Kentucky vs. Louisville predictions: Can the Wildcats rally for a rivalry upset?
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s rivalry game against Louisville might play out on Saturday.
Another chance for offense to prove itself
No one can accuse Kentucky offensive coordinator Liam Coen of not being aggressive enough this season, but too often the Wildcats’ attempts to throw down the field have fallen incomplete.
Against a Louisville defense that loves to bring pressure, leaving receivers in man coverage, there should be opportunities to take some shots down the field Saturday if UK can protect quarterback Devin Leary long enough to get a pass off. Leary and speedy wide receiver Barion Brown, who missed on multiple deep passes in the loss at South Carolina, will need to find a better connection to exploit those opportunities though.
“I think when you run a post or a go, you have to win on that route before you get your head and eyes up,” Coen said. “Really track the football. I also think from a quarterback standpoint, a post doesn’t have to be a launch shot. It doesn’t have to be a 60-yard pass. It can be a 50-yarder or a 40-yarder. The ball doesn’t have to be launched down the field in order for us to complete a post or a go or something like that.”
Coen noted those plays are difficult to simulate in practice because the receiver is likely to easily beat the scout team defensive back he is covered by, whereas a starting-caliber defender in an actual game will have much tighter coverage, necessitating a close-to-perfect throw.
Still, Leary insists he and Brown have put in extra work to try and fix a connection that has been inconsistent throughout the season. Is there reason to hope it can finally click in game No. 12?
“Kind of what Coach Coen is hinting at, there are some plays in our offense based on the coverage that they’re giving us that the stage is going to be set to take those deep shots,” Leary said. “Me and Barion, we work really hard. It’s not like we’re trying to miss on purpose. There’s just a little bit, whether it’s 1 or 2 yards I’m throwing it a little bit too deep, or the angle is a little bit off. We’re eager and we’re determined to hit this deep ball this week.”
More pressure needed
Holding South Carolina to just 17 points should have been a good enough defensive performance to win last week, but that unit was far from perfect itself.
Perhaps most worrisome was each of the five third down conversions Kentucky surrendered came on third-and-7 or longer. A week earlier in the loss to Alabama, Kentucky surrendered four third-and-8 or longer conversions.
“I think the biggest thing is consistent pressure,” UK coach Mark Stoops said this week when asked about the problem. “Obviously, there’s things we could do better in the back end in certain coverage issues. I think that’s a combination of things. Pressure helps.”
Defensive coordinator Brad White noted that Kentucky looked poised for a sack on two third-and-long conversions on South Carolina’s first touchdown drive but could not finish the play. He acknowledged similar instances have held the defense back at times this season, but the bigger problem appears to be getting to the quarterback at all.
That may only be fixed by recruiting new talent over the next few months.
“It stems from winning one-on-ones,” White said. “That’s where we have to be better. In a one-game season you hope to be better just this week and then we can address that issue going forward. We have to be better this week.”
Kentucky football injury report
The biggest injury absence from Kentucky’s loss at South Carolina was tight end Jordan Dingle. He was still listed on the depth chart this week, but Coen also said tight end Izayah Cummings, who recorded his first catches of the season with Dingle unavailable, would be in line for an expanded role against Louisville and in the bowl game. Offensive guard Kenneth Horsey was limited to one series at South Carolina, but it was unclear if that was due to injury or Horsey struggling to find his form after missing much of the season.
“I think he had a tough time a week ago or so,” Stoops said of Horsey after the game. “Just felt like with where he’s at right now this was the best option for us.”
Predictions
Louisville 21, Kentucky 14.
As Louisville wrapped up its win over Miami on Saturday, I was planning to pick Kentucky. Then the Wildcats’ offense posted another clunker in the loss at South Carolina. Now, I’m not sure Louisville’s weak strength of schedule matters. We have no proof Kentucky is better than the ACC teams Louisville has beaten. Kentucky’s tendency for undisciplined play also makes it easy to see scenarios where the rivalry emotions are not channeled productively.
MVP: Ashton Gillotte.
Pressuring opposing quarterbacks has not been a problem for Louisville. Gillotte leads the way with 13 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. Given Kentucky’s offensive struggles, Gillotte could be in line for another big game.
The last word
Stoops on the importance of the Louisville rivalry:
“It’s been a tough stretch, without a doubt, but this is another game. It certainly doesn’t salvage some of the things that we’ve done or anything like that. We don’t look at it that way. We look at it like it’s another opportunity. We play a lot of big games here. This one, I’ve said it from the moment I walked in here that it was important. I know the importance of it to our fan base and to the community and I’ve acknowledged that for 11 years.”