What to know about Kentucky QB recruit Matt Ponatoski’s MLB draft decision
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Matt Ponatoski’s MLB draft position could decide his college future.
- A seven-figure bonus would likely ensure Ponatoski signs a professional contract.
- Recent rankings list Ponatoski at No. 152 (Baseball America) and No. 208 (MLB.com).
The biggest lingering question on the 2026 Kentucky football roster could be answered this weekend.
That’s when four-star Ohio prep quarterback Matt Ponatoski will learn when he is picked in the MLB draft that begins Saturday. Ponatoski has committed to play both football and baseball at UK but signaled in recent interviews he is open to signing a professional baseball contract that would see him skip college entirely depending on when he is picked in the 20-round draft.
In the final days leading up to the draft, there is still general uncertainty about whether Ponatoski will be drafted in a position that would deliver him a signing bonus large enough to skip college, though, according to multiple sources on both the football and baseball sides of his decision.
Matt Ponatoski’s MLB draft rankings
Forecasting where Ponatoski could be picked in the draft is complicated by an apparent switch in positions for his baseball future.
Entering his final high school baseball season, Ponatoski was widely ranked as a shortstop, but he played designated hitter and pitcher as a senior at Archbishop Moeller in Cincinnati. In a June interview with the Overslotbaseball.com podcast, Ponatoski described himself solely as a pitching prospect.
Baseball America ranked him as the 56th-best prospect in the 2026 draft class in February, when UK baseball coach Nick Mingione told reporters he had already coordinated with the new UK football staff on a plan for Ponatoski to play both sports in college. Now, Baseball America, which still lists him as a right-handed pitcher or shortstop, ranks him at No. 152 overall.
MLB.com ranks Ponatoski at No. 208 but classifies him as only a pitcher.
“This spring, his heater often settled at 90-92 mph after an inning or two and his curve wasn’t as sharp,” MLB.com wrote in its scouting report. “His mid-80s changeup is too firm and very much a work in progress.
“While Ponatoski is athletic and provides strikes, he’s not particularly projectable at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds. He totaled about 30 innings between his junior and senior seasons, plus the showcase circuit, and he might take off if he focuses on pitching after preferring to play shortstop in the past.”
How much could a MLB team offer Ponatoski to sign?
MLB’s draft bonus system assigns a signing bonus value for each pick in the first 10 rounds. Teams are not required to sign the player selected with that pick for the exact slot value, but teams do have to fit all their signings within the total bonus pool determined by combining all the slot values for their picks in the first 10 rounds.
If a team does not sign a player picked in the first 10 rounds, it loses that pick’s slot value from its total bonus pool, so teams generally do not select players in that range without an understanding the player is willing to sign a professional contract.
The math is complicated because every team will select at least a few college seniors in the top 10 rounds who have no leverage in negotiations and will agree to sign a contract for a bonus well below the value assigned to their pick number. Teams can then use the savings on those picks to offer above-slot deals to high-upside high school players and college underclassmen they select in other rounds.
The assigned slot value for the 150th pick in the 2026 MLB draft is $481,800. The value for the 200th pick is $311,700. For pick 250, it’s $220,900.
But remember, even if Ponatoski is picked in that range, the MLB team that drafts him is likely to offer him more than the assigned slot value by using savings from other selections. Last year, the first 80 picks in the draft were assigned bonus values of at least $1 million, but 16 players drafted later in the first 10 rounds signed seven-figure deals.
A seven-figure bonus would likely ensure Ponatoski signs a professional contract, but his pre-draft reviews suggest he is unlikely to be offered that much. Still, it only takes one team to fall in love with the idea Ponatoski promoted in the Overslotbaseball podcast appearance.
“A team is going to get somebody that’s very raw if they do decide to draft me,” Ponatoski said.
The option to play college football gives Ponatoski more leverage in negotiations with any team that thinks he has potential to develop into a better pitcher once he focuses all his time on pitching. If a team is sold on that theory, it might be willing to pay Ponatoski more to forgo his football commitment.
Rounds one through four of the MLB draft are scheduled for Saturday. Rounds five through 20 will take place Sunday.
Drafted players have until 5 p.m. on July 27 to sign with MLB teams.
How the UK football roster could affect the decision
While Ponatoski committed to Kentucky when Mark Stoops was still the coach, he was also recruited by new coach Will Stein at Oregon and quickly signed with the Wildcats after Stein was hired.
If he makes it to campus this fall, Ponatoski could compete with Brennen Ward, JacQai Long, Callum Withers and Carson Cruver for the backup spot behind projected starting quarterback Kenny Minchey. There are few certainties in that group, and Ponatoski would bring the most recruiting hype of the backup options.
However, since Ponatoski signed with UK, the new staff landed a commitment from Jake Nawrot, the No. 5-ranked quarterback in the high school class of 2027. Minchey has two years of eligibility remaining, so Nawrot could be in line to start by the time Minchey leaves.
The idea of continuing to split time between both sports could become less appealing for Ponatoski if he is not in position to actually play for the football team, but the vast majority of his NIL and revenue sharing compensation (which is unknown) would come from football. If he chose to play only baseball in college, he would forfeit that money.
“He’s a long-term project with upside but won’t realize it until he commits to baseball full-time,” MLB.com wrote in its scouting report.
That dynamic appears to be the most likely reason Ponatoski would want to sign a professional baseball contract now, even if he could theoretically improve his draft stock in college in the same way UK shortstop Tyler Bell did after declining to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays as the No. 66 pick out of high school. (Bell is ranked as a top-10 prospect in the 2026 draft class by both Baseball America and MLB.com).
To reach his full potential as a baseball prospect, Ponatoski will eventually need to focus solely on that sport, but playing only baseball in college does not appear to be a viable option because of his NIL/revenue sharing deal. Ponatoski has been transparent with the UK football staff about the possibility he will sign a professional baseball contract, according to a source close to the program.
The staff appears to have prepared for that contingency in June, when it added Wither, a transfer from a Canadian university, as another backup option. Ponatoski did not join the football team for summer workouts, even after his high school baseball season concluded, instead choosing to attend the MLB draft scouting combine in Arizona.
Ponatoski’s public comments have to be viewed through the lens of a player who understandably is trying to gain as much leverage as possible in negotiations with MLB teams, but it is also impossible to ignore how adamant he was about his desires on the Overslotbaseball.com podcast.
“I want to be a professional baseball player as fast as possible,” he said. “That’s where my heart’s been, and it’s always been.”
