National expert has good news (and bad news) on Kentucky basketball recruiting outlook
This past weekend, Rivals.com’s top basketball recruiting experts were tasked with picking the “most intriguing” recruitment for the 2021 cycle.
National analyst Corey Evans chose five-star power forward Paolo Banchero, the heir apparent to the No. 1 ranking in the class and arguably Kentucky’s top recruiting target for next year.
Banchero — a 6-foot-9 prospect from Seattle — is ranked No. 2 overall by Rivals.com, and the only player ahead of him on that list, Jonathan Kuminga, is widely expected to reclassify to 2020, a move that would vacate the top spot for Banchero.
His recruitment could still go a few different ways.
“There are so many storylines,” Evans told the Herald-Leader this week.
Banchero’s parents were both athletes at Washington, the hometown school that has been pursuing him for the duration of his recruitment. Kentucky wants him. Duke wants him. North Carolina wants him. Evans mentioned Arizona, Michigan and Tennessee as legitimate landing spots. And there’s the added narrative of a “package deal” with close friend Kennedy Chandler, who happens to be the top available point guard in the 2021 class. UK is also recruiting Chandler, as are many of the other programs on Banchero’s list.
“It’s going to be hard for Paolo to even get down to five schools,” Evans said.
Last August, not long after UK extended a scholarship offer to Banchero, the Rivals.com analyst switched his Future Cast prediction from Washington to Kentucky. What does Evans think about that pick nearly eight months later?
“I still feel pretty good about that. I don’t think much has changed,” he said, with a caveat. “I also don’t think Paolo is anywhere near making a decision whatsoever. I wouldn’t be surprised if he holds off from committing until this time next year, especially with the pandemic going on. I know he visited all those schools last year, but it’s a little different mindset. That might have just been for fun and to get a general sense of things. But whenever you’re getting down to it — getting close to committing — it’s more of a business approach.”
Banchero was indeed on UK’s campus — for Big Blue Madness weekend — as part of his nationwide visit tour. He also had an online video meeting with Kentucky’s coaches Wednesday. John Calipari and his assistant coaches have been to Seattle multiple times to see Banchero and his family.
The West Coast star has been the subject of persistent rumors that he could still reclassify from 2021 to 2020 and play college basketball this coming season. He has repeatedly and adamantly denied those rumors. Banchero doesn’t turn 18 years old until November. That would make him one of the youngest players in college basketball if he did reclassify.
Kentucky is obviously in need of more frontcourt help for next season, but Evans doesn’t think Banchero will be the one to fill that need. His recruitment could still go many different directions, but the 2020 class doesn’t appear to be a realistic path.
“I would be surprised if he did that,” Evans said.
Jaden Hardy’s recruitment
Kentucky was quickly linked to the possible transfer of UNLV guard Amauri Hardy a few weeks ago, though it never seemed like Lexington was a legitimate landing spot. (UK has since added Creighton graduate transfer Davion Mintz, filling the program’s need for another guard).
The most interesting angle of the Kentucky-Hardy story was the link to the 2021 recruiting cycle. Hardy’s younger brother, Jaden Hardy, is the No. 1 backcourt player in that class and clearly one of the Wildcats’ top recruiting targets.
Amauri Hardy decided this week to transfer to Oregon, which was already recruiting his younger brother. What impact will Amauri’s decision have on Jaden’s recruitment?
“It could either hurt or help, right?” Rivals.com national analyst Corey Evans said. “It could hurt, because, what if Amauri goes there and it doesn’t go well? But it could definitely help, because Jaden is going to some of his brother’s games. So, you’re going to have the kid on campus, which wouldn’t have happened (as much) before. It definitely could make for an impact with Jaden.”
Evans noted that Oregon was already one of the top schools on Jaden Hardy’s list. The two brothers will likely never play college ball together — Amauri will be eligible to play his final season in 2020-21 — but the new family ties to the Ducks could impact Jaden’s choice.
A couple of months ago, Evans logged a Future Cast prediction in Kentucky’s favor for Hardy, the No. 6 player in the Rivals.com rankings. He said this week that Oregon was obviously a school to watch — along with other Pac-12 programs like UCLA and Arizona — and that Michigan (Hardy’s home-state school) would also stay in the picture.
“But until I get some concrete evidence that Kentucky has been surpassed, they’re definitely the one to beat,” Evans said.
Leader for Moussa Cisse?
The No. 8 overall player in the Rivals.com rankings for 2021 is Moussa Cisse, a 6-foot-10 post player from Guinea who moved to New York City a few years ago and then to Memphis last summer. He’s another candidate to reclassify to 2020, which would obviously make him one of the most coveted recruits for next season.
At the time of Cisse’s latest move, Memphis was seen as the favorite. That buzz died down during the season. Kentucky offered him a scholarship last year, and John Calipari has seen him several times since. But the Wildcats — still in need of more size for next season — aren’t the favorites either.
“I think LSU is the school to beat, if he does go 2020,” Rivals.com’s Corey Evans told the Herald-Leader. “If he goes 2021, I think it’s a different ballgame. But I think LSU is in the best spot, as of right now.”
What will Kuminga do?
There’s no debate over the No. 1 spot in the 2021 class. Rivals.com, 247Sports and ESPN all have versatile 6-8 forward Jonathan Kuminga at the top of their rankings. Complicated would be a good word to describe his recruitment so far. And there could be more twists and turns in the near future.
Kuminga — a Congo native now attending high school in New Jersey — cut his list to 10 schools back in November. At the time, Louisiana State was seen as the possible favorite. LSU wasn’t on the list, but that didn’t stop the speculation surrounding the Tigers’ place at the top of his recruitment. This past week, 247Sports reported that LSU had backed out of Kuminga’s recruitment. That has also been called into question (although the Herald-Leader was also told this week that Kuminga won’t be going to LSU). There’s currently not much consensus on who the favorite might be for the No. 1-ranked prospect. Yet, a decision might be coming soon.
“It doesn’t seem like that commitment is that far off. There’s at least some movement now toward a decision,” Rivals.com’s Corey Evans told the Herald-Leader, adding that he still expects Kuminga to reclassify from 2021 to 2020.
There’s been some buzz that he could publicly narrow his list to five schools soon. Evans mentioned Auburn, Florida State and Georgia as three schools that could make such a list. He didn’t totally discount the idea that UK could still be in the mix. “Before, I didn’t think Kentucky would be much of a spot for him, but with how many bodies they still need, you never know. It’s still Kentucky,” he said.
There’s another wrinkle.
“We’ll also see how this whole G League thing goes, as well,” Evans said. “Jalen Green did it — and if a couple of others do it — I wouldn’t be surprised if Kuminga is another guy that goes down that avenue.”
Green — the No. 2 player in the 2020 rankings — announced Thursday that he was skipping college to be a part of the G League’s revamped initiative for players straight out of high school. Fellow five-star recruit Isaiah Todd, who decommitted from Michigan this week, is expected to join him, and it’s likely a few other star recruits will be part of the league’s new program later this year.
The move is expected to be worth at least $500,000 for Green, who is likely to make more than that through endorsement deals that aren’t available to NCAA players.
Kuminga’s potential would likely be enough to get a similar deal to the one Green has coming.
“No doubt about that,” Evans said. “If that money is accurate, I see him being someone that looks at that avenue for next fall.”
Not on UK’s radar?
Chet Holmgren — the No. 4 player in the Rivals.com rankings for 2021 — did an extensive Q&A session with the website last week, touching on various aspects of his development, recruitment and the schools pursuing him.
“He did not bring up Kentucky whatsoever,” Rivals.com’s Corey Evans said, when asked by the Herald-Leader.
That’s not entirely a surprise. Holmgren — a 7-foot, 190-pound junior from Minnesota — is arguably the most intriguing prospect in the 2021 class. He’s a terrific rim-protector, but he’s also a player looking to play on the perimeter in college. He told the Herald-Leader in the fall that he’d be interested to hear from UK, but that he hadn’t yet. Evans didn’t write off the possibility of Kentucky interest in the future, but Holmgren has been on the national radar for more than a year, and it seems unlikely the Cats would jump into a crowded recruitment now.
Evans mentioned Gonzaga, Minnesota and Ohio State as three schools that “are really in there,” adding Georgetown, Memphis and North Carolina as three more that have done a good job in his recruitment so far.
Holmgren said he’d likely hold off on a college decision until after the 2020-21 season is completed, so any kind of recruiting commitment could still be a year away.
This story was originally published April 17, 2020 at 7:38 AM.
