UK vs. Texas prediction: Can Kentucky shock college football world for second time?
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky football’s game against No. 3 Texas might play out in Austin on Saturday.
The one reason for hope for a Kentucky upset
While almost everyone outside the UK locker room may have already decided the outcome of this game as evidenced by the playoff conversation this week revolving around whether Texas could still make the field if it loses to Texas A&M next week, Kentucky has proven repeatedly this year it can bring its best performances against its best competition.
Of the three previous playoff contenders Kentucky has faced this year, the Wildcats lost by one point to then No. 1-ranked Georgia, upset then No. 6-ranked Ole Miss in Oxford and had a possession with a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter at then No. 7-ranked Tennessee. It’s actually Kentucky’s performance against teams from the bottom half of the SEC this season that has been the biggest problem for Mark Stoops’ team.
“For us the challenge has been consistency,” Stoops said. “It’s not been competitiveness. We have been competitive against some of the best teams in the country. We just have to be more consistent. That’s what we are striving to do and we’re striving to give them our best shot and play our best ball.”
The fact that two of the three previous matchups against playoff contenders came on the road should provide added confidence for Kentucky this week. Of course, even with better-than-expected performances only one of those games resulted in a UK win, but there is at least some reason to hope an offense that has yet to score more than 20 points in an SEC game is starting to build some momentum.
“We’re getting into the later parts of the season,” tight end Josh Kattus said. “It’s easy to be lazy, go through the motions, but our coaches kind of just harped on, attention to detail and every rep matters. Treating every rep like it’s your last and going with that (mentality), that’ll bring consistency.
“We’ve made some great plays, and then we’ll have some negative plays. So, we just got to keep being consistent and work to get better at that.”
How good is Texas?
While pundits may be assuming a Texas win this week, the conversation about what another loss would do to the 9-1 Longhorns’ playoff hopes is an acknowledgment of the favorable schedule Texas landed it its first year in the SEC.
Texas has yet to beat a team currently ranked in the playoff committee top 25 and is coming off a 20-10 win over Arkansas. In three of its last four games Texas has disappointed to varying extents, losing to Georgia, barely beating Vanderbilt and slogging through the Arkansas win. The only comfortable victory in that stretch was a 49-17 win over Florida in which the Gators were down to a walk-on quarterback.
Of course, even if Texas might be overrated due to its strength of schedule, that does not mean the Longhorns are still not significantly better than Kentucky, especially on their home field. While Texas may not have beaten any elite teams, it is the only team in the country with eight wins over teams with .500 or better records.
“There’s no weaknesses on this team,” Stoops said of Texas. “The eye test, they’re as strong as anybody in the country.”
Kentucky football injury report
There was good news on the injury front for UK this week as five of the seven starters who were unavailable for the Murray State game look likely to play. Wide receiver Barion Brown, defensive lineman Deone Walker and linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson were all listed as available on Thursday’s availability report. Outside linebacker J.J. Weaver was listed as probable.
UK will still be without normal starters at right tackle (Gerald Mincey) and middle linebacker (D’Eryk Jackson), as well as heavily used backup cornerbacks D.J. Waller, Tehryon Nichols and Jantzen Dunn. Nose guard Tavion Gadson, who picked up an injury last week after missing most of the season with a different ailment, is also listed as out.
Kentucky vs. Texas prediction
I’ll buy into UK’s track record against top-10 teams this season and project the final score to be much closer than the 20.5-point spread, but I can’t pick the Wildcats to actually pull off the upset without seeing the offense find more success. If quarterback Brock Vandagriff plays the entire game, that’s probably a good sign for the Wildcats.
Texas 28, Kentucky 17.
Final word
“It’s very random and some people got the short end of the stick this year on certain draws and some people didn’t. And that’s everybody.” — Stoops on UK’s difficult schedule