Kenny Payne is the next coach at Louisville. What does that mean for Kentucky recruiting?
Former University of Kentucky assistant coach Kenny Payne is expected to be officially named the new head coach of the rival Louisville Cardinals on Friday morning.
What does the hire of John Calipari’s former right-hand man mean for U of L? And what, if any, negative effect could Payne’s return to his alma mater have on UK’s own recruiting efforts?
Those questions will be fully answered over time, but what’s clear in the present is that Payne’s hiring will be well-received in national recruiting circles. And Kentucky could have some legitimate cause for concern.
“From a recruiting perspective, it’s a big hire,” 247Sports analyst Travis Branham told the Herald-Leader. “Kenny is proven to be one of the best recruiters in all of college basketball. He’s had tremendous success on the recruiting trail.”
Indeed, Payne, who spent five years as an assistant at Oregon before occupying a spot on Calipari’s staff at Kentucky from 2010 to 2020, earned the reputation over time as a “players-first” coach who formed strong connections with high school prospects and their families on the recruiting trail.
By the time he got settled in on Kentucky’s staff, Payne was regularly mentioned on national lists of the best recruiters in college basketball. He was also around for four Final Fours and a national championship at Kentucky, becoming the country’s highest-paid assistant coach before leaving for the New York Knicks two years ago.
“He’s kind of like the player whisperer,” former national recruiting analyst Corey Evans told the Herald-Leader when Payne departed for the NBA. “He’s that big uncle, big dad, big brother — whatever you want to call it. Heck, once guys leave Kentucky, some talk more about Kenny Payne than they do about John Calipari. And that’s because of the relationship that they have with him. Whether it’s on the floor or off the floor, or on the recruiting side.”
Louisville has called a press conference for 10 a.m. Friday to officially name Payne its next head coach, pending the finalization of that hiring process.
The Cardinals’ program still hasn’t received final word on possible NCAA sanctions related to violations that have now been unresolved for five years, something the previous U of L coaching staff had to battle on the recruiting trail. Payne will also be a first-time head coach, but that hasn’t stopped others — like Penny Hardaway and Juwan Howard — from immediately locking up five-star recruits at their alma maters in recent years.
With the NCAA ordeal still looming, the budget situation within U of L athletics sapping resources away from the program — especially relative to the Rick Pitino era — and an interim athletics director and university president, there will obviously be some obstacles in the early going of this new era of Cardinals basketball.
“But you still have incredible resources, a very strong, passionate fan base, and obviously Kenny Payne, who’s a players’ coach at the end of the day,” Branham said. “He’s going to be able to attract top-tier talent. The biggest question mark for him in securing that talent is going to be these NCAA sanctions that have been hanging over their heads for five years. But it’s a good hire. And it’s a perfect match — who the alumni and fan base have wanted from day one, it seems like.”
‘Good place to start’
As of now, Louisville, which parted ways with Chris Mack in January, has three basketball commitments for next season: Indianapolis small forward Tae Davis (No. 139 nationally in the 2022 class), unranked-but-high-upside Bahamian center Fredrick King, and small forward Kamari Lands, who is No. 47 overall in the 2022 class but has not yet signed with the Cards.
Looking further ahead, U of L has an early commitment from a hometown star, and that’s good news for Payne as he tries to rebuild the Cardinals’ program.
Male forward Kaleb Glenn is the No. 54 overall player in the 2023 class, according to the 247Sports composite rankings. (Rivals.com has him 36th overall). He’s from Louisville, his father played football for the Cardinals, and there’s no reason to think Glenn will be wavering on his commitment due to the recent coaching change.
Instead, he’s the type of player Payne can count on to help get things rolling.
“It’s definitely a good place to start,” Branham said. “Those are the guys you want to start with. Those guys lay your foundation. And then you see what bigger fish you can add on — whether it be out of high school or out of the transfer portal, which obviously you can do very quickly and have success with.”
The 247Sports analyst acknowledged that Mack and his coaching staff were a bit hamstrung by the NCAA clouds that continued to hang over the program, but there were also some self-inflicted hardships on the recruiting trail.
U of L landed the nation’s No. 12-ranked recruiting class in 2019, which was Mack’s first full cycle as head coach. Other than hometown star David Johnson, who left for the NBA Draft after two seasons, that group turned out to be incredibly underwhelming on the court. And that was the high point of recruiting in the Mack era.
“They tried to go after players that, frankly, they were never going to get,” Branham said. “So they wasted a lot of time and resources. Kenny Payne has a pretty good track record of knowing the recruitments to get involved with, and what he can win and what he can’t win.
“I think he’ll be a success on the recruiting trail. It’s just going to be a matter of when he’ll be extremely successful. Will it be before or after the sanctions are finally announced?”
The major successes could come relatively soon.
Bad news for Kentucky?
Calipari was asked about the pending hire of his former longtime assistant during an NCAA Tournament press conference Wednesday afternoon.
“They could not hire anybody that will do a better job than Kenny Payne,” he said. “Great coach, great human being, great husband, great father. Louisville graduate. I may say he should have been hired before there, but, you know what, they get him, they got the best of the best.”
The UK coach might not feel as good about the move a few months from now.
If Kentucky needs additional recruits for next season, any new faces are likely to come from the transfer portal of experienced college players. So, the Cats’ next big recruiting battleground will be with the 2023 class.
The longtime No. 1-ranked player in that class — New Jersey combo guard DJ Wagner — has been Kentucky’s top target for years. Wagner’s father, Dajuan Wagner, played at Memphis for Calipari. The 16-year-old’s stepbrother, Kareem Watkins, is a walk-on at Kentucky.
DJ’s grandfather, however, is Milt Wagner, who starred at Louisville in the 1980s. Calipari has ties to him, too. He hired Milt to be Memphis’ director of basketball operations in 2000, laying the groundwork to bring in Dajuan as his first big recruit at that program.
Payne and Milt Wagner were teammates on Louisville’s 1986 national championship squad, and DJ Wagner plays for a Nike league program led by former U of L star Pervis Ellison, who was also a key player on that title team.
Branham said that Wagner’s recruitment has been tilting even more toward Kentucky in recent months, which echoes what the Herald-Leader has been told by others in national recruiting circles. But …
“Now, with Kenny Payne being hired, that is the one thing that can really throw a wrench into that whole plan,” Branham said. “Obviously, DJ’s grandfather played at Louisville. There are rumblings that he could potentially join the staff with Kenny Payne there. So, if anyone is going to take DJ Wagner from Kentucky — from what it sounds, at this point — it’s going to be Kenny Payne at Louisville.”
Losing Wagner — to their archrival, no less — would obviously be a huge recruiting defeat for the Wildcats, especially with the star prospect considered to be a major Kentucky lean up until this point. (Ellison also coaches top-five 2023 recruit Mackenzie Mgbako, another UK target, but Branham and others have told the Herald-Leader this week that Duke is and will remain the team to beat for his commitment).
Whatever happens with Wagner, the Cats likely have a new rival on the recruiting trail for the foreseeable future. In the recent past, Louisville has mostly swung and missed with elite recruits around the country. With Payne in charge, the Cardinals will be expected to step up their game.
Exactly how often the two go head to head for star players remains to be seen.
“I think that’s TBD,” Branham said. “Again, it depends on what kids are feeling like with what could be overhead (with the NCAA) at Louisville. Some kids might be willing to overlook it a little bit more. It’s all dependent upon that. But, at the end of the day, I think once that cloud is finally lifted, there will definitely be some added competition out on the recruiting trail for Kentucky.”
This story was originally published March 17, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
