What will Calipari’s class of 2021 look like? Recruiting expert shares his prediction.
The uncertainty over the current college basketball recruiting landscape has seemingly slowed Kentucky’s future roster-building efforts to a crawl.
Only a handful of high school players have UK scholarship offers. Only one prospect has received a Kentucky offer since COVID-19 put an indefinite halt to in-person recruiting activities in March.
In a normal year, Nike’s Peach Jam — and other top shoe company showcases — would have been played last week. John Calipari and UK’s assistant coaches would have been at those events. Existing targets would have been watched closely and new targets would’ve emerged.
In this not-so-normal summer, coaches are barred from gyms and the top players are, for the most part, sidelined. While UK takes a meticulous approach to the recruiting process, other top programs haven’t been shy about handing out scholarship offers.
That doesn’t mean Kentucky is falling behind on the recruiting trail. Far from it.
Rivals.com published a series of stories last week ranking the most likely destinations for the top five prospects in the 2021 class. There was some good news for Kentucky in that series. And there’s even more good news for the Cats beyond that national top five.
The Herald-Leader spoke with Rivals.com national analyst Corey Evans over the weekend to get his take on six players who have scholarship offers from Kentucky — Patrick Baldwin Jr., Paolo Banchero, Jaden Hardy, Kennedy Chandler, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Skyy Clark — and the recruiting expert’s current predictions say the Cats will land the majority of that five-star group.
Kentucky also offered scholarships to current No. 1-ranked junior Jonathan Kuminga and recently reclassified center Moussa Cisse (now in the 2020 class). Cisse committed to Memphis on Wednesday. Kuminga is expected to announce his decision Thursday but UK is not seen as a realistic option.
Here’s what Evans thinks about the other six players with offers from Calipari.
Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Rivals.com national analyst Eric Bossi ranked the most likely destinations for Baldwin — a 6-foot-9 forward from Milwaukee — and he pegged Duke and Milwaukee, in that order, as the top options for the No. 2 player in the Rivals.com rankings. Kentucky was third on his list.
Evans told the Herald-Leader that he has the “same vibe” on that recruitment. Baldwin is the youngest player to ever receive a scholarship offer from Mike Krzyzewski, and his father is the head coach at Milwaukee, so it’s logical they’d be the top two on his list.
Duke is “the one to beat,” according to Evans, but UK shouldn’t be discounted just yet.
Evans said that Kentucky’s best shot at landing Baldwin might be for the NCAA to lift its ban on in-person recruiting, which has barred prospects from taking visits to college campuses. That ban is currently in effect until Aug. 31, though many in college basketball circles expect it to be extended, possibly through the end of the year or even further into the future.
If players can take visits, Baldwin would almost certainly book a trip to Lexington.
“That can only help their cause — getting him to campus,” Evans said. “And the longer it goes, the better off it is for Kentucky. … They’re definitely right there, man. I agree with Bossi on that.”
If Baldwin can’t take any more visits for the foreseeable future — and he wants to make a college decision in time for the early signing period in November — that wouldn’t be great for the Cats. And that might be the most likely scenario.
“I don’t think visits are going to happen until Jan. 1,” Evans said. “I’d be surprised if visits can take place at all this fall or winter.”
With Kuminga expected to officially announce his move to the 2020 class when he reveals his future plans Thursday afternoon, Baldwin would likely rise to the No. 1 spot in the Rivals.com rankings.
Paolo Banchero
The No. 3 player in the Rivals.com rankings has been seen as a Kentucky lean for a few months now. While that’s still the case — Evans ranked UK as Banchero’s most likely destination — it might not be as much of a sure thing as some fans think.
“I think it’s less clear cut,” he said. “I think Kentucky is in a good spot, but it’s been nine months since he visited Kentucky, and a lot can happen.”
Banchero skipped USA Basketball camp to go on that visit last October. By all accounts, it was a success, and UK remains the team to beat for the versatile 6-10 forward. But there are other enticing options.
Evans ranked Duke at No. 2, followed by Tennessee, Washington, Gonzaga and Arizona. He told the Herald-Leader that he would further classify that into a clear top three: UK, Duke and Tennessee. Washington, his hometown school and the alma mater of both of his parents, remains a dark horse, especially during the uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic.
“It’s familiarity,” Evans said. “And familiarity during uncertain times is difficult to come by.”
Banchero has been open about his willingness to leave home for college, however. He’s also been clear about his desire to play alongside a premier point guard at the next level. Kentucky, Duke and Tennessee — the Vols are the current favorites for star point guard Kennedy Chandler — could all check that box.
After his first round of college visits last season, UK is still seemingly out front.
“He’s been adamant about playing on the biggest stage,” Evans said. “And, as we know, it’s nearly indisputable that the biggest stage in college basketball — at least for the past several years — has been Kentucky. So that has him thinking about that program, for sure.”
Jaden Hardy
As the No. 6 overall recruit in the 2021 rankings, Hardy’s prediction post from Rivals.com came Sunday, and Bossi put Kentucky in the No. 1 spot.
Evans told the Herald-Leader a day earlier that he would also have the Cats ranked first, by a safe margin.
“I think it’s Kentucky and everyone else,” he said.
The 6-4 shooting guard was one of the first players in the 2021 class to land a scholarship offer from Calipari, and the UK coach has recruited him hard ever since.
“The only disconcerting thing is that (Hardy) hasn’t committed yet,” Evans said. “It’s hard to be a ‘lean’ that long and there not be some worry about, ‘Why not? Why hasn’t he done it yet?’”
The current recruiting ban might have something to do with that.
Hardy had planned to visit Lexington for last year’s Big Blue Madness, but he opted for USA Basketball camp instead, figuring there would be plenty of other opportunities to make the Kentucky trip. Playing in the Las Vegas area made it more difficult to travel to Lexington during his busy high school season, and COVID-19 has made it impossible to visit this spring or summer. So, the wait continues.
There’s also no danger in Hardy losing his spot in UK’s class by holding off on a decision.
“The gap between him and everyone else at the ‘2’ guard spot in the 2021 class is one of the biggest gaps I’ve seen in recent memory at one particular spot on the floor,” Evans said. “So he has the leverage, and Cal can’t say, ‘Take it or leave it,’ because he knows how good Jaden is. And Kentucky isn’t really recruiting another ‘2’ guard.”
Evans fully expects UK to end up with Hardy eventually, but he listed several other programs as possible contenders: Oregon (where his brother will play this season), UCLA (ties to Vegas-area recruiting), Arizona (often the destination for top talent out west), Michigan (Hardy lived in the state before moving to Vegas, and he still has family there) and Texas Tech (a rising threat in recruiting circles that has been pursuing him hard).
The Herald-Leader was also told recently that the G League could be targeting Hardy for its revamped professional program.
For now, they’re all chasing the Cats.
“Kentucky has to screw it up somewhere along the way, and someone also has to come in there and take it from him for him not to be a Wildcat next year,” Evans said.
Kennedy Chandler
The No. 10 overall player and top-ranked point guard in the 2021 class has narrowed his list to UK, Duke, hometown Memphis, North Carolina and Tennessee.
Kentucky has made the 6-foot playmaker a major priority — Chandler is the only ’21 point guard with a UK offer — but a familiar foe appears to be in better shape.
“I think Tennessee is definitely the team to beat right now,” Evans said.
The Vols have clearly prioritized Chandler, and their 2021-22 roster could set up perfectly for him to run the show as a freshman on a squad with lofty team goals. Duke might have more of a logjam at the point guard spot, and Kentucky could return incoming freshman Devin Askew, who is not projected as a one-and-done draft pick. (Memphis and North Carolina aren’t currently seen as likely destinations, and Chandler is leaving Memphis to play his senior year at a Kansas prep school).
Evans said he would probably handicap UK at No. 2 in Chandler’s recruitment, noting that he and Askew could easily co-exist in the same backcourt.
“Honestly, Kennedy and him complement each other,” he said. “It would be a smaller backcourt, but it would be more than a serviceable one.”
But ...
“I think the Vols are in a very, very, very good spot right now.”
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield
The No. 6 overall player in the 2022 class, Huntley-Hatfield has long been mentioned as a reclassification candidate. The versatile 6-9 forward from Clarksville, Tenn., has family ties to former UK player Alex Poythress and has said Kentucky was his favorite school growing up.
Evans thinks the Cats lead in his recruitment.
“He’s so good. He’s so big. And he has so many abilities — he actually reminds me a little of Kevin Knox with the perimeter-based skill set at the ‘4,’” he said. “And I think Kentucky’s in a great, great spot. When the time comes — and possibly pairing him next to a Paolo Banchero — it makes a lot of sense.”
If Huntley-Hatfield does move to 2021, teaming up with Banchero would be a dream frontcourt pairing. Evans specifically mentioned Michigan and Tennessee — the alma mater of Huntley-Hatfield’s AAU coach and mentor, Bobby Maze — as other top suitors.
Skyy Clark
The 6-3 guard from Los Angeles — recently moved to Nashville — became the first player to get an offer from Kentucky during the COVID-19 shutdown a couple of weeks ago, and he’s the rare prospect to land a UK offer despite Calipari having never seen him play in person.
Rivals.com ranks Clark as the No. 17 player in the 2022 class, though Evans said he thinks the playmaker is due for a rise, and 2021 reclassification rumors persist.
What’s clear to just about everyone in recruiting circles right now is that Kentucky is the team to beat for Clark, who visited Lexington in February and has not been shy about his love for the UK program.
“I think he’s definitely Kentucky’s to lose,” Evans said.
Though Clark is often mentioned as a combo guard, Evans said he sees him as a pure point guard and a player who is evolving into one of the very best prospects at that position in all of high school basketball. He also has an unselfish mentality that would allow him to share the backcourt with another talented point guard.
“I do think the one school that could really take him away from Kentucky is Carolina,” Evans said. “Roy (Williams) has done an awesome job of recruiting Skyy Clark. He’s really made him a priority.”
Evans also mentioned Michigan and Gonzaga as top suitors, though Kentucky is currently on its own tier in Clark’s recruitment.
UK’s 2021 recruiting class
Before making an early prediction on Kentucky’s final recruiting class for next year, Evans predicted that both Clark and Huntley-Hatfield would eventually make the move to the 2021 class.
“And I think you could have those two with Paolo Banchero and Jaden Hardy and some other four-star recruit,” he said. “That’s a five-man class, and you throw Obi Toppin’s brother (Jacob) in there and some other guys that stay … and you have a formidable group that has a little more experience and maturity, but versatility as well.”
Kentucky added nine new scholarship players this past offseason — six high school recruits and three transfers, two of whom hope to be eligible immediately — and there’s a further hope that some of those players will stick around more than a year.
Jacob Toppin will begin his UK playing career in the 2021-22 season, and Evans mentioned Askew, Cam’Ron Fletcher, Lance Ware, Isaiah Jackson and Dontaie Allen as UK players who could very well be back for that campaign.
“There’s less of a need for quantity in the 2021 class,” he said. “And by this time next year, we’ll be talking about the one-time transfer rule probably being in effect, and that only helps the cause.”
So, even though Calipari has sent out relatively few scholarship offers to players in the 2021 class, Kentucky still has plenty of options for this strange recruiting cycle. And even with only four players in Rivals.com’s Top 25 rankings for 2021 having picked their schools — and the calendar for campus visits up in the air — Evans expects plenty of five-star college commitments before the early signing period in November.
“There are going to be some dominoes. And once one falls, the timetable for some of those guys speeds up three or four months. All it takes is one, and that just starts a whole cascade of things.”
This story was originally published July 13, 2020 at 7:32 AM.
