Party like it’s 2016? Here’s how Southern Miss can play Week 1 spoiler in Lexington again.
Editor’s note: The Sun Herald, the Lexington Herald-Leader’s McClatchy-owned sister paper in Biloxi, Mississippi, took a look at Southern Mississippi’s chances of upsetting 28-point favorite Kentucky in Saturday night’s season opener at Kroger Field.
Southern Miss is set to open its season with a Week 1 matchup against a familiar SEC foe.
The Golden Eagles will face Kentucky in a game that was quickly pulled together last fall when Ohio State and USM canceled their originally planned meeting.
The last time USM and the Wildcats met was a home-and-home series in 2016 and 2017. The first of the two games made waves when the Eagles stunned the host Wildcats, 44-35.
I watched the 2016 game all the way through for the first time this week in preparation for Saturday’s contest. I understood the gist already: Southern Miss fell behind by as many as four scores before furiously roaring back in the second half.
It’s an exceedingly rare way for a Group of Five team to pull off an upset over a power conference counterpart, but a closer examination revealed that many of the principals required for such an upset were present in the game.
The necessary keys were prevalent in several similar upsets I’ve covered in the past, including Troy over LSU and Nebraska, and Georgia State’s surprising win over Tennessee.
The Panthers entered their game with the Volunteers as a 30-plus point underdog coming off a 2-10 season, not too dissimilar from USM heading to Lexington as a 28-point dog out of a 3-9 year.
These stunners have become even more common in recent years thanks to the transfer portal pulling Group of Five schools closer to middle- and lower-tier power programs in terms of speed and athleticism. The Sun Belt itself has earned 11 wins over major conference opponents since 2020, including Marshall over Notre Dame in 2022.
Golden Eagles coach Will Hall believes UK has its best roster of the Mark Stoops era. It’s worth noting, according to the broadcast at the time, Stoops believed he had his best team yet heading into the opener with USM in ‘16.
But this is a very different USM team and the Wildcats have expectations of returning to the postseason for the fourth year in a row.
Based on the Eagles’ last trip to Kentucky, the recipes for success followed by conference mates and what Hall is putting on the field this season, here are the keys to creating an opportunity for an upset.
Win the line of scrimmage
Easier said than done. The spark to Jay Hopson and his ‘16 Eagles was the dominant showing from Ito Smith and the interior offensive line. Smith gashed UK for 173 yards and George Payne complimented with 100 yards of his own.
The run game set up Nick Mullens’ 71-yard touchdown pass at the end of the first half and was the catalyst for all three scoring drives in the third quarter.
This time around, USM has a remade offensive line, but one that is shaping up to be the deepest of the Hall tenure. That depth will be tested against a defensive line featuring six players returning with starting experience, including first-team All-SEC player Deone Walker.
Southern Miss will benefit from the hard running of Dreke Clark, who played one of his best games of ‘23 in the blowout loss to Florida State, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and picking up 40 yards after contact.
New offensive coordinator Chip Long’s motion-centric, horizontal attack is a key component to minimizing the impact of the lengthy Wildcats front.
The flip side could be best-on-best. The Golden Eagles front four is the strongest position group on the roster and it will be going up against an offensive line with 156 combined returning starts.
Controlling the Wildcats between the tackles and creating lanes for Clark will do a lot to level the playing field.
Mitigating speed
Kentucky brings speed, and plenty of it. The Wildcats have a trio of receivers in Ja’Mori Maclin, Barion Brown and Dane Key that will stretch the field and pose as USM’s biggest threats to be bombed in the secondary.
That was the initial undoing for the Eagles in ‘16, allowing UK to strike with three different 40-plus yard touchdown passes in the first half.
It was also the biggest undoing for the most recent edition of the Golden Eagles defense. Southern Miss was 13th in the SBC and 112th nationally in plays of 40-plus yards allowed with 18.
In steps new defensive coordinator Clay Bignell and the 4-2-5 defense. It’s a similar scheme to what rival South Alabama has deployed in recent years, which led to the top pass defense in the conference a year ago and held the potent Oklahoma State offense to just 208 yards and one score in the Jaguars’ upset of the Big 12 runners-up.
Southern Miss has the depth to run it, thanks to several defensive backs returning from injury and the development of sought after recruits like Will James. The biggest key will be Dylan Lawrence, who has taken over the new stinger position.
It’s a hybrid between safety and outside linebacker and is designed to take advantage of a versatile skill set. Lawrence is an SEC transfer who brings the speed and size the Wildcats will see in their conference schedule.
Control momentum
What made USM’s upset of UK so unique was the sheer amount of momentum the Wildcats had built by late in the second quarter, even after the Eagles dominated the first two possessions.
Southern Miss ripped it back by returning to Smith and Payne following three interceptions thrown early in the game. Quick starts and ball control are imperative in the G5 upset. Hopson nearly let it slip with a failed onside kick in the third and UK immediately hit on a big play. It was a fumble that bailed out USM on that possession.
Gadgets and tricks are rarely the spark that ignites the headline-grabbing outcome. Louisiana took a game at conference runner-up Iowa State in 2020 by force.
Appalachian State quieted Kyle Field in 2022 by pounding the football and playing swarm defense against Texas A&M. It’s the 13-play, six-minute drive that erases the 12th man, not the double pass.
Failing on a trick play can and often does have disastrous consequences that could last for the rest of the game. Limiting big plays — which includes special teams and the turnover battle — and establishing time of possession in an era that has largely thrown out the stat are the primary forces behind momentum control for a heavy underdog.
Southern Miss has not beaten a power conference team since the last time it met the Wildcats. It will look to end that streak on Saturday.
Saturday
Southern Mississippi at Kentucky
When: 7:45 p.m. EDT
TV: SEC Network
Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1
Series: Kentucky leads 3-1
Last meeting: Kentucky won 24-17 on Sept. 2, 2017, at Hattiesburg, Miss.
This story was originally published August 28, 2024 at 1:37 PM with the headline "Party like it’s 2016? Here’s how Southern Miss can play Week 1 spoiler in Lexington again.."
