Breaking down the top four options for Kentucky football’s 2022 bowl game
The penultimate College Football Playoff committee ranking released Tuesday answered one lingering question about the Southeastern Conference’s bowl selection process.
The committee dropped LSU all the way from fifth to 14th after the Tigers’ loss to Texas A&M in their regular-season finale. That means unless LSU pulls off a surprising upset of No. 1 Georgia in Saturday’s SEC championship game, the SEC will send just three teams to the New Year’s Six bowl games.
Georgia is probably a lock for the playoff, even with a loss to LSU. No. 5 Alabama appears headed to the Sugar Bowl, and No. 6 Tennessee bound for the Orange Bowl.
The Citrus Bowl would then choose between LSU and No. 19 South Carolina for its SEC selection. The SEC league office will assign the rest of its bowl-eligible teams to the “Pool of Six” bowls (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Las Vegas, Texas and Liberty). Whichever of the six-win bowl-eligible SEC teams is left after those assignments are made will go to the Birmingham Bowl.
With three eight-win teams guaranteed to be available for the “Pool of Six” tier (likely South Carolina, Mississippi State and Ole Miss), the two Florida games in the group (ReliaQuest and Gator) are probably out of reach for Kentucky. Since the SEC takes into consideration the preferences of schools and bowls when making the pool assignments, Kentucky should have its pick of the three games available after the eight-win teams are slotted in their bowls.
Here is a closer look at the pros and cons of each of the four options on the table.
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 17)
This is the wildcard in the pool. Since the game was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, there is no track record to suggest how the SEC will perceive this game in its selection order. The SEC alternates years in Las Vegas with the Big Ten. Since the matchup is against one of the Pac-12’s top teams and will be played in a prime-time window on ABC, it would make sense to send one of the eight-win teams here. The problem is the Dec. 17 kickoff date, which comes the weekend before the early signing period opens, a time every coach would prefer to be able to host visitors on his campus.
Las Vegas Bowl executive director John Saccenti told the Herald-Leader this month Kentucky was on the bowl’s radar, but it now seems unlikely the Wildcats will be sent here. National bowl projections have Ole Miss as a popular pick for the game, but if the league does not send an eight-win team to Las Vegas, a six-win team like Florida or Arkansas might make sense due to their large fan bases willing to travel for the game.
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 28)
Kentucky last played in the Memphis game at the end of the 2008 season. The Liberty Bowl is generally considered the least prestigious of the SEC’s “Pool of Six” games since it is the game forced to choose a team from another league when the SEC does not have enough eligible teams to fill the entire pool, but its appeal is increased for Kentucky this year because it lacks the recruiting conflict of the Las Vegas Bowl or the basketball conflict of the Music City Bowl while still providing a short drive for fans interested in going to the game. A matchup with the Big 12 presents some intriguing story lines for Kentucky as well.
Texas Bowl (Dec. 28)
The SEC generally sends a team from the West Division to the Texas Bowl. In the two years under the current selection process when it deviated from that path, the league sent Missouri (2017) and Vanderbilt (2018), the western-most teams in the East Division, to Houston. Arkansas could be a logical choice for this game because the Razorbacks were supposed to play there in 2020 before the game was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak within opponent TCU’s program.
Kentucky might be more attractive to the Texas Bowl this year if star quarterback Will Levis elects to play in the game since Levis is considered one of the top quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft class and the Houston Texas are currently projected to have the first pick. The chance to see one of the candidates to be the Texans’ next quarterback might help sell tickets to local fans, but Mark Stoops said Monday Levis has not yet made a decision about playing in Kentucky’s bowl.
Music City Bowl (Dec. 31)
If an eight-win team is not sent to Las Vegas, the Music City Bowl might be out of reach for Kentucky. Even if the game is not filled by an eight-win team, there are logistical roadblocks to what otherwise would look like a logical match for UK this year. Iowa, which Kentucky faced in the Citrus Bowl last year, is one of the Big Ten teams in play for the opposite side of the game, and the SEC works to avoid repeat bowl matchups when making pool assignments. The game also kicks off at the same time as the Kentucky-Louisville men’s basketball rivalry game. Music City Bowl president and CEO Scott Ramsey told the Herald-Leader this month that conflict would not rule out the Wildcats for consideration for the game, but UK Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart has to decide if he really wants to force his fans to choose between the two games, especially after the summer feud between John Calipari and Stoops.
Kentucky football bowl projections
ESPN (Kyle Bonagura): Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon State
ESPN (Mark Schlabach): Music City Bowl vs. Minnesota
The Athletic (Stewart Mandel and Scott Dochterman): Music City Bowl vs. Iowa
USA Today (Erick Smith): Las Vegas Bowl vs. Utah
Athlon (Steve Lassan): Liberty Bowl vs. Kansas
CBSSports (Jerry Palm): Texas Bowl vs. Oklahoma State
Action Network (Brett McMurphy): Music City Bowl vs. Minnesota
Sports Illustrated (Richard Johnson): Gator Bowl vs. Notre Dame