Who should you bet on in 2023 Barbasol Championship? Five picks we like at Keene Trace.
To use a horse racing analogy — which feels appropriate given the location — this week’s Barbasol Championship won’t boast the strongest field of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season.
But, there’s still money to be made.
On Thursday morning, 150-plus golfers will take to Champions at Keene Trace in Nicholasville.
Many of them will be in pursuit of their first major golf tour victory. All will be chasing the winner’s payout of $684,000 from a $3.8 million purse.
Between PGA Tour journeymen and players invited to compete from the DP World Tour, the Barbasol Championship field is filled with unknowns.
It also lacks a clear-cut favorite: Former U.S. Open champion Lucas Glover is the highest ranked player in the field per the Official World Golf Rankings, but Glover still ranks No. 112 in that metric.
So who should you bet on to win the Barbasol? What betting categories have value this week? Which under-the-radar golfer could have a strong showing?
Here’s a look at five betting picks to consider this week for the Barbasol Championship at Keene Trace (odds listed as of Wednesday morning).
On Monday, the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission approved emergency regulations that set a rollout date for retail sports gambling in Kentucky on Sept. 7 with mobile sports gambling beginning on Sept. 28.
Lucas Glover to win
Identifying a player to win the Barbasol is like walking through a minefield.
Because the field is — on the whole — not very good. Recent results from even the top contenders are likely to feature a lot of missed cuts and mundane performances.
So when someone’s recent form entering the Barbasol jumps off the page, it’s time to take notice. Lucas Glover is a prime example.
A four-time PGA Tour winner and the winner of the 2009 U.S. Open, Glover has undergone a career resurgence in recent years.
Most notably for betting purposes this week, though, is Glover’s rock-solid recent form: While he’s made only 12 of a possible 22 cuts this season, Glover has finished in the top 20 in three of his last four events.
This includes a tie for fourth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a tie for sixth at the John Deere Classic in the last two weeks.
Glover’s last eight rounds of golf have all been sub-70.
Adding to these impressive stats is the fact Glover has struggled with his putter this season: He ranks 178th on tour in strokes gained putting, which highlights how effective his iron play has been this season (in particular in the 175-200 yard range).
The Barbasol usually produces a winner of far lesser pedigree than Glover, but frankly that’s because not many players with his pedigree play in the event.
Glover is by far the player in the best form entering this week at Keene Trace, and he’s shown the consistency (eighth on tour in driving accuracy and second in proximity to the hole on approach) to make him a worthy selection.
Odds: FanDuel (+2200, meaning you’ll win $2,200 on a $100 bet or, to use horse racing parlance, 22-1), DraftKings (+2200), BetMGM (+2000), BetRivers (+2000)
Taylor Pendrith to finish in top five
Sometimes, it’s best to keep things simple.
Taylor Pendrith is one of the best golfers in the field this week, and enters the tournament with the second-highest OWGR in the field (No. 113), just one spot behind Glover.
A 32-year-old Canadian who played on the International team in the 2022 Presidents Cup, Pendrith has made 16 of a possible 23 cuts this season. He’s only been able to translate that to four top-25 finishes though, with his best result being a tie for seventh at Pebble Beach in February.
So why Pendrith to finish in the top five this week?
First, course familiarity.
Pendrith — who is the betting favorite to win this week, according to DraftKings — has played in the last two Barbasol Championships. He finished in a tie for 11th in 2021 and a tie for 13th in 2022.
Last year’s showing came in a return performance for Pendrith following a broken rib and a positive COVID-19 test result.
Pendrith shot 67 and 66 on the weekend last year to surge up the leaderboard.
If he starts strong this week — which isn’t farfetched given that Pendrith is the best player on tour in approach from 175-200 yards and 10th in putting inside 10 feet — there’s a good chance he could leave Central Kentucky with a life-changing win.
Odds: DraftKings (+360)
Marcus Helligkilde to finish in top 10
One of the calling cards for the last two editions of the Barbasol has been a strong international presence.
As the result of an existing partnership between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, both memberships have access to play stateside in both the Barbasol Championship and next week’s Barracuda Championship.
One of the beneficiaries of this last year was Marcus Helligkilde, as the Danish golfer finished in a tie for eighth at the Barbasol and a tie for 13th at the Barracuda, which uses a Stableford scoring system.
This indicates that Helligkilde, who primarily plays on the DP World Tour, is comfortable with traveling across the Atlantic Ocean and performing on different styles of golf courses and against different competition.
Helligkilde’s 2023 form on the DP World Tour also indicates a player that could be ready for more big performances in America.
Helligkilde has four top-15 showings on the DP World Tour this season. Granted, all four of these showings came between February and April.
With that said, Helligkilde has shown before that he likes the Keene Trace layout: He shot a pair of 66s on the weekend last year.
Odds: DraftKings (+600)
Josh Teater to finish in top 20
Josh Teater is a fan favorite in Nicholasville.
The former Henry Clay High School (Lexington) and Morehead State standout is essentially playing on his home turf this week, and that’s usually proved fruitful for the 44-year-old who was born in Danville.
In his four previous Barbasol Championship starts at Keene Trace, Teater is a perfect 4-for-4 in making the cut.
His results over this span — T-40 (2018), T-6 (2019), T-15 (2021) and T-63 (2022) — indicate his ability to hang with PGA Tour regulars on a course that he is familiar with.
Teater received a sponsor’s exemption into the 2023 Barbasol field, and he will enter the tournament in good form.
He’s 23rd on the Korn Ferry Tour points list and nearly won on the developmental tour in June when he lost in a playoff.
Teater has already played in one PGA Tour event this year, and fared well in it: He finished in a tie for 29th at the Puerto Rico Open in March.
Odds: DraftKings (+275)
Winning margin to be one stroke exactly
This is a hyper-specific bet to be sure, but one that has history on its side.
In the previous four editions of the Barbasol Championship contested at Keene Trace, three of the four winning margins were exactly one stroke.
The only one that wasn’t was Séamus Power’s 2021 playoff win.
The Barbasol is a birdie fest, with Power’s 21-under par being the worst winning score since the tournament moved to Kentucky in 2018.
In a field with so many unknowns, the hierarchy of Barbasol contenders could be unpredictable.
Something that isn’t?
Knowing the tournament will likely be decided by a slim margin.
Odds: DraftKings (+250), BetRivers (+225)
PGA Barbasol Championship
When: Thursday through Sunday
Where: Keene Trace Golf Club in Nicholasville (Champions Course)
TV: 4-7 p.m. Thursday-Sunday (Golf Channel)
Streaming: Peacock
Tickets: Visit BarbasolChampionship.com/Tickets
This story was originally published July 12, 2023 at 6:00 AM.
