Boys’ and girls’ Sweet 16 basketball pairings are set: Which regions have toughest path?
The region pairings are set for the boys’ and girls’ state basketball tournaments next month after the Kentucky High School Athletic Association held its Sweet 16 bracket drawings Wednesday.
Both tournaments will be held in Rupp Arena with the Mingua Beef Jerky Girls’ Sweet 16 tipping off Wednesday, March 8 and the UK Healthcare Boys’ Sweet 16 beginning the following week on March 15. Both the boys’ and girls’ tournaments will have their respective semifinals and finals all held on the Saturdays of their event weeks.
How will the pairings play out? Well, since the postseason hasn’t begun and we don’t even know who will win this year’s district titles, much less the regionals, that requires a bit of speculation. But let’s try …
Boys’ tournament scenarios
For the Boys’ Sweet 16, Central Kentucky’s 11th Region champion will play on Thursday, March 16 against the winner of the 15th Region on the second day of the first round.
The 11th includes Lexington Catholic, rated as the No. 1 team in the state, according to the latest Dave Cantrall Ratings. The Knights are ranked No. 2 behind Warren Central in the most recent media poll. The 11th also includes Cantrall No. 10 Madison Central, No. 13 Frederick Douglass and No. 18 Great Crossing.
The 15th Region includes its defending champion Pikeville, along with contenders Martin County, Shelby Valley, Pike County Central and Floyd Central. Pikeville has the highest Cantrall rating of that bunch, but none are ranked in the top 25.
At first glance, the matchups and potential matchups moving forward out of the Thursday bracket appear to be the toughest.
The winner of the 11th/15th Region game could face Louisville’s 7th Region champ in the quarterfinals if that team beats the 14th Region champion. The 7th is home to No. 2 Male, No. 8 Trinity, and No. 14 Ballard. The 14th Region is home to unranked Hazard and Perry County Central.
Also Thursday, the 2nd Region, which includes Lyon County and the state’s second-leading career scorer Travis Perry, will face the 9th Region champ, which could be No. 9 Covington Catholic, No. 15 Covington Holy Cross or No. 19 Conner. Holy Cross’s Jacob Meyer leads the state in scoring for the season and crossed 3,000 career points earlier this year.
The winner of that tilt will have to take on either the 10th or 13th region’s champion. The 10th is home to No. 5 George Rogers Clark, the defending state champs, and No. 24 Mason County. The 13th has its defending champion, No. 5 North Laurel and Kentucky signee Reed Sheppard, but could also have No. 17 South Laurel, No. 23 Corbin, Harlan County or Harlan as its standard bearer.
If the latest Cantrall ratings hold, the Boys’ Sweet 16 could see a final four of No. 1 Lexington Catholic from the 11th vs. No. 5 George Rogers Clark/North Laurel (they are tied in the ratings) and No. 2 Warren Central from the 4th vs. No. 4 North Oldham from the 8th.
The latest media rankings have the same final four, minus North Laurel, which is not in that poll’s top 10. Last season Clark was the No. 1 team and won it all. Only one other top-rated team in this scenario at the time of the draw made last season’s final four (Covington Catholic).
Girls’ tournament scenarios
Central Kentucky’s 11th Region champion will take on the winner of the 13th Region on Wednesday, March 8, first day of the girls’ tournament.
But the second day of the tourney has perhaps the toughest draw among both the boys’ and girls’ events: the 6th Region, home of No. 2 Mercy, will face the winner of the 9th Region, home of No. 5 Cooper. Cooper is the defending region champ and reached the Sweet 16 semifinals last season. Mercy is the last in-state team to defeat No. 1 Sacred Heart (Feb. 13, 2022).
For three years in a row and six of the last eight, the 11th Region champion has been Franklin County, the state’s No. 23-ranked team, according to the latest Cantrall ratings. The Flyers could face a stiff challenge this season, however, from No. 14 Frederick Douglass or No. 21 Madison Central. The 13th Region is home to No. 18 Corbin, its defending champ, and No. 24 North Laurel.
From there, it doesn’t get any easier for the 11th Region as it faces a potential matchup with either the 10th Region (where No. 7 George Rogers Clark is favored) or the 12th Region champion (where it could be No. 22 Pulaski County or defending champion Southwestern).
The first-day bracket also includes the 7th Region, home to No. 1 Sacred Heart, the back-to-back state champion who hasn’t lost to an in-state team for more than a year. The 7th Region champ drew the 15th Region for its first game. The 15th has been represented by No. 11 Pikeville for four years straight.
For the girls, the most recent Cantrall ratings forecast a final four of No. 1 Sacred Heart out of the 7th vs. No. 7 Clark out of the 10th, and No. 2 McCracken County out of the 1st vs. No. 2 Mercy (tie) out of the 6th. The latest media rankings favor Cooper at No. 3 over its No. 5, Mercy. Sacred Heart also was No. 1 at this time last year and went on to its second straight title. Only one other top-rated team in this same scenario at the time of the draw made last season’s final four (runner-up Bullitt East).
Girls’ Sweet 16
First-round games listed in bracket order.
Wednesday, March 8
▪ 3rd Region vs. 4th Region, 11 a.m.
▪ 7th Region vs. 15th Region, 1:30 p.m.
▪ 10th Region vs. 12th Region, 6 p.m.
▪ 11th Region vs. 13th Region, 8:30 p.m.
Thursday, March 9
▪ 14th Region vs. 16th Region, 11 a.m.
▪ 1st Region vs. 5th Region, 1:30 p.m.
▪ 6th Region vs. 9th Region, 6 p.m.
▪ 2nd Region vs. 8th Region, 8:30 p.m.
Friday, March 10
▪ 3rd/4th Region vs. 7th/15th Region, 11 a.m.
▪ 12th/10th Region vs. 11th/13th Region, 1:30 p.m.
▪ 14th/16th Region vs. 1st/5th Region, 6 p.m.
▪ 6th/9th Region vs. 2nd/8th Region, 8:30 p.m.
Saturday, March 11
▪ Semifinals at 11 a.m. and 1:30 p.m.
▪ Finals at 7 p.m.
Boys’ Sweet 16
First-round games listed in bracket order.
Wednesday, March 15
▪ 1st Region vs. 5th Region, 1:30 p.m.
▪ 6th Region vs. 8th Region, 11 a.m.
▪ 4th Region vs. 12th Region, 6 p.m.
▪ 3rd Region vs. 16th Region, 8:30 p.m.
Thursday, March 16
▪ 11th Region vs. 15th Region, 6 p.m.
▪ 7th Region vs. 14th Region, 11 a.m.
▪ 2nd Region vs. 9th Region, 1:30 p.m.
▪ 10th Region vs. 13th Region, 8:30 p.m.
Friday, March 17
▪ 1st/5th Region vs. 6th/8th Region, 11 a.m.
▪ 4th/12th Region vs. 3rd/16th Region, 1:30 p.m.
▪ 11th/15th Region vs. 7th/14th Region, 6 p.m.
▪ 2nd/9th Region vs. 10th/13th Region, 8:30 p.m.
Saturday, March 18
▪ Semifinals at 11 a.m. and 1:30 p.m.
▪ Finals at 7 p.m.
This story was originally published February 15, 2023 at 4:15 PM.
