Picks and previews: Kroger Field awaits as 24 teams square off in football semis.
A journey that began for 221 teams when practice opened on July 15 reaches the penultimate step for 24 of them on Friday.
The 2019 UK Orthopaedics/KHSAA Commonwealth Gridiron Bowl Semi State field includes traditional powers like Trinity, Beechwood, Mayfield and Covington Catholic, plus newcomers such as Kentucky Country Day, Frederick Douglass, Madisonville and Taylor County.
Who will make the trip to Kroger Field next week for their respective state championship games?
The first semifinals begin kicking off at 6 p.m. Friday around the state and the best game of them all could be in Lexington where the stifling defenses of Owensboro and Frederick Douglass will square off in Class 5A.
Here’s a look at the matchups with predictions, a few of which are bound to be correct. All rankings are the KHSAA’s RPI rankings from the final week of the regular season, which were used to seed this round.
Class A
No. 4 Paintsville (10-3) at No. 1 Kentucky Country Day (13-0), 7:30 p.m.
Paintsville: QB Jake Hyden — 1,561 yards/15 TDs passing, 469 yards/seven TDs rushing; WR/RB John Walker Phelps — 808 yards/13 TDs rushing, 336 yards/three TDs receiving; WR Karsten Poe — 630 yards/nine TDs.
KCD: RB Dorian Heard — 1,854 yards/30 TDs; QB Luke Russo — 1,039 yards/15 TDs passing.; WR Nick Smith — 749 yards/10 TDs. Note: KCD has benefited from 24 fumble recoveries
Pedigree: Paintsville — two state finals (last in 1985). KCD — no state finals.
Points For/Points Against average: Paintsville — 32/16; KCD — 42/14.
@HLpreps pick: KCD 28, Paintsville 24.
No. 3 Louisville Holy Cross (11-2) at No. 1 Pikeville (12-0), 7:30 p.m.
Holy Cross: QB Chaz Geraghty — 1,182 yards/10 TDs passing and 890 rushing yards/11 TDs rushing; RB Luke Davis — 1,508/23 TDs rushing; WR Graham Carnes 586 yards/four TDs.
Pikeville: QB Isaac McNamee — 1,954 yards/25 TDs; RB Cody Raines — 933 yards/13 TDs. WR Hensley Jackson — 620 yards receiving/nine TDs and has scored via kickoff and punt returns and a fumble recovery TD.
Pedigree: Holy Cross — no state finals; Pikeville — four state titles (last in 2015).
PF/PA average: Holy Cross — 32/16; Pikeville — 37/12.
Pick: Pikeville 35, Holy Cross 21.
Class 2A
No. 7 Beechwood (8-5) at No. 2 Mayfield (12-1), 6:30 p.m. (CST)
Beechwood: QB Cameron Hergott — 1,976 yards/14 TDs passing, 718 yards/12 TDs rushing; RBs Avery Courtney and Cole Stammer have six TDs each and nearly 1,000 yards combined.
Mayfield: QB Jayden Stinson — 3,318 yards/46 TDs passing; RB Kylan Galbreath — 1,323 yards/15 TDs rushing; WR Kade Neely — 1,088 yards/18 TDs.
Pedigree: Beechwood — 14 state titles (2018, Class A); Mayfield — 12 state titles (2015).
PF/PA average: Beechwood — 29/15; Mayfield — 47/18.
Pick: Mayfield 42, Beechwood 28.
No. 5 Breathitt County (13-0) at No. 3 Somerset (12-1), 7:30 p.m.
Breathitt County: RB Charles “C.A.” Collins — 1,694 yards/34 TDs; QB Braxton O’Hara — 571 yards/nine TDs passing, 417 yards/13 TDs rushing; QB Jaylen Turner — 802 yards/nine TDs passing, 359 yards/10 TDs rushing; WR Brandyn Slaughter — 627 yards/seven TDs.
Somerset: QB Kaiya Sheron — 2,834 yards/24 TDs passing, 798 yards/eight TDs rushing; RB Cam Austin — 436 yards/seven TDs; WR Kade Grundy — 1,245 yards/13 TDs.
Pedigree: Breathitt County has won three state titles in four trips, the last coming in 2002. Somerset has been to five state finals, the last time in 2009.
PF/PA average: Breathitt County — 51/11; Somerset — 41/15.
Pick: Somerset 28, Breathitt County 18.
CLASS 3A
No. 14 Taylor County (11-2) at No. 1 Bell County (13-0), 7:30 p.m.
Taylor County: RB Wes Oliver — 2,093 yards/27 TDs; RB Tre Goodin — 1,196 yards/14 TDs; QB Ethan Coghill — 736 yards/six TDs passing.
Bell County: QB London Stephney — 1,392 yards/18 TDs passing, 954 yards/14 TDs rushing; RB Brandon Baker — 1,304 yards/16 TDs; WR Jason Jones — 831 yards/12 TDs.
Pedigree: Taylor County has never been to a state finals; Bell County has won two titles, the last coming in Class 4A in 2008.
PF/PA average: Taylor County — 34/18 ; Bell County — 44/10
Pick: Bell County 33, Taylor County 7.
No. 7 Belfry (9-3) at No. 5 DeSales (10-3), 7:30 p.m.
Belfry: RB Peyton Hensley — 1,077 yards/13 TDs; RB Ben Bentley — 929 yards/13 TDs; RB Isaac Dixon — 744 yards/nine TDs, 109 yards/two TDs receiving.
DeSales: RB James Johnson — 1,361 rushing yards/18 TDs; QB DeMarcus Avery — 739 yards/nine TDs passing, 432 yards/eight TDs rushing; QB Jayden Scroggins — 660 yards/12 TDs passing. Defense totals state high 69.5 sacks lead by Demetri Scott’s (24), DeJuan Watkins (15.5) and Mekhi Lewis (13).
Pedigree: Belfry has six state titles, the last coming in 2016; DeSales has two state titles, both in Class 2A in 2013 and 2014.
PF/PA average: Belfry — 38/14; Belfry — 35/16.
Pick: DeSales 30, Belfry 10.
CLASS 4A
No. 12 Central (8-5) at No. 1 Boyle County (13-0), 7:30 p.m.
Central: RB Dayshawn Mucker — 1,634 yards/16 TDs; QB Duncan Vernon — 542 yards/five TDs passing; WR Deondre Howard — 564 yards/six TDs and has seven of team’s 18 interceptions.
Boyle County: WR Reese Smith — 1,251 yards/18 TDs receiving, 121 yards/three TDs rushing; QB Reed Lanter — 2,790 yards/37 TDs; RBs Will McDaniel, Andrew Sacco and Landen Bartleson have combined for more than 1,600 yards and 36 TDs.
Pedigree: Central has won six titles, the last coming last year in Class 3A; Boyle County has won eight titles, the last coming in 2017 in Class 3A.
PF/PA average: Central — 22/10; Boyle — 52/9.
Pick: Boyle County 56, Central 14.
No. 7 Madisonville (11-2) at No. 2 Johnson Central (13-0), 6 p.m.
Madisonville: RB Jeriah Hightower — 2,817 yards/33 TDs; QB Hayden Reynols — 1,948 yards/26 TDs; WR Deljuan Johnson — 819 yards/14 TDs; WR Marquis Parker — 607 yards/nine TDs.
Johnson Central: QB Riley Preece — 1,133 yards/17 TDs passing, 604 yards/13 TDs rushing; RB Devin Johnson — 1,339 yards/18 TDs; RBs Cody Rice and Bryce Tackett 1,000 yards/19 scores combined. WR Seth Dalton — 616 yards/10 TDs.
Pedigree: Madisonville has been to two finals (1970, 1971); Johnson Central is trying for its fifth straight finals appearance. It won in 2016.
PF/PA average: Madisonville — 39/20; Johnson Central — 46/9.
Pick: Johnson Central 44, Madisonville 28.
CLASS 5A
No. 13 Bowling Green (9-3) at No. 1 Covington Catholic (13-0), 6 p.m.
Bowling Green: RB Javeius Bunton — 738 yards/10 TDs rushing, 249 yards/two TDs receiving. QB Conner Cooper — 1,314 yards/15 TDs passing. Dezmond Wilson, Jordan Dingle and Elvin FoFanah have combined for nearly 1,200 yards receiving and 15 TDs.
Covington Catholic: TE/LB Michael Mayer — 807 yards/14 TDs receiving, 82 tackles/1.5 sacks; QB Caleb Jacob — 2,483 yards/30 TDs passing; RB Daniel Felix — 683 yards/14 TDs.
Pedigree: Bowling Green has won six state titles, the last coming in 2016; CovCath has won seven state titles, the last coming in 2017.
PF/PA average: Bowling Green — 33/13; CovCath — 40/7.
Pick: Covington Catholic 49, Bowling Green 42.
No. 4 Owensboro (12-1) at No. 2 Frederick Douglass (13-0), 6 p.m.
Owensboro: QB Gavin Wimsatt — 2,560 yards/29 TDs passing, 545 yards/12 TDs rushing; RB Ethan Avery — 666 yards/19 TDs; WRs Treyvon Tinsley 850 yards/11 TDs; Tyren Hayden 695 yards/10 TDs; Defense Kobe Skortz — 11.5 sacks, Yovani Sales — 10.5 sacks.
Douglass: QB Josh McClurg — 1,356 yards/17 TDs passing, 979 yards/10 TDs receiving; RB Darius Neal — 824 yards/13 TDs; WR Dane Key — 502 yards/seven TDs, four punt return TDs.
Pedigree: Owensboro — two titles (1986); Douglass — no finals appearances.
PF/PA average: Owensboro — 39/6; Douglass — 44/5.
Pick: Douglass 24, Owensboro 21.
CLASS 6A
No. 10 Tates Creek (9-4) at No. 1 Male (13-0), 7 p.m.
Tates Creek: QB Luke Duby — 4,371 yards/44 TDs passing, 465 yards/two TDs rushing; RB Marcus Bosley — 364 yards/seven TDs rushing; WRs Miles Thomas — 1,727 yards/22 TDs, Elliott Bryant — 774 yards/nine TDs.
Male: QB Elijah Parish — 2.257 yards/25 TDs; RBs Jaylin Bross 1,417 yards/18 TDs, Quantrell Wright — 963 yards/12 TDs; WR Izayah Cummings — 962 yards/11 TDs.
Pedigree: Tates Creek — three finals appearances, title (1972); Male — eight titles (2018).
PF/PA average: Tates Creek — 34/25; Male — 40/11.
Pick: Male 42, Tates Creek 14.
No. 4 Trinity (11-2) at No. 2 North Hardin (13-0), 7:30 p.m.
Trinity: QB Nathan McElroy — 2,237 yards/27 TDs; RB Armon Tucker — 1,013 yards/20 TDs; WRs Ryan Miller 883 yards/six TDs, Kaelan Racculia 517 yards/10 TDs.
North Hardin: QB Manie Wimberly — 2,649 yards/24 TDs; RB Lavell Wright — 1,819 yards/25 TDs; WR Josh Moore — 903 yards/10 TDs.
Pedigree: Trinity — 25 state titles (2017); North Hardin — no state finals appearances.
PF/PA average: Trinity — 40/10; North Hardin — 35/7
Pick: Trinity 21, North Hardin 8.
