Tennessee takes a leap, defensively, though, look out.
8. LSU
Long term, Brian Kelly should be a great hire in Baton Rouge. It’s hard to see the Tigers having a memorable season unless Kelly can assemble an Avengers-like stable of transfers between now and August, but — if the talent comes together — their schedule isn’t exactly intimidating outside of November showdowns with Alabama, Arkansas and Texas A&M. It wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world to see LSU start strong and falter down the stretch.
9. Ole Miss
This anticipated drop-off is based on two things: that the Rebels’ defense, sans D.J. Durkin, relapses after going from putrid in 2020 to so-so in 2021, and that they’re unable to sort out their quarterback situation well enough to put together a second straight 10-win season. Lane Kiffin’s name has been thrown around as an NFL prospect, too; him leaving would be damaging to the Rebels’ outlook, to say the least.
10. Florida
Billy Napier did well in four seasons at Louisiana (40-12) and inherits a program that signed top-10 recruiting classes each of the last two seasons, and that boasts a top-15 class of signees in 2022 as of Tuesday despite the Gators coming off a disappointing campaign. His job should be one of the easiest in the country based on talent alone, but the expectations are stratospheric in Gainesville; a potential 0-2 start (Utah on Sept. 3 and Kentucky on Sept. 10, both at home) could derail the honeymoon.
11. South Carolina
The addition of Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler by itself will be enough to keep South Carolina in the conversation as a dark-horse contender in the SEC East, whether it’s legitimately warranted or not. The Gamecocks’ offense ranked among the worst in the country (22.6 ppg, 106th) but their defense in year one of the Shane Beamer era proved stingy enough to get them to a bowl win.
12. Missouri
Eli Drinkwitz has recruited at an incredible clip in two seasons with the Tigers, and those returns should start bearing out on the field in 2022 if he and his staff are as good at developing talent as they are acquiring it. An uncertain quarterback situation and a so-so track record on the field — and an abhorrent run defense in 2021 — should tame expectations for the Tigers going into the fall, but their “best-case” outlook is probably better than several of the teams ranked ahead of them.
13. Auburn
Things don’t feel like they’re going well on the plains for Bryan Harsin, whose Tigers lost their last five games of the 2021 season. But, they did have Alabama on the ropes, and bring back running back Tank Bigsby to pair with whoever starts at quarterback. The experienced candidates are former Texas A&M starter Zach Calzada and T.J. Finley, who was 0-3 as a Tigers starter last season. Both could be passed by Dematrius Davis, a redshirt freshman last year, or four-star signee Holden Geriner, who enrolled this month.
14. Vanderbilt
The Commodores have lost 21 straight league games and are 5-28 over the last three seasons. Need more be said?
This story was originally published January 11, 2022 at 2:57 PM.
