Get ready for more shifting narratives in this uncertain basketball recruiting cycle
It didn’t take long for the narratives surrounding the Kentucky basketball program and the possibilities for this recruiting cycle to change in a big way.
Just last month — though UK still had zero commitments for its 2021 class — a rosy picture of another No. 1-ranked recruiting class for John Calipari was coming together.
The Cats are still expected to have one of the nation’s best classes by the end of the cycle, but that group will undoubtedly look a lot different than was previously expected.
Going into August, the general consensus in recruiting circles was that Kentucky was the leader for Paolo Banchero and Jaden Hardy — two of the top five players in the 2021 class — as well as Skyy Clark and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, two five-star class of 2022 prospects widely expected to reclassify and play college ball next season.
That quartet, combined with the anticipated return of several talented players from this season’s team, would have given Kentucky yet another stacked roster for the 2021-22 campaign.
What a difference a few weeks make in this wacky recruiting cycle.
Banchero committed to Duke. UK stopped recruiting Huntley-Hatfield. And Kentucky’s fortunes have (seemingly) faded for both Clark and Hardy.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats picked up a commitment from four-star point guard Nolan Hickman, a player who wasn’t even known to be on UK’s radar until just a few days before that pledge, and Calipari has extended an additional four scholarship offers to standout players in the 2021 class.
The assumption in some recruiting circles now is that Kentucky leads for No. 1-ranked point guard Hunter Sallis and top-30 recruit Bryce Hopkins. UK also appears to be in a good spot to possibly land super-athletic forward Daimion Collins — the No. 10 player in the new Rivals.com rankings — and the Cats have entered the picture with top-30 prospect Moussa Diabate, another talented frontcourt player.
Clark and Hardy — two five-star guards — are still possibilities, too, though UK’s chances might be dwindling in both recruitments. Once considered a Kentucky lock, Clark is now more of a toss-up. In one of his final predictions before leaving Rivals.com for a job in the NBA, national recruiting analyst Corey Evans picked North Carolina to land Clark’s commitment. On the same day, he predicted that Hardy would end up at UCLA. In both cases, his previous predictions had been in favor of Kentucky.
Hardy’s recruitment is an interesting case. College coaches pursuing him had long been wary of a possible jump to the G League, and that remains one of the scenarios (perhaps the most likely one). In addition to that, a few Pac-12 schools, UCLA chief among them, have emerged as legitimate contenders for his college commitment. All that put together, and the Cats’ chances have to be viewed as less than 50 percent to end up with Hardy in their class.
College coaches and recruiting analysts have been talking behind the scenes this summer of how difficult it’s been to get good evaluations of the players in the 2021 class. Few of the top prospects in that group — the pool from which Kentucky recruits — have played much at all, and coaches and (most) recruiting analysts haven’t been able to get in gyms to see those players in person, because of travel concerns related to COVID-19.
It’s much more difficult to get a true read on a player through livestreams and game film than the normal practice of sitting courtside, where evaluators can get a much clearer look at not only a recruit’s skill set but his body language, interactions with teammates, reactions to coaching, officiating, etc.
This summer has proved that it’s also tougher to get a read on the actual recruitments.
Much of the best “inside” information in recruiting comes from in-person conversations, often at actual recruiting events, where those closest to the players’ recruitments (parents, coaches, others in the inner circles, even the players themselves) are more open and willing to divulge info related to those recruitments than they normally would on phone calls and other means of communication.
It would also be nearly impossible for a recruitment like Hickman’s to remain so secretive if basketball events were being played with college coaches in attendance. With coaches sitting courtside for games and the ability to do postgame interviews with recruits, Kentucky wouldn’t have been able to keep a lid on its interest in the star point guard for long.
The NCAA’s announcement this week that its dead period will be extended through at least the rest of 2020 will only lead to more recruiting surprises. And the recruiting community’s loss of Evans, who is now a scout for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Evan Daniels, who recently left 247Sports for a job with Creative Arts Agency, means two of the very best and most trusted sources of legitimate information in grassroots basketball won’t be around to publicly make their recruiting predictions.
Kentucky will surely end up with one of the best recruiting classes in this 2021 cycle — Calipari always does — but expect a few more surprises along the way, and look at those public predictions with a little added skepticism in the coming months.
Three point guards for UK?
For pretty much any other basketball program, the thought of three highly touted point guards — or three highly touted players at any position — playing together on the same team would be a pipe dream.
Kentucky is not any other basketball program, and the Wildcats’ most recent campaign has added a unique pitch to John Calipari’s already well-stocked recruiting arsenal.
This past season, Ashton Hagans, Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley — three five-star point guards out of high school — thrived while sharing the floor at Kentucky.
A similar situation could be playing out for next season.
Kentucky already has a commitment from Nolan Hickman — ranked No. 52 overall by Rivals.com but seen as an instant-impact college point guard — and current freshman Devin Askew is projected by most to be a multi-year college player.
The Wildcats have also made Hunter Sallis — a 6-foot-5 playmaker, now ranked by Rivals.com as the nation’s top point guard — one of their very top priorities for the 2021 class. Rivals national analyst Corey Evans wrote recently that he expects Sallis to ultimately sign with UK, and he told the Herald-Leader that he’s sensed a change in Calipari’s approach — one that is clearly resonating with recruits.
“I need to throw multiple ball-handlers out there — guys that want to have the ball in their hands but are OK with not having the ball in their hands,” Evans said of UK’s outlook on recruiting multiple point guards. “And I bet that’s what Nolan Hickman saw. And that’s what Devin Askew saw. And that’s what Hunter Sallis is probably buying into.”
It’s a setup that Calipari has used to varying degrees in the past but never with more volume than this past season, which saw Hagans, Maxey and Quickley — three players recruited to play the same position — all log at least 33 minutes of playing time per game.
It’s a formula that Kentucky fans could see more of in the near future.
Duke’s 2021 class
Kentucky ended the most recent recruiting cycle with the nation’s No. 1 class for the first time in five years, according to the 247Sports composite rankings. In 2019, that honor went to Penny Hardaway’s upstart Memphis program. In each of the three years before that, Duke came out on top.
In 2021, it’s looking like the battle for the No. 1 ranking will once again go through Durham.
The Blue Devils already have commitments from Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin, the No. 3 and No. 6 players in the 2021 rankings, respectively. Duke also has 100 percent of the current Crystal Ball predictions for both small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr. and shooting guard Trevor Keels, the No. 1 and No. 16 players in the 247Sports composite rankings, respectively.
Landing all four of those prospects — a group that would include three of the top six players in the country — would give the Blue Devils a seemingly insurmountable lead for the No. 1 class rankings, especially when factoring in scenarios for even more recruiting additions in this cycle.
To put that possible class into perspective, Kentucky, which already has a commitment from Nolan Hickman, could add Hunter Sallis, Bryce Hopkins, Daimion Collins and Moussa Diabate — the four most recent UK scholarship offer recipients — and still not surpass Duke, according to the 247Sports class calculator. (Throwing someone like Jaden Hardy or Skyy Clark into that mix would give the Cats the slight edge, however).
As mentioned previously, holding 100 percent of the Crystal Ball picks right now might not mean anything come decision time, but — as it stands — Duke’s prospects are looking good for 2021.
Other top classes
As it stands, Florida State — coached by longtime UK assistant Leonard Hamilton — has the nation’s No. 1 class following five early commitments for 2021, including pledges from three five-star prospects: Matthew Cleveland (No. 21), Jalen Warley (No. 24) and Bryce McGowens (No. 25).
The Seminoles will likely fall out of the top spot over time, but Hamilton’s program is well-positioned to end up near the top of the final 2021 recruiting rankings. Over the past seven recruiting cycles, Kentucky, Duke and North Carolina are the only other programs to land commitments from at least three five-star players in the same class.
Villanova currently has the nation’s No. 2 class, followed by Baylor, Michigan State and Michigan. Louisville — with four early commitments — is No. 12 nationally, and the first Southeastern Conference program doesn’t pop up until No. 18, the spot where Louisiana State is ranked.
With 15 five-star players and a total of 36 top 100 prospects — according to the 247Sports composite rankings — still uncommitted, as well as the inevitable reclassifications that will come after the 2020-21 season, these team rankings will surely be shuffled around in the coming months. Expect UK, Duke and North Carolina to be among the leaders when the rankings finally settle in the spring.
