Recruiting expert explains why Kentucky’s chances might’ve dropped with Paolo Banchero
The chances of Kentucky landing arguably its top basketball recruiting target in the class of 2021 might have taken a hit late last week.
On Friday afternoon, five-star point guard Kennedy Chandler announced his commitment to Tennessee. That wasn’t a surprise. The Volunteers had long been the favorites for 2021’s top-ranked point guard — a Memphis-area native — despite scholarship offers from Kentucky, Duke and many other top programs.
The Cats have other talented options at that position, too. Where Chandler’s decision could hurt UK the most is with Paolo Banchero, a major Kentucky recruiting target and the player who might end up as the No. 1-ranked prospect in the 2021 class.
The prevailing wisdom in recent months is that UK had become the team to beat for Banchero, a 6-foot-10 power forward from Seattle currently ranked No. 3 in the class.
Not long after Chandler revealed his Tennessee commitment, 247Sports national analyst Jerry Meyer logged the first prominent Crystal Ball pick in favor of the Volunteers for Banchero, who is close friends with the top-ranked point guard and has publicly talked about teaming up with him in college.
“To me, it’s the best pick right now,” Meyer told the Herald-Leader on Monday night. “I think we have time. Who knows what happens (over the next few months). The Kennedy Chandler commitment, I think, is important in this equation. I think (assistant coach) Kim English has made inroads and put Tennessee right in there. Kenny Payne leaving Kentucky doesn’t help — I don’t think they’re out, and I’m not saying he’s a lock to Tennessee or anything like that.
“To me, it just seemed like the best pick I should have. That was my approach.”
A relatively new wrinkle in the 247Sports Crystal Ball feature allows analysts to assign a confidence level — on a scale of 1-10 — to each of their predictions. Meyer put a “6” on his Banchero pick. “I don’t sense that anything is imminent. I just feel like Tennessee is the leader.”
Meyer acknowledged that there is still plenty of time for Banchero to go in a few different directions with his recruitment. There is no timetable for his college announcement. The national analyst also downplayed talk of Banchero and Chandler being a “package deal” — a phrase that has gained popularity in recruiting circles in recent years to describe two star players who make a joint decision to play for the same college. Package deals rarely pan out, and Banchero and Chandler — and those around them — have repeatedly said that the two five-star prospects would ultimately make independent recruiting decisions.
Chandler’s decision to join Tennessee’s program is just one reason for Meyer’s prediction. But it’s an important one.
“There is a relationship there. They’re comfortable with each other, and there’s something appealing to Paolo playing with him in college,” he said. “Every great big man — every good big man, every average big man — wants a good point guard. I wouldn’t label this a package deal. I don’t think there are that many actual package deals. That term gets thrown out a lot. I just think Tennessee is in a strong position. And part of that is that I think Paolo thinks playing with Kennedy Chandler would be a positive. Whether it’ll happen or not, we’ll see. But that’s just a part of it.”
The six finalists on Banchero’s list are UK, Tennessee, Arizona, Duke, Gonzaga and Washington, the hometown school. Meyer sees a clear top tier in that group.
“I would assume Washington and Kentucky and Tennessee would be the top three,” he said. “From where I sit — looking into the future — I would think one of those three is where he ends up.”
Coaching carousel
The dynamics of the Kentucky and Tennessee coaching staffs are also an interesting factor in Banchero’s recruitment.
Vols assistant coach Kim English has become a popular name in recruiting circles since joining that staff last year. English — a former star player at Missouri — was a second-round draft pick in 2012, played 41 games in the NBA and kicked around the pro ranks for another couple of years before becoming a college assistant in 2015. The 31-year-old was the lead recruiter for Chandler, and he has the same assignment with Banchero.
Previously on the Colorado staff, English is now recruiting for a program that has seen a rise in recent years under head coach Rick Barnes. Three Vols — none of them top 100 recruits out of high school — were selected in last year’s NBA Draft. That’s a “strong argument” on the recruiting trail, Meyer said. And the team is bringing in one of the top recruiting classes in the country this season, with another looking like it might be on the way in 2021.
“He is making waves. He’s probably the (hottest) assistant name out there right now,” Meyer said of English. “I think he’s good at what he does, in that he’s talented, he’s professional. As a recruiter, what that would entail is I think he brings a sense of confidence to people. He’s a smart person. He’s well rounded. I think he’s a listener. I think he’s a person who doesn’t come across like he has all the answers and wants to do all the talking. He’s a guy who is kind of cool. … So I think recruits and their families and the people around them — he helps bring that sense of trust and, ‘I’ll get better in this program.’
“I’m sure he’s telling Paolo about how good he would be with Kennedy. And, ‘We’ll do this, we’ll do that. You’ll go and succeed and get better, and look at these guys who got better.’ I just think Tennessee has a strong message right now. They’re up there with the big boys, as far as what they can present to recruits.”
Meanwhile, UK just lost Kenny Payne, who had the reputation as one of the nation’s best recruiters and was renowned for his work with post players. The Cats’ pursuit of Banchero has been a team effort, with John Calipari spending as much time personally pursuing the star prospect as just about any recruit in recent years. But Payne’s departure could still lessen Kentucky’s pitch with the 6-10 power forward.
“They lost Kenny Payne, and that’s what he brings,” Meyer said of Payne’s reputation with big men. “It doesn’t mean a big guy can’t get good at Kentucky. But I think it’s a factor. … So that’s a void, when you lose that. But Kentucky is always going to be good. They’re always going to recruit well. But are they going to get Paolo? I don’t know. Even the great ones lose some.”
If the Cats ultimately miss out on Banchero — and Meyer again cautioned there’s still a lot to play out with his recruitment — they could be missing on the best college prospect in the entire class. MaxPreps.com named Banchero the national junior of the year this past season after he averaged 22.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots per game.
There’s a reason Calipari has made multiple flights to Seattle to see Banchero and his family.
“He’s an exceptional player,” Meyer said. “College ready. He’s NBA ready, to be exact. He has a man’s body, a man’s game. He’s very polished. … Just a big, physical presence who controls horizontal space and is really skilled. And he really has an intelligent game. He’s very much in the argument for No. 1.”
This story was originally published August 18, 2020 at 7:41 AM.
