More on Justin Powell, UK’s chances, and a transfer portal that’s about to get crazy
Even as Kentucky’s postseason is set to begin and John Calipari’s Cats fight to keep playing deeper into March, another name is dominating the UK basketball landscape.
Justin Powell is in the NCAA transfer portal, teams are inquiring about what’s next, and Kentucky is one of the programs with a high level of interest in his new recruitment.
Powell — a 6-foot-6 guard from Prospect, Ky. — played just 10 games for Auburn before suffering a season-ending concussion in early January, but he proved himself to be a versatile perimeter player and possible future first-round NBA Draft pick in that short amount of time.
He’s the biggest name to hit the NCAA transfer portal so far, but it’s still early, and this is an offseason that’s expected to see roster shuffling on an unprecedented scale, even by the transient standards of high-level college sports.
Will Powell ultimately be the No. 1 transfer in this cycle? Or top three? Top five? Hard to say.
“It’s really tough to gauge right now, and that’s nothing on Justin. That’s just speaking to how crazy this portal will get this year,” 247Sports analyst Travis Branham told the Herald-Leader. “You’re going to see an absolutely absurd amount of players in that portal. And he’s definitely going to be one of the hottest players there, but — just given where it’s already at — in two weeks, there’s no telling what this list will look like.
“You’re seeing some top guys already go in, and most teams are still playing basketball.”
For now, all eyes are on Powell, who was barely ranked inside the top 200 nationally in last year’s recruiting class before landing on future NBA Draft sheets after just a few college games. (ESPN had him No. 16 in its 2022 mock draft just a few days before his injury).
His proven ability at a high college level will make him one of the most coveted recruits in this transfer cycle. Gonzaga and Virginia — this year’s NCAA Tournament favorite and the most recent NCAA champion — were among the first to reach out.
“It’s going to end up being a national recruitment,” Branham said, noting that the pursuit will prominently feature home-state powers Kentucky and Louisville.
Indeed, the Herald-Leader was told even before Powell’s name officially hit the transfer portal Wednesday morning that UK and Louisville had already emerged in national recruiting circles as the two teams with the best chance to land the Kentucky native.
Powell’s situation is an early example of just how hectic this offseason is going to get.
National transfer numbers
Branham has been tracking the transfer numbers for 247Sports, and the trend is unmistakable. There are going to be a lot of college basketball players on the move this offseason.
As of Wednesday, there were already right around 300 players in the NCAA transfer portal. According to Branham, on the same date last year, there were “only” 189 players in the portal. That’s about a 60 percent increase. Ultimately, right around 1,000 players entered the transfer portal in 2020. Extrapolating those numbers out, the expectation would be that around 1,500-1,600 players will enter the portal this year.
“But I think it’ll even be more once the (free transfer) rule comes into play,” Branham said. “And there were no coaching changes last year. There was no coaching carousel. There’s just going to be so much change to hit this year, that the volume of transfers will go off the charts.”
The NCAA is expected to formally announce later this year that all players who transfer in good academic standing this offseason will be able to play immediately for their new teams in the 2021-22 school year. And, as Branham mentioned, there were relatively few coaching changes after last season due to the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. More coaching changes always equal more transfers, and — even if there’s coaching continuity within a program — players will be more open to switching schools with the knowledge that the NCAA will allow them to play for their new team right away.
“Once the NCAA officially announces that ruling on transfers, you’re going to see even more players jump in,” Branham said. “That’s probably going to be a ways away, but that just shows you how much talent can jump into this transfer pool this season.”
Branham predicted that there could be more than 800 players in the transfer portal by the end of March, with more and more players making the move after their current season ends. All told, he said he thinks there could be around 2,000 prospective transfers this offseason, which would be double last year’s total.
Complicating the situation even more is the NCAA’s decision to grant an extra year of eligibility to all student-athletes, in effect giving current players five years on the court instead of four. Some seniors who would have otherwise been finished with college basketball this month are already using that ruling as a loophole to finish their college careers at a new school.
“In the past week, we’ve probably seen 20 or 30 seniors hop in that obviously never would’ve had that year of eligibility,” Branham said. “But now with the NCAA’s ruling, they now all have an extra year to play and they’re looking for a new place to go. So that just adds to the numbers.”
Justin Powell’s decision
The uncertainty over who might enter the transfer portal will put increased pressure on high-major coaches as they try to figure out who to pursue this offseason. There will surely, in many cases, be conversations within programs over whether to strike when an attractive player hits the portal or hold off to see if someone “better” comes along at a later date.
That will lead to some missed opportunities, as well as some prolonged recruitments as transfers play the same balancing act of whether to accept an enticing scholarship offer or see if a “bigger” program shows later interest.
None of this, however, is likely to apply in Powell’s case. Wherever he ends up in the final transfer rankings for the 2021 offseason, he’s surely to have his pick of destinations.
“I think, with Justin, he’s different because of what he did at Auburn this year,” Branham said. “So I think this one will move fairly quickly. I’ll be shocked to see this stretch out until, let’s say, the middle of April. I would be shocked to see that. Just because he’s going to be coveted. Coaches are going to want to get him on board as soon as he’s ready and able to. I would not expect coaches to be sitting there refreshing the portal to see if a better name pops in. Because Justin is a really good player and had a great start at Auburn this season, and there’s going to be other people waiting to get their chance to add him onto their roster next season.”
Judging from conversations the Herald-Leader has had with others in recruiting circles over the past 48 hours, it would be fair to call Kentucky the team to beat at this stage in Powell’s recruitment.
There’s still work to be done, and there’s still the pesky Southeastern Conference rule that prohibits players from transferring from one SEC school to another and playing immediately, but that rule was ultimately set aside last fall due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and league commissioner Greg Sankey said at the time that it would be evaluated closely this offseason.
“Given the increased number of waiver requests this year, and a changing national landscape related to student-athlete transfer issues, it is evident that the current transfer bylaw must undergo a thorough review by conference membership in the most timely manner possible and prior to the 2012-22 academic year,” Sankey said.
The expectation is that, if the NCAA rules a transfer eligible to play right away — as it is planning to do for all players next season — the SEC will follow suit. (There’s also a wrinkle to that SEC rule that players leaving teams with postseason bans can be exempted, and Auburn did announce a self-imposed postseason ban for this year after Powell was already on campus).
Still, it’s yet another part in a constantly moving landscape that coaches will have to navigate as they construct next season’s rosters.
In Kentucky’s case, they’re now pursuing Powell along with several unsigned recruits from the high school senior class, while also keeping an eye on additional transfer possibilities and trying to gauge which of their own players will be back for another year.
And, oh yeah, they have a win-or-go-home game to play Thursday afternoon, with, they hope, more in the days that follow.
“The amount of things that coaches have to constantly juggle — I do not envy that job,” Branham said. “They’re fighting for their season (Thursday), but at the same time, you also have other guys you have to worry about. ... How they manage it, I don’t know. But this is something that you just find a way to make it work.”
