New rankings system sizes up Kentucky boys and girls high school soccer
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- The Rundell Rankings reintroduce data-driven ratings to Kentucky high school soccer.
- The system uses Elo ratings and team data to reflect current in-state performance.
- Discrepancies with RPI highlight gaps in how out-of-state games impact rankings.
It’s been two seasons since Kentucky high school soccer has had what felt like a legitimate math-based rankings system for its boys and girls teams.
This season, the Rundell Rankings, a collaboration between West Jessamine boys assistant soccer coach Michael Rundell and friend and computer programmer Joseph Thacker, aimed to fill that void.
The results, so far, have been impressive.
“Being a coach in the state for a few years now, I remember how other coaches respected the Maher Rankings as the most accurate reflection of a team’s standing,” Rundell told the Herald-Leader earlier this month. “When Maher was no longer able to continue offering his site, I thought I might have the skills and connections to start something similar, as a coach, fan and science teacher.”
The Maher Rankings, which for many years ranked every boys and girls high school team in Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio, went dormant without explanation on its Facebook page at the end of the 2023 season.
While Kentucky girls soccer could turn to its coaches association’s polls in the interim, the boys game only had the sometimes-inexplicable MaxPreps rankings or worse, the Kentucky High School Athletic Association’s woeful RPI Standings, which has a formula that punishes any team who plays out-of-state competition. That out-of-state factor is less of a problem for football, where the RPI Standings are actually used to seed the latter half of the postseason. For all other sports, the RPI is not used for competitive purposes.
While rankings are in the eye of the beholder, the Rundell Rankings’ positioning of defending state champion Henry Clay at No. 1 as of Tuesday does not seem out of place given the Blue Devils’ wins over No. 8 Lafayette, No. 11 Woodford County and No. 18 Bryan Station along with a tie against No. 6 Paul Laurence Dunbar.
In contrast, MaxPreps ranks the Blue Devils at No. 6, while the KHSAA RPI has them at No. 11. That’s due to the KHSAA RPI formula giving a generic RPI rating of 0.53 (meaning that the opponent averages nearly as many losses as wins) to any out-of-state opponent.
Henry Clay’s two losses are to New Albany, Ohio, and Evansville (Indiana) Memorial, each among the best teams in its respective state.
The Rundell Rankings don’t factor out-of-state opponents into its rating system but reflect them in the team records. “This ensures that the rankings accurately reflect performance within Kentucky high school soccer while still maintaining a complete record of all games played,” according to the rankings’ website.
MaxPreps ranks St. Xavier as its No. 1 team. The Tigers are No. 8 in the RPI standings (with seven out-of-state opponents factored in). Bowling Green ranked No. 1 as of Tuesday in the RPI. It’s No. 5 in the Rundell and No. 3 on MaxPreps. Bowling Green hasn’t played any out-of-state opponents.
Rundell and Thacker based their rankings on the Elo rating system originated for chess and assigned every team an equal Elo value of 1300 before factoring results from each of the past two seasons. They then adjusted the rankings in preseason based on the number of returning varsity players each team had.
As this season’s results pile into the Rundell system, each team’s Elo rating changes in accordance to a number of factors, including how highly rated the teams playing each other are, whether the game was an upset based on its rankings and how close the game was. Postseason games will weigh more.
“I’ve been thrilled with it so far and look forward to seeing how the season plays out and how the ranking equation responds to the upcoming postseason,” Rundell said.
When girls No. 18 Paul Laurence Dunbar beat No. 2 Lexington Catholic on Sept. 17, the Bulldogs jumped nine spots on the Rundell chart.
There are only a few variations between the Rundell girls rankings and the latest Kentucky High School Girls Soccer Coaches Association Poll. The biggest difference to note is Rundell No. 6 Bowling Green being unranked by the KHSGSCA.
Lafayette coach Chris Grimm said he looked over Rundell earlier this season and said, at a glance, it looked OK by him. His Generals are in the top 10.
“It’s something for people to talk about,” Grimm said. “For us, when it goes in your favor, you try to temper the expectations a little bit and be like, ‘Oh, we’re not as good as what the ranking said.’ But when it’s against you, you say ‘Hey, look how much disrespect we’re getting!’ You can use it as a coach on both sides.”
The postseasons will determine the real No. 1s over the next few weeks. And Tuesday’s scheduled boys game featuring No. 1 Henry Clay at No. 2 St. Xavier might settle at least one argument until then.
