What a Kentucky player’s sliding NBA Draft stock could mean for next basketball season
A slow — but not terribly unexpected — start to this college basketball season has sent one University of Kentucky player tumbling in the NBA Draft rankings.
Freshman forward Daimion Collins — a five-star recruit in the 2021 class — was seen as a possible lottery pick coming into the season. Following the 2021 high school all-star circuit, ESPN ranked Collins as the No. 12 draft prospect. 247Sports had him ranked No. 9 on the 2022 draft board going into the season opener. Others projected him in lottery range, and he was universally predicted to be a first-round pick after just one season with the Wildcats.
Those projections are quickly changing.
ESPN now has Collins at No. 28 overall, barely inside the first-round cutoff of 30 picks. Two “aggregate” mock drafts — both compiling a consensus ranking based on mock drafts from several different mock drafts — posted last week from USA Today and HoopsHype.com had Collins at No. 27 overall.
And, more recently, college basketball insider Jeff Goodman posted his first 2022 mock draft Wednesday morning. Collins’ name was not included at all among the 30 first-round projections.
This isn’t necessarily a surprise.
Through nine games this season, Collins is averaging 5.2 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocked shots in 13.3 minutes per game. In the Wildcats’ only two games against high-major opposition — losses to Duke and Notre Dame — Collins has zero points, zero rebounds and zero shot attempts, playing a total of just five minutes.
That usage is also not entirely unexpected.
Coming into the season, Collins was billed as a player with otherworldly athletic ability and tremendous upside, but also someone who was at a relatively early stage in his basketball development, a prospect who would need much more time to realize his full potential.
After playing just two minutes in the season opener against Duke, Collins had 14 points, six rebounds and four blocked shots in a victory over Robert Morris next time out, and John Calipari declared that he would need to find more opportunities to get him on the floor. All of those statistical totals remain season-highs for the 6-foot-9 forward, and he has just one other game with double-digit scoring since that night.
If Collins stays where he is on NBA Draft boards — or continues to fall even further — that could be beneficial to Kentucky’s basketball future.
The Cats have struck out so far in their search for additional frontcourt help for next season, and star center Oscar Tshiebwe is performing like someone who will be playing professional basketball somewhere in 2022. If the Cats lose Tshiebwe, they’ll almost certainly want to add another big for next season. With five-star recruit Yohan Traore looking like the only legitimate option from the high school ranks, Kentucky would need to roll the dice with the transfer portal if they don’t land him.
If UK were to lose Tshiebwe and Collins, the Cats would be in an even bigger recruiting bind, leaving still-developing Lance Ware as the only possible returning frontcourt player. That would lead to the tough task of likely needing to add at least two instant-impact bigs before next season.
The benefits of a second season of Collins at Kentucky could also lead to personal gain for the five-star freshman.
As the No. 28 pick in next year’s draft — where ESPN currently projects him — Collins would stand to make about $3.6 million total over his first two seasons in the league. If he returns to UK and builds on his vast potential, that number obviously goes up. The No. 10 pick in the 2023 draft, for instance, will make about $8.2 million in his first two NBA seasons. That’s a big difference.
And, unlike past UK players who found themselves in similar stay-or-go situations, Collins would be in a position to reap the benefits of name, image and likeness opportunities while still developing his game in college, something that should net him at least six figures in earnings for a sophomore season.
The season is young, and there will still be many opportunities for Collins to impress NBA scouts over the next few months. At this rate, however, it looks like there’s a good chance he could be back in Lexington for the 2022-23 campaign. And that could be a great thing for both parties.
This story was originally published December 15, 2021 at 12:10 PM.
