Kentucky basketball mailbag: Will the NCAA let Olivier Sarr play for UK next season?
Earlier this week, we asked for your questions related to the Kentucky basketball program’s latest recruiting efforts, the outlook for John Calipari’s 2020-21 team, and anything else of interest related to the Wildcats.
This is the first of two mailbags answering some of the those questions:
When is the NCAA likely to rule on Olivier Sarr? Care to make a prediction?
This is obviously the No. 1 topic on the minds of Kentucky basketball fans, and for good reason.
Sarr — a 7-footer who announced his transfer from Wake Forest to UK this month — would be a major part of the 2020-21 squad, if he gets a transfer waiver to play right away next season. The latest (still very early) ESPN rankings for 2020-21 show just how big of a difference-maker Sarr could be for the Cats. Right now, ESPN ranks UK as the No. 13 team for next season, but those rankings noted that Kentucky would likely shoot into the top five if Sarr is eligible. That’s a big change in expectations hanging on one player.
The exact timeline for a final ruling on Sarr’s eligibility is a bit murky, though there are some guidelines for the process. UK will submit the waiver on Sarr’s behalf, and the NCAA will review that waiver and make an initial ruling. That review process typically has a turnaround time of three weeks, though an NCAA spokeswoman told me that “every case is different and decided based on the facts presented.”
That leaves some wiggle room on timing, but I’ve been told that UK started working on Sarr’s waiver request as soon as he signed with the program, so it wouldn’t be a stretch to expect an initial ruling on his case in the next few weeks. If he’s ruled eligible, that’s the end of the process. If the NCAA decides he doesn’t meet the criteria for immediate eligibility, then it gets tricky.
In that scenario, Kentucky would have an additional 30 days to come up with new information to present to the NCAA for review, and the NCAA would again look at the case. The last resort for UK would be an appeal to the Division I Committee for Legislative Relief, which would make a final ruling on the case.
So, if Sarr gets his eligibility on the first go-round, we could hear about it sometime next month. If he’s denied in UK’s initial waiver request, this is a process that could last deep into the summer and possibly still be up in the air in the fall.
As for a prediction: I think Sarr will play for Kentucky in the 2020-21 season.
That actually goes against all precedent in such cases — and Sarr’s status is still very much up in the air — but, if forced to pick a scenario, here’s saying he gets granted immediate eligibility.
There does seem to be a misconception out there that Sarr has a good case for a waiver simply because Wake Forest fired his coach, Danny Manning. That is not accurate. Yes, players whose coaches left have received waivers in the past, but there are always other variables that have led to immediate eligibility in those cases. Most often, it’s because the player is moving closer to home/family or the new coach says he won’t have an opportunity to play at that school anymore. Neither applies to Sarr, a native of France who was highly coveted by the new Wake Forest coaching staff.
The circumstances of Manning’s firing — one day before the NBA Draft deadline, after, Sarr claims, he had talked him into staying at Wake for one more season — make for an interesting case. But that alone is unlikely to get him the transfer waiver. All signs indicate that Manning and new Wake coach Steve Forbes will support Sarr’s plea to the NCAA. That’s also a positive, but it’s unlikely to change the overall view of the case (based on past precedent).
Maybe all of that is enough to get Sarr eligible. Or maybe the NCAA decides that it doesn’t need another PR nightmare and comes up with a temporary compromise to the ongoing transfer debate that would give immediate eligibility to any player who wants to move on after the departure of his college coach. There is widespread — perhaps universal — support for this in college basketball circles.
With the NCAA confirming this week that the “free transfer” rule will be delayed until at least January and continuing to dicker over the details to changes in the name, image and likeness rules that prevent college players from making money, allowing players whose coaches have departed to transfer without penalty would be a positive step.
College basketball heavy hitters such as Jay Bilas and Dick Vitale have already come out in support of Sarr’s case for immediate eligibility. If the NCAA rules against his initial transfer waiver request, those calls will only grow louder. One way or another, I think the NCAA avoids that public fight and Sarr plays for the Cats.
With Sarr still needing a waiver, I suppose we’ll have to keep going over the possible 2020 frontcourt reclassifications until the last moment possible. Who’s left? Efton Reid?
Whether the Wildcats are finished recruiting for the 2020 cycle — and, if not, who they might add — was a common question among UK fans. Contrary to what you might read on social media, Kentucky doesn’t know how the Sarr fight will end. There is optimism, but nothing close to supreme confidence. And so the Wildcats’ coaching staff must continue to plan for the scenario that the NCAA denies Sarr’s waiver, leaving UK with just two true post players: incoming freshman power forwards Isaiah Jackson and Lance Ware.
Few attractive options remain to fill that possible frontcourt void, but there are some talented players still out there.
Makur Maker is the only uncommitted post player in the 2020 class who could greatly help UK next season. If he goes the college route, Kentucky will be an option. But the general thinking in recruiting circles is that he keeps his name in the NBA Draft (and UK wouldn’t necessarily be the favorite even if he does play college ball).
The class of 2021 features a handful of talented big men who could make the jump to 2020, including Efton Reid and Moussa Cisse, two players Kentucky is recruiting.
If Cisse jumps to college next season, Louisiana State is expected to be his destination. (Though LSU’s ongoing NCAA problems could lead recruits to look elsewhere in the near future).
Reid looks the part of an instant-impact freshman who could be dominant in the college game. But he’s never visited UK, has said he places great value on relationships with college coaches, and has been more involved with other top schools up to this point. Kentucky would have a lot of work to do to get him in the fold for next season, and he might not reclassify anyway.
It’s worth noting that there are still talented players jumping into the NCAA transfer portal. Perhaps another post player of interest comes along in the near future? It’s a possibility.
And here’s another scenario: Sarr doesn’t get his waiver from the NCAA, but the ruling comes down before the start of the school year, and a class of 2021 big man who previously wasn’t planning to move to 2020 sees a major opportunity to make an immediate impact at Kentucky, reclassifies late, and picks the Wildcats. Stranger things have happened in recruiting.
If Sarr gets his eligibility, UK is probably fine in the frontcourt next season. If he doesn’t, the Cats could have some problems, and that’s why they’ll continue to look for possible additions.
Who else do you see getting a Kentucky scholarship offer in the 2021 class?
That’s a great — and very difficult to answer — question.
Normally this time of year, Kentucky’s coaches would be out on the recruiting trail identifying the next wave of top targets. And players from the 2021 class would be the top attractions at the shoe company stops and other major recruiting camps. With the coronavirus pandemic resulting in an NCAA ban on all recruiting for the foreseeable future, coaches aren’t getting to see players play this spring. While other schools are still doling out scholarship offers, Kentucky is not.
UK is meticulous in its approach to such offers, perhaps more so than any program in the country. Assistant coaches are usually the ones who identify the top prospective targets, but — before those players get a UK offer — Calipari likes to watch them play, in person, multiple times. He also likes to meet with the player and his inner circle to get a feel for what kind of person he’s bringing to campus and what kind of people are closest to him. It’s a process, and it’s apparently not one Calipari is planning to skip with the 2021 class.
So far, just six players in the class have UK scholarship offers: point guard Kennedy Chandler, shooting guard Jaden Hardy, forwards Patrick Baldwin Jr., Jonathan Kuminga and Paolo Banchero, and post player Moussa Cisse.
Cisse and Kuminga are widely expected to reclassify to 2020. That would leave just four players with UK offers in the 2021 class. That’s an incredibly low number for this time of year. But I was told this week that Calipari is unlikely to start offering guys willy nilly just because other schools are doing so. He wants to see them play, and UK’s staff wants to see how they’ve progressed over the past few months. The hope is that the NCAA will add some recruiting periods for August and September that would allow college coaches to evaluate 2021 prospects, and that’s when another major run of UK offers should be expected.
This is far from an exhaustive list — and some players not mentioned here will surely wow Kentucky’s coaches when those evaluation periods eventually do happen — but a few recruits to keep an eye on for UK offers would be California wing Peyton Watson, Virginia big man Efton Reid and Indiana power forward Trey Kaufman. All three of those players have had ongoing contact with UK assistant coaches, and all three seemed primed for breakout summers.
Part of the point of holding off on offers is identifying up-and-coming stars, however, and I’d certainly expect some others not currently on UK’s recruiting radar to emerge as major Wildcats targets within a few weeks of grassroots basketball picking back up again.
What would be the dream recruiting class for next year vs. who you think we will get?
UK’s 2021 dream recruiting class, as of now, would have to be a position-by-position signing of the players the Wildcats have offered at each spot: point guard Kennedy Chandler, shooting guard Jaden Hardy (who’s also looking to play some point), small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr., power forward Paolo Banchero, and Moussa Cisse at center. If Cisse reclassifies to 2020, throw Efton Reid — who I think will be a tremendous college basketball player — in at the “5” spot.
I’m not including No. 1 junior Jonathan Kuminga in this “dream” scenario because I think he ends up in the 2020 class — somewhere other than Kentucky — and I’m not terribly confident he ever plays college basketball at all. (He’d be a great get for the G League’s new program).
Also, this dream recruiting class is exactly that. A dream. It ain’t happening.
In the real world, I think Kentucky has a great shot to land Banchero, who would be one of Calipari’s biggest recruits in years and an instant difference-maker. I also like the Cats’ chances with Hardy, though he’s far from the sure-thing-UK-lock that some Kentucky fans seem to think he is. Hardy is a sure thing to be a super scorer at the college level, though, and he’d be another dynamic addition for Calipari.
I certainly wouldn’t write off Chandler to Kentucky, but I don’t think the Cats lead. Tennessee makes a ton of sense for him, though UK is right in the picture. Don’t see Baldwin or Cisse ending up in Lexington. I also think Reid will probably play elsewhere.
If Kentucky misses on Chandler, the Cats will need at least one more guard from the 2021 cycle. Keep an eye on California native Skyy Clark — now living in Nashville — as a possible future commitment. Clark can play anywhere in the backcourt. He’s currently in the 2022 class, but he is thinking about reclassification, and — if UK has a clear need for someone to play major minutes in 2021-22 — I could see him making that jump. And if he stays in 2022, I like the Cats’ chances just as much.
Versatile forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield is currently the only 2022 recruit with a UK scholarship offer, and pretty much everyone seems to think he reclassifies to 2021. If that happens, Kentucky would be in a very good spot. And he would be a tremendous addition.
I’d say at least a couple of other players in the 2021 class will sign with Kentucky. California wing Peyton Watson would be especially interesting. He has limitless upside, has mentioned UK as one of his dream schools, and is currently being recruited by Kenny Payne. Watson could easily be a top 10 player in the 2021 class.
And the safest prediction here: UK will add at least one transfer next year. Look for Calipari to keep going this route for the foreseeable future. The Cats added a graduate transfer in 2018 and 2019, and they’ve already added three transfers this offseason. As future recruiting cycles reach their end and UK’s roster holes for the next season become more evident, Calipari will probably look to the transfer portal for some instant-impact — and experienced — help for his young teams.
