Top basketball prospects are making college decisions earlier, despite NCAA recruiting ban
With the calendar flipping to October — typically an especially busy month in basketball recruiting — it’s already been an especially busy cycle for the top prospects in the class of 2021.
As of now, 68 of the top 100 players in the 2021 class — according to the updated Rivals.com rankings — have chosen their colleges. That’s an extraordinarily high number, based on comparisons to other recent recruiting classes.
Last year at this time, only 39 of the eventual top 100 players in the 2020 class had made their college decisions. The year before that, only 30 of the top 100 recruits in the final 2019 rankings had committed to a school before Oct. 1.
Even more big names could be coming off the recruiting boards over the next few weeks. In each of the past four recruiting cycles, at least 10 seniors in the Rivals 100 rankings have made their college decisions in October. In the 2018 cycle, 21 such players committed to a school during that month. It’s been a popular time for commitments in the past due to its close proximity to the early signing period in mid-November and the goal of many players to get their college choices out of the way before their senior seasons of high school begin.
With the NCAA’s ongoing “dead period” for recruiting activities, top players aren’t waiting around to make their college decisions in this cycle. The NCAA recently extended its dead period — meaning college coaches are barred from recruiting off-campus and high school players are banned from taking recruiting visits to colleges — through at least Jan. 1 of next year, and the chatter in recruiting circles indicates that it could be extended well beyond that date due to ongoing concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.
No opportunity for college visits and no end in sight to this dead period means recruits are going on what they’ve already seen and making their college choices right now. So far, it hasn’t been advantageous for Kentucky, which has just one commitment — four-star point guard Nolan Hickman — and seemingly few opportunities for fall pickups in the 2021 class.
Who’s left in 2021?
Only 32 players in the top 100 of the Rivals.com rankings for next year remain uncommitted, an unusually small number of elite prospects for colleges to recruit at this stage in the cycle.
Seven of the top 10 players in the class have not yet announced their college choices, though three of those recruits — power forward Jabari Smith (No. 4), shooting guard Jaden Hardy (No. 5) and power forward Michael Foster (No. 8) — have been open about their interest in skipping college altogether and jumping right to the professional ranks, with the G League being an option for all three.
It’s a safe bet that a few currently uncommitted players will indeed go straight to the pros from high school, dwindling the available pool of 2021 talent even more. It’s also expected that a few elite players currently in the 2022 class will make the jump to 2021 through reclassification. One candidate for such a move — five-star point guard Skyy Clark — remains a major Kentucky target and is planning to announce a college commitment Oct. 22.
In addition to Smith, Hardy and Foster, the still-uncommitted players in the Rivals top 10 are small forward Patrick Baldwin Jr. (No. 1), center Chet Holmgren (No. 3), point guard Hunter Sallis (No. 6) and power forward Daimion Collins (No. 10). All four of those players are expected to end up in college.
Only five other players in the top 25 remain uncommitted: small forward Caleb Houstan (No. 11), point guard JD Davison (No. 13), shooting guard Aminu Mohammed (No. 15), shooting guard Trevor Keels (No. 16) and center Charles Bediako (No. 25). Davison will announce his college choice Saturday.
Ten players ranked in the 26-50 range by Rivals.com are still uncommitted, and only 10 prospects in the 51-100 range have yet to make a college decision.
Kentucky recruiting outlook
In addition to 2022’s Skyy Clark, the Wildcats have just six scholarship offers out to uncommitted players in the 2021 class, and few of them appear close to a college decision.
No. 1-ranked Patrick Baldwin Jr. has Kentucky on his list, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he makes a college announcement in the fall. It would be a surprise, however, if he picks UK. The favorites are Duke and hometown Milwaukee, where his father is the head coach.
Jaden Hardy intends to hold off on a decision until the spring, and any college announcement would have the cloud of a possible G League move hanging over it.
Hunter Sallis told MadeHoops.com recently that he intends to make a spring decision. Daimion Collins’ high school coach told the Herald-Leader last week that the 6-foot-10 forward also plans to make a spring decision, though he said those plans could still change and ultimately lead to a college announcement before the high school season.
Power forward Moussa Diabate — ranked No. 29 nationally — is the most recent recipient of a UK scholarship offer, but he hasn’t even cut down his college list and claims no frontrunners in his recruitment. He doesn’t seem likely to make a decision anytime soon.
Small forward Bryce Hopkins — No. 30 in the Rivals rankings — seemed on the verge of a Kentucky commitment not that long ago, but he has struggled to even trim his current list of nine schools, and every passing day without a new development in his recruitment creates more uncertainty over his ultimate destination, though UK remains the consensus favorite.
So, Kentucky fans might be waiting a while longer to find out who will be playing for the Cats next season, and transfers will remain an alternative to high school recruits if John Calipari still has roster needs come spring.
Top classes so far
Florida State enters October with the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class, thanks to five early commitments, including pledges from five-star forwards Matthew Cleveland and Bryce McGowens.
Duke is No. 2 in those rankings with early commitments from two top 10 national prospects — power forward Paolo Banchero and small forward A.J. Griffin — and the Blue Devils might be the most likely program to end the cycle at No. 1. They remain in good shape for No. 1-ranked Patrick Baldwin Jr. and No. 16-ranked Trevor Keels, a shooting guard.
Villanova, Baylor and Michigan State round out the top five, according to Rivals.com.
Kentucky sits at No. 44 nationally with the lone commitment from point guard Nolan Hickman, the No. 52 player in the class, though the Cats are expected to end up with one of the nation’s top recruiting classes yet again, once some of the aforementioned UK targets make decisions.
The early signing period is set for Nov. 11-18 and will go on as planned despite the NCAA’s ban on regular recruiting activities.
