Predictions, stats and rankings for Kentucky’s 2022 high school football playoff semis
Kentucky high school football’s final four matchups have arrived. Friday night, 12 teams will punch their tickets to Kroger Field for a shot at a state championship.
Some of the state’s six football class brackets have held true to the rankings. Others, most notably the big-school Class 6A tournament, have had some upsets.
Here’s a look at all of this week’s matchups with scoring offense and defense averages, top players’ stats, pedigrees and predictions. All numerical rankings are the Kentucky High School Athletic Association’s RPI Standings which were frozen after the final week of the regular season and used to seed last week’s regionals and this week’s final fours. All games are Friday and all times are local to the home team.
Class 6A
No. 6 Bullitt East (12-1) at No. 5 Bryan Station (10-3), 7 p.m.
Chargers: (38.9 points per game/14.5 points allowed per game) — QB Travis Egan (2,302 yards, 27 TDs passing; 770 yards, 16 TDs rushing); RB Mason Gauthier (1,205 yards, 11 TDs rushing); WR Nolan Davenport (851 yards, 9 TDs receiving).
Defenders: (34.7 ppg/15.7 papg) — QB Trenton Cutwright (1,804 yards, 16 TDs passing; 549 yards, 7 TDs rushing); RB Jeremiah Mundy-Lloyd (1,018 yards, 17 TDs rushing); WR Damin Green (724 yards, 4 TDs receiving); LB Nikalos Dixon (82 tackles, 1 sack). DB Ryan Still (63 tackles).
Pedigrees: Bullitt East — Two finals appearances (1994, 2008); Bryan Station — One state title (1971) in three finals appearances (1969, 1999).
Note: Chargers QB Travis Egan is the grandson of longtime Bullitt East coach Mike Egan and recently surpassed the school’s passing yardage record held by his father, Brandon Egan.
@HLpreps pick: Bryan Station.
No. 7 Male (9-4) at No. 3 Ballard (11-2), 7 p.m.
Bulldogs: (27 ppg/13.3 papg) — QB Lucas Cobler (1,123 yards, 13 TDs passing; 651 yards, 5 TDs rushing); RB Daniel Swinney (966 yards, 9 TDs rushing); WR Antonio Harris (650 yards, 9 TDs receiving); LB DeAnre Malone (87 tackles, 4 sacks).
Bruins: (29.9 ppg/9.5 papg) —QB Tristian Hawkins (1,378 yards, 13 TDs passing; 391 yards, 5 TDs rushing); RB Journey Wyche (898 yards, 9 TDs rushing); WR Kameron Horton (307 yards, 3 TDs receiving); LB Gavin Willis (170 tackles, 6 sacks).
Pedigrees: Male — Eight state championships (the last in 2018) in 14 finals appearances; Ballard — One finals appearance (1984).
Note: Ballard beat Male 12-7 on Aug. 26.
@HLpreps pick: Male.
Class 5A
No. 9 Owensboro (11-2) at No. 1 Frederick Douglass (13-0), 6 p.m.
Red Devils: (41.8 ppg/11.4 papg) — QB Kasey Boone (1,520 yards, 15 TDs passing); RB/DB Kenyata Carbon (1,420 yards, 24 TDs rushing); WR Khalil Rogers (438 yards, 7 TDs receiving); LB Jeremiah Goodwin (52 tackles, 11 sacks).
Broncos: (43.8 ppg/4.7 papg) — QB Cole Carpenter (1,615 yards, 20 TDs passing); RB TJ Horton (641 yards, 14 TDs rushing); WR Tylon Webb) 533 yards, 5 TDs receiving); WR Cameron Dunn (498 yards, 8 TDs) receiving; LB Darion Neal (56 tackles, 1 sack).
Pedigrees: Owensboro — Two state titles (1974, 1986) in six finals appearances (the last in 2020); Douglass — Two finals appearances (2019, 2021).
Note: This is the third straight year Douglass and Owensboro have met in the state semis. The Broncos are 2-1.
@HLpreps pick: Frederick Douglass.
No. 5 Bowling Green (11-2) at No. 3 Southwestern (13-0), 7 p.m.
Purples: (34 ppg/15.2 papg) — QB Deuce Bailey (2,764 yards, 29 TDs passing; 331 yards, 3 TDs rushing); RB Javen Huddleston (1,014 yards, 14 TDs rushing); WR Easton Barlow (894 yards, 11 TDs receiving); LB Jake Napier (113 tackles, 1 sack).
Warriors: (37.3 ppg/11.8 papg) — RB Tanner Wright (1,562 yards, 25 TDs rushing); RB Christian Walden (1,128 yards, 15 TDs rushing); QB Roger Oliver (741 yards, 7 TDs passing); WR Mason Hibbard (584 yards, 9 TDs receiving); LB Maddox Mink (118 tackles 7 sacks).
Pedigrees: Bowling Green — 7 state titles (the last in 2020) in 11 finals appearances; Southwestern — No finals appearances.
Note: Southwestern is the No. 1 rushing team in 5A at 296 yards per game; Bowling Green is the No. 3 passing offense in 5A at 213 yards per game.
@HLpreps pick: Bowling Green.
Class 4A
No. 14 Franklin County (8-5) at No. 1 Corbin (13-0), 7:30 p.m.
Flyers: (33.6 ppg/18.9 papg) — RB Christian Moore (728 yards, 13 TDs rushing); RB Kaden Moorman (685 yards, 11 TDs rushing); WR Gilead Galloway (543 yards, 4 TDs receiving); LB Jon Griffin (71 tackles, 8.5 sacks).
Redhounds: (41.9 ppg/10.5 papg) — QB Kade Elam (2,093 yards, 27 TDs passing; 447 yards, 12 TDs rushing); RB Cameron Combs (1,177 yards, 16 TDs rushing); Carter Stewart (951 yards, 9 TDs receiving); DL Israel Summers (72 tackles, 8 sacks).
Pedigrees: Franklin County — One finals appearance (2020); Corbin — Three state titles (1976, 1980, 1982) in nine finals appearances (the last in 2018).
Note: Corbin beat Franklin County 40-20 on Sept. 2.
@HLpreps pick: Corbin.
No. 13 Central (9-4) at No. 2 Boyle County (11-2), 7 p.m.
Yellow Jackets: (25.2 ppg/13.2 papg) — RB Cortez Stone (2,123 yards, 25 TDs), QB Xavier Brown (781 yards, 8 TDs passing, 306 yards, 5 TDs rushing); WR Amontez Woolfolk (376 yards, 5 TDs receiving); S Andre Jackson (74 tackles).
Rebels: (39.6 ppg/14.8 papg) — QB Sage Dawson (1,527 yards, 21 TDs passing; 448 yards, 5 TDs rushing); RB Avery Bodner (835 yards, 12 TDs rushing); ATH Montavin Quisenberry (880 yards, 9 TDs rushing; 734 yards, 12 TDs receiving, 2 punt return TDs; 3 kick return TDs); DE Tommy Zeismer (69 tackles, 7 sacks).
Pedigrees: Central — Six state titles (the last in 2018) in eight finals appearances; Boyle County — 10 state titles, (two-time defending 4A champs) in 12 finals appearances
Note: The Rebels and Yellow Jackets have met in the playoffs six times since 2001. Boyle County is 4-2 in those games.
@HLpreps pick: Boyle County.
Class 3A
No. 9 Ashland Blazer (9-4) at No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville (13-0), 7:30 p.m.
Tomcats: (28.7 ppg/23 papg) — QB LaBryant Strader (2,029 yards, 18 TDs passing, 623 yards, 6 TDs rushing); RB Braxton Jennings (1,158 yards, 18 TDs rushing); WR Brandon Houston (840 yards, 9 TDs receiving) LB Sawyer Edens (106 tackles).
Centurions: (49.2 ppg/7.8 papg) — QB Cole Hodge (2,627 yards, 41 TDs passing, 606 yards, 8 TDs rushing); RB/LB Gavin Copenhaver (849 yards, 16 TDs rushing; 93 tackles; 3 sacks); WR Darwin Cotton (881 yards, 11 TD receiving); DL Gunnar McKinley (35 tackles, 10 sacks).
Pedigrees: Ashland Blazer — Three state titles (1967, 1990, 2020) in five finals appearances; CAL — Two state titles (2016, 2018) in two finals appearances.
Note: Though they have not faced each other for at least two decades, they both played Elizabethtown this year. Ashland beat E-town 27-25 on Oct. 1; CAL beat E-town 46-7 on Nov. 11.
@HLpreps pick: Christian Academy-Louisville.
No. 4 Mason County (13-0) at No. 2 Bardstown (13-0), 7:30 p.m.
Royals: (35.8 ppg/13.8 papg) — QB Keshaun Thomas (2,102 yards, 22 TDs passing; 330 yards, 11 TDs rushing); RB/LB Brady Sanders (916 yards, 11 TDs rushing; 77 tackles; 2 sacks); WR Terrell Henry (666 yards, 9 TDs receiving); WR Isaac Marshall (670 yards, 8 TDs receiving).
Tigers: (36.5 ppg/11.2 papg) — QB Brayden Clark (1,319 yards, 14 TDs passing; 253 yards, 7 TDs rushing); RB Tyleeq Williams (1,478 yards, 20 TDs rushing); WR Shannon Tonge (714 yards, 10 TDs receiving); LB Amonti Marshall (44 tackles, 7 sacks).
Pedigrees: Mason County — No finals appearances; Bardstown — Four state titles (the last in 2001) in seven finals appearances.
Note: This is the only semifinals battle of unbeatens among all six classes.
@HLpreps pick: Bardstown.
Class 2A
No. 7 Lexington Christian (9-4) at No. 3 Mayfield (13-0), 7 p.m.
Eagles: (36.2 ppg/23.9 papg) — QB Cutter Boley (3,665 yards, 34 TDs passing, 114 yards, 6 TDs rushing); RB J’Vontae Emerson (512 yards, 12 TDs rushing); WR Parker Chaney (1,128 yards, 7 TDs receiving); WR Evan Brown (886 yards, 7 TDs receiving); LB Major Brown (125 tackles).
Cardinals: (43 ppg/9 papg) — QB Zane Cartwright (1,801 yards, 21 TDs passing); RB Jutarious Starks (927 yards, 17 TDs rushing); WR Isaac Stevenson (773 yards, 8 TDs receiving); LB Ian Williams (88 tackles, 1 sack).
Pedigrees: Mayfield — 12 state titles (the last in 2015) in 24 finals appearances; LCA — One state title (2009) in four finals appearances.
Note: The Cardinals are not unbeatable at War Memorial Stadium, but they are 420-85-7 at home since moving there in 1949.
@HLpreps pick: Mayfield.
No. 9 Lloyd Memorial (10-3) at No. 1 Beechwood (12-1), 7:30 p.m.
Juggernauts: (33.9 ppg/16.4 papg) — RB Kaiden Zulager (1,422 yards, 20 TDs rushing); QB Isaiah Sebastian (703 yards, 7 TDs passing; 898 yards, 14 TDs rushing); WR Tyler Copeland (235 yards, 3 TDs receiving); DL Avander Abrams (55 tackles, 10 sacks).
Tigers: (42.2 ppg/8 papg) — QB Clay Hayden (1,503 yards, 17 TDs passing); RB Chase Flaherty (606 yards, 15 TDs rushing); WR Liam McCormack (598 yards, 5 TDs receiving); WR Antonio Robinson (501 yards, 7 TDs receiving).
Pedigrees: Lloyd Memorial — Two state titles (1965, 1976) in three finals appearances; Beechwood — 16 state titles (the last two back-to-back) in 21 finals appearances.
Note: Beechwood beat the district rival Juggernauts 34-7 on Oct. 14 and is 19-1 against them since 1998.
@HLpreps pick: Beechwood.
Class A
No. 9 Newport Central Catholic (11-2) at No. 1 Pikeville (10-2), 7 p.m.
Thoroughbreds: (33.8 ppg/15.5 papg) — QB Kolton Smith (1,260 yards, 14 TDs passing); RB Demetrick Welch (1,255 yards, 17 TDs rushing); WR Matthew Landrum (439 yards, 4 TDs passing); S Luke Runyon (107 tackles).
Panthers: (43.25 ppg/11.9 papg) — RB Blake Birchfield (1,627 yards, 29 TDs rushing); QB Isaac Duty (1,298 yards, 18 TDs passing); WR Wade Hensley (477 yards, 7 TDs passing); LB Carson Wright (114 tackles, 4 sacks).
Pedigrees: NCC — Five state titles (the last in 2012) in 11 finals appearances; Pikeville — Six state titles (defending champs) in 10 finals appearances.
Note: Newport Central Catholic has won two state titles in Class A, but its most recent success came in Class 2A when it made seven finals appearances in nine years.
@HLpreps pick: Pikeville.
No. 6 Louisville Holy Cross (10-3) at No. 2 Raceland (12-1), 7:30 p.m.
Cougars: (29.8 ppg/17.5 papg) — QB Chris Perry (1,496 yards, 12 TDs passing; 1,000 yards, 23 TDs rushing); RB/LB Tyler Ballard (876 yards, 8 TDs passing; 133 tackles, 8 sacks); WR Joey Foushee (456 yards, 4 TDs receiving); LB Michael Wortham (62 tackles, 7 sacks).
Rams: (43 ppg/10.9 papg) — QB Logan Lundy (2,071 yards, 32 TDs passing, 324 yards, 6 TDs rushing); RB Noah Wallace (726 yards, 10 TDs rushing); WR Mason Lykins (650 yards, 11 TDs receiving); LB Cameron Bell (65 tackles; 4.5 sacks).
Pedigrees: Holy Cross — No finals appearances; Raceland — One finals appearance (2017).
Note: These two have not met since records began being kept online by the KHSAA in 1998.
@HLpreps pick: Raceland.
About the picks
Each postseason, I make my best guess as to who might win in the playoffs based on what I’ve seen in person and on paper. As always, the picks are for fun. I’m completely happy being completely wrong about your team. Good luck to all.
Last week’s @HLpreps picks: 21-3.
Overall 2022 @HLpreps’ picks: 62-10.
Last year’s @HLpreps state semifinals picks: 9-3.
