Why Saturday’s NCAA regional game could be key to Kentucky’s College World Series hopes
Nick Mingione knows how to battle adversity in an NCAA Tournament regional.
During his first season as Kentucky coach, the Wildcats won their 2017 opener, dropped their second game and still battled back through the loser’s bracket to reach the first super regional in program history. A year ago, UK followed that same path to the program’s second super regional.
After a 10-8 win over Western Michigan on Friday, Mingione’s squad finds itself in a familiar spot. The Wildcats will face No. 3 seed Illinois on Saturday night, a 4-1 winner over No. 2 seed Indiana State in Friday’s second game.
A loss in that game would send Kentucky back to the loser’s bracket while a win would mean they have two chances to secure the one victory needed to clinch the regional title.
“In those two years we have not won the second game,” Mingione said. “That has been our biggest challenge. So now we have (Trey Pooser) and (Mason Moore) both available, on good rest, to try to win the second game against a really good team.”
Mingione and company know emerging from the loser’s bracket is not impossible, but the way Friday’s opener played out made it clear avoiding the loser’s bracket Sunday doubleheader could be key to Kentucky’s regional chances.
With Western Michigan just 5-10 against left-handed starting pitchers this season, Mingione elected to start normal Saturday starter Dominic Niman in Game 1, holding his top two starters, right-handers Pooser and Moore, for later in the regional. While opponents had hit .431 against Niman in his last six appearances, the decision paid off with four dominant innings to open the game.
With Kentucky leading Western Michigan 8-0 at the end of the fourth, it appeared Mingione might be able to escape Game 1 without using any of his best relievers.
Niman ran into trouble in the fifth though as Western Michigan used three infield singles, two walks and one hit batsman to plate five runs with only one ball leaving the infield. That rally chased Niman from the game, forcing Mingione to use right-handed reliever Cameron O’Brien, Kentucky’s leader in appearances this season.
O’Brien, who entered the game with the bases loaded and no one out, allowed two inherited runners to score, but struck out back-to-back hitters with the tying run at the plate to escape without more damage being done. Reliever Evan Byers then took the mound for the sixth inning but was charged with three runs while recording just two outs.
Then Mingione handed the game over to Texas A&M transfer Robert Hogan, who has been arguably Kentucky’s most consistent reliever this season. Hogan recorded the final 10 outs to close out the victory, but after throwing 50 pitches might not be available again for multiple days.
Whether Pooser or Moore starts Kentucky’s next game, a lengthy start is needed. With Hogan definitely unavailable Saturday, Kentucky will have just one reliever with more than 11 appearances this season and an ERA under 4.70 available.
Hogan told reporters after the game he planned to be available to pitch again Sunday, but Moore was held back until the winner-take-all game Monday a year ago after throwing 50 pitches out of the pen in the regional opener.
O’Brien and Byers have both thrown on back-to-back days at least once this season, so they could be used again this weekend. Johnny Hummel, who leads UK with six saves but has a 9.72 ERA in his last seven appearances, should be the top relief option Saturday.
Right-handed pitcher Ryan Hagenow, who has a sterling 2.20 ERA on the season but has made just 11 appearances, and former Friday starter Travis Smith, who returned from an injury to pitch one inning in the SEC Tournament, could be needed for important innings too. Freshman Ben Cleaver, who missed most of the season with an injury, has shown promise in three appearances since his return.
“If you asked me before the game how was it going to go, it was going to go (Niman) to Hogan,” Mingione said. “And we used Cam in between there, and we used Evan who got us obviously two outs. You could see (Hogan) was starting to run on fumes. I think those two outs by Evan Byers was big.
“Would it have been nice to try to put the game away? Yes, but that’s a good team. That’s a good team. And it was going to be hard to put them away.”
Kentucky’s pitching staff lacks the projected early-round MLB draft picks that several of the other top teams in the tournament have, but no one else in the Lexington Regional or the Corvallis Regional, the winner of which UK would host in a super regional if it advances through the first weekend, do either. Even teams with elite pitching prospects have their depth tested by the NCAA Tournament format as evidenced by the combined 53 runs scored in the College World Series three-game championship series between LSU and Florida last season.
UK’s SEC championship was enough to lock in the No. 2 overall seed, opening a path to the College World Series without leaving Lexington. It is clear Big Blue Nation will turn out to make the most of that home-field advantage, but now the question is whether Kentucky has the pitching depth to make the most of that support.
“It’s just something where we can all build off that,” Hogan said, crediting Niman with four key innings Friday. “We can all build off of each other and we know we trust everyone who gets the ball.”
If Kentucky loses Saturday, it will need to navigate five games to win the regional. The pitching depth is far less of a concern if only three or four games are needed to advance. While the quality of opponent will probably increase in a super regional, pitching depth is less a concern in the second weekend of the tournament due to the best-of-three series format.
The good news is Kentucky’s offense might be good enough to overcome any pitching concerns. The Wildcats scored in each of the first five innings Friday, marking the 29th time this season they have scored at least eight runs in a game.
“I think anytime you have that kind of production up and down the lineup, it obviously makes us hard to beat,” Mingione said. “And we were able to do it all. We hit bunts, bombs, ran the bases, stolen bases, got thrown out a couple times being aggressive but we were on the full-on attack. We drew walks, got hit by pitches and hit on a lot of cylinders offensively.”
NCAA Tournament Lexington Regional
When: Friday through Monday
Where: Kentucky Proud Park
Tickets: UKBaseballTix.com
Teams: Kentucky (41-14), Illinois (35-19), Indiana State (42-14), Western Michigan (32-22)
Format: Double-elimination
At stake: Winner advances to NCAA Tournament’s 16-team super-regional round next week.
Lexington Regional schedule
Friday
Game 1: No. 1 seed Kentucky 10, No. 4 Western Michigan 8
Game 2: No. 3 Illinois 4, No. 2 Indiana State 1
Saturday
Game 3: Western Michigan vs. Indiana State (Noon, ESPN+)
Game 4: Kentucky vs. Illinois (55 minutes after Game 3, ESPN+)
Sunday
Game 5: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 loser (Noon, ESPN+)
Game 6: Game 5 winner vs. Game 4 winner (6 p.m., ESPN+)
Monday (if necessary)
Game 7: Same teams as Game 6 (TBD, ESPN+)
This story was originally published May 31, 2024 at 8:27 PM.