Kentucky vs. Missouri predictions: The keys to the Wildcats bouncing back
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how No. 24 Kentucky’s game against Missouri might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.
Moving past Georgia
It is no secret that Kentucky has struggled at times in recent years to move past a loss in a much-hyped game.
In both 2018 and 2021 when the Wildcats faced Georgia with the chance to take control of the SEC East like they did last week, a loss to the Bulldogs was followed by one of their worst performances of the season. UK coach Mark Stoops has also been clear that he felt one of the main problems with last season was how the team responded to adversity.
So, in the wake of the 51-13 loss at Georgia, Kentucky is faced with another test of how it can bounce back from a demoralizing defeat.
“That’s not going to happen,” Stoops promised Monday when asked about the threat of another letdown after Georgia. “ I can’t predict who is going to win or lose this game. I have great respect for Missouri, it is always a close game. … We are not going to tolerate being mopey and being down. We are going to address it, and we’re going to own it. We are going to look at our mistakes and take our part and move on.”
Stoops said Thursday he was pleased with how his players have responded in practice this week, but before the Georgia game he also said he was pleased with how the team responded to his challenge after a poor Tuesday practice. That response did not prevent Kentucky from being blown out in Athens.
“I think a lot of people kind of gave up, pointed fingers (last year),” tight end Josh Kattus said. “We can’t do that. This is a time we’ve got to unite as a team, come even closer and just work harder than we were before.”
Watch out for Burden
Kentucky went into the Georgia matchup knowing it had to account for star tight end Brock Bowers on every play but still left perhaps college football’s best player wide-open multiple times on the way to 132 yards on seven catches.
Now the Wildcat defense is faced with another daunting challenge against Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden, a former five-star recruit who leads the country in receiving yards per game (132.2) and catches per game (nine).
“He’s an elite guy,” Stoops said. “He’s strong, he can run, and make competitive catches. He can run by you but he’s also hard to get down.”
The lessons learned in facing Bowers last week might not directly apply to defending Burden because they play different positions, but defensive coordinator Brad White sees them as similar challenges.
“Luther does the same way, just in a different way,” White said. “He’s elusive, he’s shifty. He can change speeds, which is deceiving. He can be smooth and it doesn’t feel like he’s running and all of the sudden he hits a gear. Those kind of guys are really, really tough to defend both from a route-running standpoint and especially when the ball is in their hands.
“Because as a tackler, you’re trying to pace your angle and then all of the sudden at the last second he accelerates and he can blow through that angle. He’s made a lot of plays and scored a lot of touchdowns by guys who feel like they’ve taken the right angle and at the last second he explodes by.”
Kentucky football injury report
Senior safety Jalen Geiger is expected to be out multiple weeks with an arm injury he suffered at Georgia. The status of other Wildcats injured in the game, including linebacker Trevin Wallace and nose guard Keeshawn Silver, is uncertain. Both Wallace and Silver were listed on the depth chart Monday, which is not a guarantee they will play but generally signals they had not been ruled out of playing.
Senior left guard Kenneth Horsey, who has missed the last five games with a leg injury, could be nearing a return.
“We’ll see,” Stoops said Monday when asked about Horsey’s status for the Missouri game. “I hope we’ll get him back out there. We need to get him back.”
Pregame update: Wallace and sophomore right guard Jager Burton are out. Horsey and Silver are participating in warmups though. Horsey is set to play for the first time since the season opener.
Final predictions
Kentucky 35, Missouri 28: Given recent history in the Kentucky-Missouri series, we should expect something crazy to happen in this game. If Kentucky’s defense regains its form from before the Georgia game, the Wildcats should be able to score enough to win, even when accounting for season-long offensive inconsistencies. The question is whether the offense can score enough to win in a shootout if the defense can’t slow Missouri. The prediction here is White’s defense returns to form.
MVP—Josh Kattus: In what seems like an annual tradition for Kentucky, preseason talk of the tight ends being more involved in the passing attack has not quite translated to actual games, but Kattus has emerged as a red zone target for Devin Leary with two touchdowns this season. “He makes plays when his number is called,” offensive coordinator Liam Coen said of Kattus this week. “At the end of the day, those are the guys that need to continue to get the football and also play for us.”
THE LAST WORD
Leary on his accuracy issues:
“I think you could say it’s one step away or one throw away, but at the end of the day, those throws need to be made. Those completions need to be made, especially in games like that. I put a lot on myself. I’m my biggest critic. I always tell the offense it starts with me. It starts with how I’m managing the game, how I’m operating the offense. Honestly, there’s no excuse for it to be a step off or 1 yard away from a catch. It’s my job to give those guys a chance and make sure we can make plays. That just didn’t happen on Saturday in some instances. I’ve just got to be better.”
This story was originally published October 13, 2023 at 7:20 AM.