Who should you bet on for 2024 PGA Championship in Louisville? 5 picks we like at Valhalla.
Less than two weeks after a thrilling 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby, another premier, annual American sports event is taking place in Louisville.
The 106th edition of the PGA Championship — the second men’s professional golf major of the year — will be played from Thursday to Sunday at Valhalla Golf Club.
This is the fourth time Valhalla will host the PGA Championship, having previously staged the event in 2014 (won by Rory McIlroy), 2000 (won by Tiger Woods) and 1996 (won by Mark Brooks).
A Jack Nicklaus-designed golf course that opened in 1986, Valhalla underwent significant changes in the lead-up to this year’s PGA Championship.
While there will be plenty of new features to note at Valhalla as it hosts its seventh PGA of America spectator event, there’s also plenty of meaningful data to go off of when looking at this week’s tournament from a gambling perspective.
Can McIlroy — who won last week’s Wells Fargo Championship — win a major for the first time in a decade?
Will world No. 1-ranked Scottie Scheffler continue his current hot streak (he’s won four of his last five starts) and go 2-for-2 in majors this year after winning the Masters?
And what to make of Louisville native Justin Thomas, who has won two PGA Championships but dealt with wild fluctuations in his game of late?
Here’s a look at five betting picks to consider this week for the PGA Championship at Valhalla (odds listed as of Tuesday afternoon).
Scottie Scheffler to finish in top five
Few things in golf, or in sports, have been as reliable of late as Scottie Scheffler.
Not only has Scheffler won four of his last five starts, but his string of performing well at major championships extends much further.
Since 2020, Scheffler has missed just one cut in majors, and he’s finished in the top 25 in each of his other major appearances. This span also includes 10 top-10 finishes in majors.
Included in this stretch are all of Scheffler’s best finishes at major championships: two wins at the Masters (2022 and 2024), runner-up finishes in the U.S. Open (2022) and PGA Championship (2023) and an eighth-place showing at the British Open (2021).
Per DataGolf, Scheffler is the clear best driver in the world right now, an important element for this week’s tournament with Valhalla playing at more than 7,600 yards.
DataGolf also has Scheffler with a greater than 42% chance of finishing in the top five of the PGA Championship.
Perhaps the only question about Scheffler’s game entering this week’s PGA Championship is on the mental side of things: Scheffler and his wife, Meredith, recently announced the birth of their first child.
But short of any mistakes due to sleep deprivation, Scheffler is the penciled-in favorite to win this week for a reason.
Odds: FanDuel (-125), DraftKings (+105), BetMGM (-120).
Bryson DeChambeau to win
The day-to-day discourse surrounding Bryson DeChambeau — the 2020 U.S. Open winner — has faded with time since he moved to the controversial LIV Golf tour in June 2022.
But the big-hitting DeChambeau has continued to show up in major championships. Since his move to LIV, he has recorded a trio of top-10 finishes at majors, including a tie for fourth at last year’s PGA Championship and a tie for sixth at the Masters earlier this year.
DeChambeau’s power style should suit him well at Valhalla, which has all three of its par 5s playing at least 570 yards this week. Even the par 3s will play long during the PGA Championship, ranging from 190 to 254 yards.
While he hasn’t won a tournament since LIV Golf’s Chicago event last September, DeChambeau has four top-10 finishes on the LIV tour this year in addition to his strong showing at the Masters (despite shooting 73 or worse in each of his final three rounds).
DeChambeau started fast at both last year’s PGA Championship (firing an 4-under 66 in the opening round) and this year’s Masters (7-under 65 in the first round).
Rain is in the forecast for both Friday and Saturday in Louisville, and softened conditions could help DeChambeau’s approach game, which lags behind the advantage he’s expected to have off the tee with his distance.
DeChambeau also has a knack for winning on courses with bentgrass putting surfaces, which is the grass featured on Valhalla’s green complexes.
Odds: FanDuel (+2800), DraftKings (+2800), BetMGM (+2500).
Justin Thomas to miss the cut
It’s been feast or famine of late for Justin Thomas, the Louisville native who graduated from St. Xavier High School and won the 2017 and 2022 editions of the PGA Championship.
Thomas had a strong start to the 2024 PGA Tour season with a pair of top-10 finishes in The American Express and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, along with a tie for 12th at the WM Phoenix Open. He then missed three cuts in a span of five starts, including at both the Players Championship and the Masters.
Recent weeks have seen Thomas get his act together: He scored a top-five finish at the RBC Heritage in April and finished in a tie for 21st last week at the Wells Fargo Championship.
But the stats still don’t bode well for the 31-year-old as he arrives at Valhalla.
Thomas remains a disaster putting the ball (150th in strokes gained putting on the PGA Tour this season) and hasn’t found enough fairways to inspire confidence (112th in driving accuracy) on a course that has narrow fairways hugged by lengthy rough.
Other signs that Thomas is likely to struggle this week in his hometown?
He’s 130th in greens in regulation percentage on the PGA Tour (Valhalla’s greens are on the smaller side) and a woeful 154th in approach shots from greater than 200 yards out (not a good sign for a course that will play long).
On average, Thomas is leaving his approach shots 39 feet away from the hole, which isn’t a great statistic for a player with known putting woes as he preps to play a course that will have fast greens this week (at least until the rain arrives).
Thomas’ season has been a story of ups and downs, and enough signs point to this week being a regression moment despite his homecoming.
The PGA Championship uses a 70-player cut line (plus ties).
Odds: FanDuel (+245), Bet365 (+175), BetMGM (+220).
Akshay Bhatia to finish as top lefty
Thomas might not provide a sentimental hometown moment in Louisville, but another golfer connected to Valhalla could do so.
Akshay Bhatia is a 22-year-old young star on the PGA Tour. He’s already amassed six professional victories, including two PGA wins.
The roots for Bhatia’s future successes were established, in part, at Valhalla, where he won the 2018 Junior PGA Championship with a walk-off chip shot.
Bhatia’s current form is also plenty good enough to suggest he’s on the cusp of more success at Valhalla this week, where he will be making his PGA Championship debut.
He recorded top-15 finishes in three of his first four events on the PGA Tour this season before missing three straight cuts. Since late March though, Bhatia has been in sizzling form, rattling off the following results:
▪ T-17 at the Valspar Championship.
▪ T-11 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
▪ T-1 at the Valero Texas Open (won in a playoff).
▪ T-35 at The Masters.
▪ T-18 at the RBC Heritage.
▪ 42nd at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Bhatia is stacked up against only three other players in the Top Lefty category (which left-handed player will finish the best): reigning British Open winner Brian Harman, Scotland’s Robert MacIntyre and 53-year-old Phil Mickelson.
Bhatia is seventh on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained this season, 27th in driving accuracy and inside the top-50 in approach shots from further than 200 yards.
Odds: DraftKings (+165).
PGA Championship to end in a playoff
The three past editions of the PGA Championship at Valhalla have all gone down to the wire, with two of those ending with a playoff.
In 1996, Mark Brooks defeated Kentucky native Kenny Perry on the first hole of a sudden-death playoff after each man finished 72 holes at 11-under par.
In 2000, Tiger Woods topped Bob May in a three-hole playoff after both men finished 72 holes at 18-under par, which at the time set a new record for PGA Championship winning score (relative to par).
Most recently in 2014, Rory McIlroy (-16) topped runner-up Phil Mickelson (-15) by a single shot. Rickie Fowler and Henrik Stenson tied for third (-14), and all four players found themselves in or around the lead down the stretch.
Valhalla tends to produce close finishes, and more often than not, that’s meant extra holes to decide the winner of the Wanamaker Trophy.
Odds: DraftKings (+350).
