Five big Kentucky basketball recruiting questions now that the signing period is over
The early signing period for college basketball ended Wednesday, and it appears that Kentucky’s incoming class for next season is pretty much set.
The Wildcats signed four top-20 players — point guard Skyy Clark, combo guard Cason Wallace, shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe and wing Chris Livingston — and should have one of the best groups of newcomers to start the 2022-23 season.
With so few stars left uncommitted in the 2022 class — and with none of them holding a UK scholarship offer — it appears likely that the Cats are finished recruiting for this cycle. At least, when it comes to prospects currently in that 2022 class.
There are still some possible needs for next season’s roster, and there are still some questions to be answered on the recruiting front over the next few months. This class might already be complete, but Kentucky basketball recruiting should still provide plenty of intrigue.
Five big questions for UK now that the early signing period is finished:
Will Shaedon Sharpe play this season?
We now know that Sharpe — previously the No. 1 recruit in the 2022 class — will enroll in classes at UK in a few weeks and join the team for the remainder of the 2021-22 season. The plan going in will be for Sharpe to simply practice with the team, work on his strength and conditioning, and get acclimated to John Calipari’s coaching and life within the Kentucky program before making his debut at the start of the 2022-23 season.
Will it really end there?
Sharpe’s camp sounds open to the idea of the 6-5 guard playing sometime this season, if Calipari needs him. The recent news that shooting guard CJ Fredrick is likely to miss the entire season with an injury means one fewer backcourt player on the Kentucky roster, but there’s still plenty of talent at Calipari’s disposal there.
The UK coach has Sahvir Wheeler, TyTy Washington and Kellan Grady starting, with Davion Mintz as the main guard off the bench and Dontaie Allen playing relatively limited minutes behind him. Calipari also has several bigger wings — some have played the “3” spot so far — and frontcourt players to work into the lineup, especially when Jacob Toppin and Lance Ware return from injuries.
Sharpe is coming to UK early to better prepare himself for next season and aid his long-term development. Yes, he’s a tremendous talent, but it would seem to be a disservice to the 18-year-old’s development plan to throw him onto the court this season if he’s not yet ready to make a major impact. So, don’t expect Calipari to do that.
It also seems unlikely that the UK coach would take major minutes away from Wheeler, Washington, Grady or Mintz unless one of those players was grossly underperforming. So far, Mintz is playing the least of those four at 19.3 minutes per game. Right now, there’s not much extra playing time to be had in this backcourt, so Calipari would effectively have to bench someone to get Sharpe major minutes. And would it really do much good to trot him out there for quick bursts just a few weeks after joining the team?
As it stands, Sharpe looks like a great insurance policy in case there is another major injury on Kentucky’s team, but — even if the possibility of playing is being entertained — it doesn’t seem likely with the current roster dynamics. Even if he comes in and lights up UK’s practices in January, would Calipari risk shaking up the team’s chemistry if Kentucky is winning and the current guards are playing well?
One thing’s for sure, there will be no shortage of speculation on this topic as the season progresses.
Will Kentucky add a post player?
UK struck out on big men in the 2022 class, missing on possible No. 1 overall recruit Dereck Lively II (Duke) and likely top-15 prospect Adem Bona (UCLA). And there are no other instant-impact bigs left uncommitted in the 2022 class who have been linked to Kentucky.
So, what next?
Well, Calipari can now wait and see what he needs going into next season. That means monitoring the future plans of Oscar Tshiebwe, Daimion Collins and Lance Ware. If any of those players move on from the Cats after this season, UK is likely to need another frontcourt player.
Lucky for the Cats, the NCAA transfer portal has been rich with post talent over the past few years, and UK would likely have their pick of the available litter if there’s a clear opening for major playing time heading into next season.
There’s always a risk going that deep into a recruiting cycle with a major hole to possibly fill, but Calipari has shown time and again that he can handle such situations, and the new system that makes transfers immediately eligible will help greatly with such needs.
UK should also have some major flexibility with the 2022-23 roster. Chris Livingston could easily play major minutes at the “4” spot, if necessary, as could some of the other bigger wings on the current team, if they return. So, even if one of the current big men does leave at season’s end, UK has enough versatility to adapt.
The most likely scenario is that Kentucky loses Tshiebwe and/or Collins at the end of the season and then adds at least one instant-impact frontcourt player from the transfer portal. It’ll be several months before this one gets answered.
Who should be No. 1 in 2022?
247Sports has already slid Shaedon Sharpe into the 2021 rankings — at No. 3 behind Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero — and Rivals.com and ESPN are likely to do the same in the coming weeks.
That means each of those services will need to name a new No. 1 recruit.
247Sports has already gone with Duke signee Dereck Lively II. The current No. 2s in the other rankings are UCLA guard signee Amari Bailey (Rivals.com) and Lively (ESPN).
Whoever holds the No. 1 ranking now, it’s likely to be a battle moving forward.
Judging from conversations with recruiting analysts this fall, the primary contenders seem to be Lively, Bailey, Baylor guard signee Keyonte George, UK signee Chris Livingston, and emerging big men Kyle Filipowski and Yohan Traore.
Lively — a versatile 7-footer who seems a great fit for the NBA’s current direction — probably has the upper hand. Bailey is a bit of an unknown after opting out of AAU ball this past spring and summer, meaning he hasn’t really played in front of many analysts or college coaches in more than a year. George — often listed as a combo or shooting guard, but actually a 6-5 player with point guard abilities — was phenomenal on the Adidas circuit this past summer and will play a national schedule with IMG Academy (Fla.) this season.
Filipowski (Duke) and Traore (uncommitted) jumped into the top five of the Rivals.com post-summer rankings and will be closely watched this season to see if their rapid ascent might carry them even higher. Both are the type of bigs who could be considered for the top spot if they make a couple of more developmental jumps.
Livingston is an interesting case.
It seems that — for as long as this 2022 class has had rankings — he’s been mentioned just behind Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren, the constants at 1-2 before both reclassified a few months ago and enrolled at Memphis for this season.
Livingston suffered an overall drop coming out of the summer, however — to No. 8 on the Rivals.com board and No. 12 on ESPN’s list. Still, 247Sports has him ranked at No. 4 overall, behind Lively, George and Duke signee Dariq Whitehead, a high-floor recruit who never seems to come up in No. 1 discussions.
Analysts have mentioned Livingston when talking to the Herald-Leader about the No. 1 ranking. The long-celebrated recruit didn’t have the best team fit on the Adidas circuit this past summer, something that affected his play and likely led to a drop in the rankings. He’s also played his high school ball, thus far, against inferior competition in Ohio. (Livingston averaged 31.1 points, 15.8 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 4.7 steals and 4.3 blocks per game as a junior).
For his senior season, Livingston has moved to perennial powerhouse Oak Hill Academy (Va.), and he’ll be playing a national schedule with ample opportunity to make a final impression on those who put together the rankings.
The safe bet is on Lively to finish with that No. 1 ranking, but it’s not unrealistic to think that Livingston — a powerful, athletic and versatile 6-7 wing with perimeter skills — will flourish in his year at Oak Hill and make a serious run at the top spot.
Will any 2023 stars reclassify?
It’ll obviously be awhile until we know the answer to this question, but past history would suggest that, yes, at least one major 2023 star will end up in the 2022 class.
Just look at the last recruiting cycle. Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren were fixtures in the top two spots in the 2022 rankings. Both moved to 2021. Scoota Henderson was also a longtime 2022 five-star. He also reclassified to 2021. Shaedon Sharpe enrolling early technically makes him a 2021 player, according to the recruiting services. And Tennessee freshman Brandon Huntley-Hatfield is yet another former 2022 star who moved into the 2021 class.
The year before that, five-star talents Jonathan Kuminga, Moussa Cisse, Khristian Lander and the late Terrence Clarke all reclassified from 2021 to 2020.
Go back another year, and Anthony Edwards, RJ Hampton, Nico Mannion and N’Faly Dante were all top-15 recruits who moved from 2020 to 2019.
The trend is clearly there, and the trend would suggest that a few players currently high up on the 2023 list will be playing college basketball next season.
Exactly who is tough to say at this point, but it’s also interesting that Kentucky is off to an extremely early start with this 2023 class, hosting each of the top five players from that group for official visits while welcoming a few additional five-star juniors to campus over the past several weeks.
It’s worth pointing out that some of the recent high-profile reclassifications were players moving back into their original classes. Yet, others were recruits truly heading to college (or the pros) a year early. And Bates is a great example of a player leaving early — he doesn’t turn 18 until January — for a shot at better competition and, perhaps more importantly, an opportunity to make some serious money off the NCAA’s name, image and likeness reforms.
Some of UK’s biggest 2023 targets — No. 1-ranked DJ Wagner, for instance — won’t turn 18 until 2023, so even if such a player were to reclassify and enter college basketball next year, he would still need to play two more seasons before he’d be eligible for the NBA Draft.
That’s the position Bates was in, and he still made the move. It won’t be a surprise if others follow that route. And it should be expected that some talented recruits will jump to that 2022 class before this cycle is finished.
What will Reed Sheppard do?
This one gets answered Saturday morning, when Sheppard — the son of UK greats Jeff Sheppard and Stacey Reed Sheppard — announces his college commitment from the North Laurel High School gymnasium.
All signs point to Kentucky being the pick, and — if he does indeed announce for the Wildcats — he will be UK’s first commitment for the 2023 class.
Even with some story lines still left unresolved for the 2022 cycle, much of the Wildcats’ recruiting interest will be on players from that 2023 class, and Sheppard — the No. 17 junior in the country — would be a tremendous first addition to the group.
As previously mentioned, Kentucky has already hosted the top five players in the 2023 composite rankings for official visits this fall, with No. 8 recruit Robert Dillingham also on that guest list and No. 16 recruit Justin Edwards coming to town this weekend.
If Sheppard does indeed commit to the Cats on Saturday, he might not be the only early pledge for Kentucky’s 2023 class. There’s been buzz in recruiting circles this month that Dillingham — a versatile combo guard — could be close to a commitment, and if Edwards gets a UK scholarship offer soon, the Wildcats will likely be seen as major favorites in his recruitment, too.
There also seems to be an expectation that UK will land at least one — and more likely at least two, if DJ Wagner plays college basketball — of those recruits currently ranked in the top five nationally.
This 2023 class is shaping up to be one of Calipari’s best at Kentucky, and the Wildcats are hoping that the ball will get rolling this weekend.
