Alabama, SEC are clearly underrated by the oddsmakers after three weeks

Is universally recognized college football powerhouse Alabama actually “underrated” this season?

Believe it or not, the answer so far is very clearly yes! If you accept the premise that liquid betting markets establish how a team is “rated” in the collective consciousness of informed observers, then the Crimson Tide have been significantly underrated three games into the 2018 season.

• Alabama Against the Point Spread
  
  
• Alabama (-23) beat Louisville 51-14
  
  
• Alabama (-36) beat Arkansas State 57-7
  
  
• Alabama (-22) beat Ole Miss 62-7
  
  

Oddsmakers and bettors pegged Alabama as national championship favorites as soon as last season ended. No changes through a summer of available futures prices. Sure, other teams were considered as legitimate contenders. A few respected dark horses out there (though many have pulled up lame already). But, ‘Bama was at the top of the heap in betting odds, and in the Power Ratings that oddsmakers commonly use to make their opening game lines.

Then, the Crimson Tide beat those expectations by 14, 14, and 33 points in their first three games. Or, in football terms … by two touchdowns, two touchdowns, and almost five touchdowns. The unanimous best team in the nation is playing at a level double digits higher than initial lofty assessments.

Are there any skeletons in the closet? The most obvious one is that Alabama hasn’t stood toe-to-toe with any other national superpowers. It’s possible that this is just a case of a bully taking advantage of weak opposition. The problem with that line of thinking … Louisville is likely a generic ACC team rather than a small-college cupcake … and Ole Miss dominated Texas Tech of the Big 12 to open the season. Alabama is making Power 5 schools look like cupcakes, rather than playing cupcakes.

Also of note, only a little “home cooking” in there. Alabama/Louisville was played at a neutral site. The Tide blew out Ole Miss in Oxford.

Still, plenty to be learned in the 2018 season. For now, analysts and bettors should be aware that Alabama currently looks to be head and shoulders above the field. Markets aren’t yet reflecting true talent levels.

That’s also true for the SEC as a whole, as we update a theme VSiN has been covering for you this season. Against non-conference opponents, the SEC went 5-4 ATS last week (covers by Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, and Texas A&M; failures by Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, and Kentucky). That brings the full season mark to 23-10 against the spread.

Betting markets determine how teams are “rated.” Alabama and the SEC have clearly been underrated.

Time to zoom in on the three Mississippi schools we’ll be covering for you all season here in the Sun Herald. Last Saturday …

▪ Mississippi State (-32) beat Louisiana Lafayette 56-10. The Bulldogs stay on the list of underrated teams with a perfect 3-0 mark against market expectations. This was a two-touchdown cover in a possible letdown spot after a big road win at Kansas State. Mississippi State won total yardage 607-310 while averaging 8.6 yards-per-play.

▪ Ole Miss (+22) lost to Alabama 62-7 as we already discussed. The Rebel defense is going to be over-matched by quality offenses. Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu had a poor passing line of 7-22-2-133. We mentioned earlier this season that he seems to be the type of quarterback that puts up huge numbers on vulnerable defenses, but struggles badly vs. elites.

▪ Southern Miss had its game at Appalachian State postponed by hurricane Florence.

This week ...

▪ Mississippi State (-10.5) is back on the road, opening SEC play at Kentucky. The Wildcats are already 1-0 in league action with a road upset of Florida. That point spread suggests a lot of market respect for the Bulldogs.

▪ Ole Miss (-28) looks to bounce back big at home against Kent State. Should be a defense Ta’amu can light up. If the weather is warm and humid, Kent State could wilt in the second half in the same fashion as Southern Illinois two weeks ago.

▪ Southern Miss (-14) hosts Rice. Rest or rust? Betting markets are currently leaning toward USM enjoying the benefits of extra rest due to the postponement with a point spread of two touchdowns.

Back with you Saturday to try to solve the mystery behind an 0-2 ATS start for the New Orleans Saints … who almost lost outright to Cleveland despite an ideal scheduling scenario.

This story was originally published September 20, 2018 at 1:00 AM with the headline "Alabama, SEC are clearly underrated by the oddsmakers after three weeks."