Predictions for Ky. high school football’s state semis. Four Lexington teams still in it.
Four Lexington teams will vie for a spot in their respective Kentucky high school football state championships on Friday.
Three of them — Class 2A No. 4 Lexington Christian, Class 3A No. 17 Lexington Catholic and Class 6A No. 4 Frederick Douglass — face difficult tests against higher ranked and familiar foes on the road.
The other, Class A No. 2 Sayre, hosts its state semifinals matchup against No. 3 Campbellsville in the first-ever meeting between their schools.
The Spartans keep making history for a program that didn’t exist eight years ago. After topping three-time defending champion Pikeville for its first region trophy last Friday, a state finals trip to Kroger Field is within reach.
LCA goes to Beechwood in Fort Mitchell to renew a rivalry that has only been played in the playoffs with the season or a state title on the line. The Tigers are 4-1 against LCA over the last 20 years. The last three of those games (2007, 2020 and 2021) were all closely contested state championship heartbreakers for the Eagles.
This will be the first time LCA and Beechwood have met in a state semifinals.
“Beechwood is Beechwood,” LCA coach Doug Charles said of the 17-time state champions. LCA has one state title. “I think our staff always gives our kids a game plan they can win with. … Our goal has always been to get back to Kroger Field and exorcise some demons.”
For the second year in a row, Lexington Catholic travels to No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville, a place where the Knights lost 43-8 last season to a Centurions team that went on to defend its Class 3A state championship.
CAL’s Connor Hodge, an East Carolina commit who caught passes from his older brother Cole last year, has taken over quarterback duties this season and thrown for 3,241 yards and 34 TDs. Lexington Catholic brought back nine starters from last season who have seen what the Centurions can do.
“I think our kids got to see CAL was a very good football team,” LexCath coach Nick Baisch said. “Being from Louisville, I saw most of those kids play growing up and I knew how talented they were. They’ve been No. 1, and we knew the state championship was going to have to go through CAL. That’s what we’re doing.”
Like Lexington Catholic, Frederick Douglass also has to go to Louisville to face the defending state champion it lost to in the semifinals last year. Trinity topped the visiting Broncos 14-7 in overtime on the way to its 28th big-school state title.
If Douglass is to get the victory this time around, it will have to avoid the kind of mistakes it made in a 23-13 regular season loss to the Shamrocks at The Farm on Aug. 30.
Douglass committed two turnovers and had two horrifically shanked punts that gave the Shamrocks the ball inside the Broncos’ own 20-yard line for each of the Rocks’ four scoring drives.
But the Broncos’ defense played exceptionally well when not pinned up against their own end zone and kept Douglass in the game until its final moments.
Here’s a look at all of this week’s matchups with scoring offense and defense averages, notes, predictions and where to stream it if you can’t make the game. Some streams carry a fee. Some are audio only.
All rankings are from the Kentucky High School Athletic Association’s RPI Standings which were frozen after the final week of the regular season and used to seed this week’s final fours.
All games are Friday and all times are local to the home team. My picks are denoted by an asterisk (*). Last week’s @HLpreps predictions: 10-6.
CLASS 6A
No. 4 Frederick Douglass (9-4) at No. 3 Trinity (Louisville)* (11-2), 7:30 p.m.
Scoring averages—Broncos: offense-31.7/defense-16.5; Shamrocks: O-30/D-10.
Notes: Douglass has a running back rotation that’s piled up 2,976 yards and 34 touchdowns, led by sophomore Dakari Talbert’s 780 yards and 11 TDs. Senior wideout Aveion Chenault is having his best season (654 yards, 15 TDs). The Rocks’ offense features running backs Christopher Wilson (716 yard, 8 TDs) and Jamaurion Berry (685 yards, 10 TDs) and wideout Jeremiah Lynn (507 yards, 5 TDs receiving).
Streaming: Glicod.com, WDRB+ app, WGTK-AM 970.
No. 9 Great Crossing (10-3) at No. 2 Ryle* (11-2), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Warhawks: O-40/D-24.9; Raiders: O-34.8/D-15.8.
Notes: The Warhawks have yet to beat Ryle in the two years they have been District 6 rivals and fell to the Raiders 36-8 on Oct. 18. Great Crossing running back Luke Ballard (1,538 yards, 21 TDs rushing) had just 23 yards in that game. Ryle is led by dual-threat QB Nathan Verax (1,922 yards, 26 TDs passing, 514 yards 6 TDs rushing).
Streaming: Team1sports.com.
State finals forecast: No. 3 Trinity Louisville vs. No. 2 Ryle.
CLASS 5A
No. 7 Highlands* (10-2) at No. 1 Cooper (13-0), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Bluebirds: O-39.8/D-13; Jaguars: O-44.8/D-14.8.
Notes: The Bluebirds and Jaguars are District 6 rivals meeting for the second year in a row in the semifinals. Cooper won 17-15 in last season’s semis and 24-21 on Sept. 28. Highlands features junior QB Rio Litmer (2,528 yards, 31 TDs passing) who has two top targets in Adam Surrey and Jackson Arnold (more than 1,700 yards receiving, 19 TDs combined). Cooper counters with QB Cam O’Hara (3,070 yards, 45 TDs passing) and running back Keagan Maher (1,433 yards, 22 TDs rushing), both juniors, and senior wideout Isaiah Johnson (1,089 yards, 22 TDs receiving).
Streaming: 859SportsRadio.com.
No. 5 Bowling Green* (11-2) at No. 2 South Warren (12-1), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Purples: O-38/D-14.8; Spartans: O-37.9/D-13.
Notes: This district rivalry has played out in both the regular season and the playoffs five times since South Warren opened its doors in 2010. The Purples have swept two of those to the Spartans’ one. The regular season winner has lost the playoff rematch twice. Both teams have won such a revenge game. This year, South Warren topped the defending 5A champions 28-24 on Oct. 18.
Streaming: facebook.com/D93Rocks, WDNS-FM 93.3, Sporting Times at stfanclub.com
State finals forecast: No. 5 Bowling Green vs. No. 7 Highlands.
CLASS 4A
No. 7 Covington Catholic (11-2) at No. 2 Franklin County* (12-0), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Colonels: O-39.8/D-16.2; Flyers: O-41.8/D10.2.
Notes: CovCath knocked off four-time defending champion Boyle County last week with a powerful offense led by QB Cash Harney (1,193 yards, 13 TDs passing, 1,312 yards, 18 TDs rushing) and running back Dylan Gaiser (1,307 yards, 15 TDs), both juniors. Franklin County freshman QB Knox Barrett (1,115 yards, 16 TDs passing) has a running back stable that has accumulated 2,485 yards and 39 TDs. Wideouts Delano Collins and Elesius Robinson have combined for five punt return TDs.
Streaming: Frankfort Plant Board Channel 10 on YouTube.com.
No. 4 Corbin (12-1) at No. 3 Paducah Tilghman* (12-0), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Redhounds: O-42.9/D-15.8; Blue Tornado: O-50.7/D-8.8.
Notes: Corbin and Tilghman are 318 miles apart, making for a nearly five-hour, one-way trip for the Redhounds. Each have made a state finals appearance with their current QBs under center. Corbin’s Kade Elam, a Louisville baseball signee, has thrown for 3,288 yards and 40 TDs this season and rushed for another 14 scores. Tilghman’s Jack James, a Troy State commit, already owns the state record for career passing TDs at 179 and counting. He’s 21 completions, three attempts and 186 yards from breaking KHSAA career records in those categories.
Streaming: (PT Athletics on YouTube.com).
State finals forecast: No. 2 Franklin County vs. No. 3 Paducah Tilghman.
CLASS 3A
No. 17 Lexington Catholic (7-6) at No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville* (10-3), 7:30 p.m.
Scoring averages—Knights: O-30.9/D-23.7; Centurions: O-38.4/D-15.5.
Notes: LexCath junior Brady Wasik leads the Knights in tackles (86) and has picked up QB duties the last two weeks as senior Matthew Kern deals with an injury. He’s thrown for 300 yards and three TDs. CAL quarterback Connor Hodge has thrown TD passes to 11 different receivers, led by Darwin Cotton (1,272 yards, 19 TDs receiving).
Streaming: WDRB+ app.
No. 7 Belfry* (11-2) at No. 5 Union County (11-2), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Pirates: O-40/D-20.5; Braves: O-36.9/D-15.6.
Notes: These schools haven’t met in the KHSAA’s online era, probably because they’re 387 miles apart, a whopping six-hour, 21-minute drive if you don’t stop. Jeremiah Austin leads Belfry’s option run attack (1,569 yards, 16 TDs) with JB Woolum (852 yards, 16 TDs) getting handoffs, too. Jarren Johnson is Union’s primary threat (2,287 yards, 39 TDs rushing). The Braves have never been to a state finals. Belfry has won eight state titles in 15 appearances.
Streaming: WXCC-FM 96.5, WMSK Facebook
State finals forecast: No. 7 Belfry vs. No. 1 Christian Academy-Louisville.
CLASS 2A
No. 10 Somerset (10-4) at No. 1 Owensboro Catholic* (13-0), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Briar Jumpers: O-29/D-15.2; Aces: O-47.3/D-9.5.
Notes: In another rematch of a state semifinal from last year, Somerset faces the daunting task of trying to slow down an Owenboro Catholic team led by Western Kentucky baseball commit Brady Atwell (3,103 yards, 44 TDs passing, 518 yards, 17 TDs rushing). Atwell went for 476 yards and five TDs passing in a 44-15 win over the Briar Jumpers last season. Somerset features running back Kris Hughes (1,531 yards, 22 TDs rushing).
Streaming: LakeCumberlandSports.com, Owensboro Catholic Sports Mixlr.
No. 4 Lexington Christian* (11-2) at No. 3 Beechwood (12-1), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Eagles: O-42.2/D-16.8; Tigers: O-47/D-13.9.
Notes: Saxton Howard (1,308 yards, 14 TDs passing, 895 yards, 19 TDs rushing) has been a revelation at QB for LCA who also has Leland Edwards (1,277 yards, 19 TDs) at running back. Beechwood throws it a bit more with QB Clay Hayden (2,545 yards, 44 TDs passing) and can still pound it with running back Chase Flaherty (1,335 yards, 24 TDs rushing).
Streaming: WJMM-FM 99.1, Beechwood Sports Radio Network.
State finals forecast: No. 4 Lexington Christian vs. No. 1 Owensboro Catholic.
CLASS A
No. 4 Raceland* (9-4) at No. 1 Kentucky Country Day (10-2), 7:30 p.m.
Scoring averages—Rams: O-32.3/D-13.3; Bearcats: O-24.9/D-15.5.
Notes: Raceland smoked KCD 42-5 in last year’s semifinals in Louisville and remains a load despite having a new crop of playmakers who include QB Jacob Waller (1,327 yards, 11 TDs passing) and a ground game that has 2,459 yards and 45 TDs spread among 14 different rushers. KCD is led by junior running back Parker Rudolph (1,047 yards, 14 TDs rushing).
Streaming: KoolHits1057.com, Glicod.com.
No. 3 Campbellsville (11-2) at No. 2 Sayre* (13-0), 7 p.m.
Scoring averages—Eagles: O-36.5/D-10.5; Spartans: O-45/D-5.
Notes: The Spartans feature the state’s stingiest defense and its fifth-best offense regardless of class. Sayre QB Luke Pennington (2,583 yards, 47 TDs passing) most often finds Brock Coffman (1,383 yards, 24 TDs receiving). Campbellsville counters with true dual-threat quarterback Kace Eastridge (1,860 yards, 16 TDs passing, 1,279 yards, 20 TDs rushing) and running back Cross Watson (952 yards, 15 TDs rushing).
Streaming: (Sayre at hudl.com) (Hank the Legend 105.5 FM).
State finals forecast: No. 4 Raceland vs. No. 2 Sayre.
This story was originally published November 27, 2024 at 7:00 AM.
