Predictions, stats and rankings for Kentucky’s high school football playoff semis
Each of Kentucky high school football’s six competitive classes has reached its final four.
Friday night, 12 teams will advance to their respective state championship games at Kroger Field.
Who will move on and who will go home? The Kentucky High School Athletic Association RPI rankings only tell part of the story.
Here’s a look at all of this week’s matchups with scoring offense and defense averages, top players, pedigrees and predictions.
All rankings are the KHSAA’s RPI rankings which were frozen after the final week of the regular season. The rankings were used to seed last week’s and this week’s rounds.
Class A
No. 10 Williamsburg (6-2) at No. 2 Kentucky Country Day (9-1).
Williamsburg: (33.6 points per game/16.8 points allowed per game) QB Sydney Brown — 1,394 yards/18 TDs passing, 517 yards/nine TDs rushing; WR Gavon Thomas* — 953 yards/14 TDs receiving; LB Chris Howard — 23 tackles/five sacks.
KCD: (42 ppg/12.9 papg) QB Luke Russo — 995 yards/11 TDs passing; RB Nathan Caldwell — 887 yards/19 TDs rushing; RB Eric Dickerson — 688 yards/13 TDs rushing; TE/LB Jalen Todd — 482 yards/six TDs receiving, 62 tackles/6.5 sacks.
Pedigree: Williamsburg — Two state finals (2013, 2014); KCD — No state finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: KCD 35, Williamsburg 21.
No. 7 Newport Central Catholic (8-2) at No. 4 Paintsville (8-2).
Newport Central Catholic: (29.4 ppg/15.4 papg) QB Malaki Herndon — 1,022 yards/11 TDs passing, 301 yards/seven TD rushing; RB Joey Runyon — 862 yards/13 TDs rushing; WR Quentin Meyer — 383 yards/four TDs receiving; RB/WR Buddy Atkins — 246 yards/four TDs rushing, 110 yards/two TDs receiving; DL Jack Greene — 66 tackles/4.5 sacks.
Paintsville: (37.6 ppg/11.9 papg) QB Jake Hyden — 1,047 yards/nine TDs passing, 383 yards/nine TDs rushing; RB Harris Phelps — 1,015 yards/15 TDs rushing; WR Karsten Poe — 208 yards/four TDs receiving, 156 yards/six TDs rushing. RB/LB Luke Hyden — 287 yards rushing/seven TDs, 81 tackles/four sacks.
Pedigree: NCC — Five state titles (last, 2012) in 14 finals appearances; Paintsville — Three state finals, including last year.
@HLpreps pick: Paintsville 20, NCC 15.
Class 2A
No. 9 Murray (8-3) at No. 1 Lexington Christian (9-1).
Murray: (29.6 ppg/18.3 papg) QB Rowdy Sokolowski — 1,125 yards/12 TDs passing, 698 yards/11 TDs rushing; RB/DB Charvelle McCallister — 799 yards/12 TDs rushing; 254 yards/two TDs receiving, 21 tackles, three interceptions; RB/S Brendan Dahncke — 723 yards/eight TDs rushing; 185 yards receiving, 58 tackles; LB Andrew Orr — 86 tackles/0.5 sacks.
Lexington Christian: (33.4 ppg/21.3 papg) QB Drew Nieves — 2,317 yards/26 TDs passing, 326 yards/three TDs rushing; RB/WR Xavier Brown — 805 yards/nine TDs receiving, 272 yards/five TDs rushing; WR Mason Moore — 805 yards/10 TDs receiving, 37 tackles; LB Mattie Lebryk — 112 tackles/4.5 sacks..
Pedigree: LCA — One state title (2009) in two finals appearances; Murray — Two state titles (1961, 1974) in four state finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: LCA 36, Murray 28.
No. 4 Beechwood (8-2) at No. 2 West Carter (10-1).
Beechwood: (38 ppg/9.5 papg) QB Cameron Hergott* — 2,023 yards/21 TDs passing, 885 yards/12 TDs rushing, WR Mitchell Berger — 523 yards/five TDs receiving; WR Brady Moore — 484 yards/four TDs receiving; WR Parker Mason — 390 yards/three TDs receiving; RB Avery Courtney — 356 yards/five TDs rushing.
West Carter: (39.7 ppg/11.9 papg) QB Orry Perry — 1,375 yards/23 TDs passing; RB/S Leetavious Cline* — 1,915 yards/29 TDs rushing, 105 yards/one TD receiving, 42 tackles; WR Jackson Bond — 616 yards/nine TDs receiving; WR Blake McGlone — 343 yards/five TDs receiving; LB Dylan Roe — 97 tackles/2.5 sacks.
Pedigree: Beechwood — 14 state titles (last, 2018) in 19 finals appearances; West Carter — No state finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: Beechwood 42, West Carter 14.
Class 3A
Christian Academy-Louisville (7-2) at No. 1 Elizabethtown (11-0).
CAL: (32.3 ppg/15.7 papg) QB Conner Masters — 1,900 yards/24 TDs passing; RB Brandt Babin — 884 yards/eight TDs rushing; WR Easton Messer — 758 yards/10 TDs receiving; WR Gage Geren* — 413 yards/six TDs receiving; LB Braeden Babin — 118 tackles/10sacks.
Elizabethtown: (45.6 ppg/14.2 papg) QB Clay Games — 2,130 yards/29 yards passing/34 yards/two TDs rushing; RB/LB Camran McNeil — 1,001 yards/12 TDs rushing, 73 tackles; RB Khia Sherrard — 525 yards/seven TDs rushing, 615 yards/eight TDs receiving; WR Camden Williams — 504 yards/three TDs receiving; LB Trey Durbin — 76 tackles/three sacks.
Pedigree: CAL — Two state titles (2016, 2018) in two finals appearances; Elizabethtown — One state title (1969) in five finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: CAL 23, Elizabethtown 21.
No. 7 Belfry (7-3) at No. 2 Ashland Blazer (9-0).
Belfry: (33.6 ppg/13.3 papg) RB Isaac Dixon* — 1,609 yards/25 TDs rushing; QB/LB Brett Coleman — 219 yards/three TDs passing, 547 yards/nine TDs rushing, 70 tackles; RB Kyle Webb — 270 yards/four TDs.
Ashland Blazer: (41 ppg/4.7 papg) RB Keontae Pittman* — 1,226 yards/21 TDs rushing; RB/WR JT Garrett — 426 yards/nine TDs receiving, 498 yards/five TDs receiving; QB Brett Mullins — 863 yards/seven TDs passing; LB Caleb Tackett — 91 tackles/one sack.
Pedigree: Belfry — Seven state titles (last, 2019) in 14 finals appearances; Ashland Blazer — Two state titles (1967, 1990) in four finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: Belfry 14, Ashland Blazer 10.
Class 4A
No. 12 Hopkinsville (7-2) at No. 1 Boyle County (8-0).
Hopkinsville: (26.3 ppg/16.3 papg) QB Treyvon Jefferson — 1,376 yards/16 TDs passing, 71 yards/two TDs rushing; RB Jayden Dillard 585 yards/seven TDs rushing; WR Reece Jesse — 712 yards/seven TDs receiving; RB/S Ventrial Baker — 192 yards/four TDs rushing, 70 yards/two TDs receiving; 37 tackles/one sack.
Boyle County: (43.4 ppg/9.2 papg) QB Jagger Gillis — 1,637 yards/22 TDs passing, 281 yards/10 TDs rushing; RB Will McDaniel* — 863 yards/16 TDs rushing, 245 yards/three TDs receiving; WR Luke Shepperson — 504 yards/six TDs receiving; WR Cole Lanter — 500 yards/eight TDs receiving. DE Tommy Ziesmer — 40 tackles/six sacks.
Pedigree: Hopkinsville — Two state titles (1965, 1966) in four finals appearances; Boyle County — Eight state titles (last, 2017) in 10 finals appearances
@HLpreps pick: Boyle County 48, Hopkinsville 14.
No. 7 Franklin County (8-1) at No. 2 Johnson Central (10-0).
Franklin County: (42.1 ppg/10.4 papg) QB Nick Broyles — 1,951 yards/24 TDs passing/108 yards/one TD rushing; WR Fred Farrier* — 874 yards/11 TDs receiving; RB Kaden Moorman 534 yards/11 TDs rushing; WR/DB Zach Claudio — 496 yards/four TDs receiving, 86 yards/one TD rushing, 29 tackles, six interceptions; DE Phillip Peiffer — 80 tackles/10.5 sacks.
Johnson Central: (46.1 ppg/8.5 papg) RB/DB Dylan Preston* — 1,597 yards/28 TDs rushing, 152 yards/four TDs receiving, 42 tackles/eight sacks; QB Grant Rice — 621 yards/nine TDs passing, 324 yards/five TDs rushing; RB Mason Lawson — 739 yards/10 TDs rushing; LB Mason Lemaster — 77 tackles/4.5 sacks.
Pedigree: Franklin County — No state finals appearances; Johnson Central — Two state titles (2016, 2019) in five finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: Franklin County 21, Johnson Central 20.
Class 5A
No. 9 Frederick Douglass (7-1) at No. 1 Owensboro (10-0).
Frederick Douglass: (40.1 ppg/13.5 papg) QB Samuel Cornett — 1,313 yards/24 TDs passing; RB Darius Neal* — 815 yards/11 TDs rushing; WR Dane Key — 478 yards/10 TDs receiving, kickoff return TD; WR Dekel Crowdus — 331 yards/nine TDs receiving; DB Ty Bryant — 47 tackles, interception. OL/DL Jager Burton (rated as No. 3 2021 guard in the nation by 247Sports.com).
Owensboro: (44.9 ppg/11.1 papg) QB Gavin Wimsatt* — 1,926 yards/23 TDs passing, 333 yards/six TDs rushing; RB Ethan Avery — 598 yards/nine TDs rushing; WR Treyvon Tinsley — 527 yards/nine TDs receiving; LB Austin Gough — 101 tackles; DB Maurice Moorman — five interceptions.
Pedigree: Douglass — Made first state finals appearance last season; Owensboro — Two state titles (1974, 1986) in six finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: Douglass 28, Owensboro 17.
No. 5 Bowling Green (8-2) at No. 3 Covington Catholic (9-1).
Bowling Green: (29.6 ppg/10.8 papg) QB Conner Cooper — 1,628 yards/13 TDs passing, 322 yards/four TDs rushing; RB Javeius Bunton — 887 yards/18 TDs rushing; Jordan Dingle* 473 yards/two TDs receiving; WR Eli Burwash — 317 yards/four TDs receiving; LB Rece Jones — 111 tackles/three sacks.
Covington Catholic: (31.7 ppg/9 papg) QB Caleb Jacob — 1,689 yards/10 TDs passing, 508 yards/15 TDs rushing; WR Ethan Reardon — 697 yards/four TDs receiving; RB Owen Nally — 391 yards/seven TDs rushing, 76 yards/one TD receiving; RB Brayden Collins — 219 yards/five TDs rushing; DL Benjamin Dickhaus — 59 tackles/6.5 sacks.
Pedigree: Bowling Green — Six state titles (last, 2016) in 10 finals appearances; Covington Catholic — Eight state titles (last, 2019) in nine finals appearances
@HLpreps pick: Bowling Green 24, Covington Catholic 21.
Class 6A
No. 10 St. Xavier (6-2) at No. 1 Trinity (8-0).
St. Xavier: (26.3 ppg/13.9 papg) RB Grant Goodman — 511 yards/four TDs rushing; QB Giles Pooler — 854 yards/five TDs passing; WR Mekhi Smith — 211 yards/five TDs rushing, 419 yards/four TDs receiving; LB Jaxon Panariello — 41 tackles/two sacks.
Trinity: (46.3 ppg/6 papg) QB Nathan McElroy — 1,134 yards/16 TDs; RB Armon Tucker — 672 yards/13 TDs, RB Brad West — 491 yards/10 TDs rushing; WR Jack Mitchell — 241 yards/seven TDs receiving. LB Brandon Stearman — 42 tackles/two sacks. LB Jack Dingle — 20 tackles/ five sacks.
Pedigree: St. X — 12 state titles (last, 2009) in 17 finals appearances; Trinity — 26 state titles (last, 2019) in 30 finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: Trinity 49, St. Xavier 28.
No. 6 Paul Laurence Dunbar (7-2) at No. 5 Male (7-1).
Dunbar: (30.8 ppg/15.7 papg) QB Jake Smith* — 1,635 yards/21 TDs passing; RB Kamarion Robinson — 762 yards/five TDs rushing; WR Howard Jackson — 632 yards/10 TDs receiving; WR/DB Frank Illunga — 332 yards/three TDs receiving, 61 yards/one TD rushing, two interceptions; DE Mason Hayslett — 62 tackles/one sack; DE/LB Weston Holloman — four interceptions.
Male: (46.8 ppg/11.1 papg) RB Jaylin Bross — 1,045 yards/19 TDs rushing, 62 yards/one TD receiving; WR Anthony Vincel — 413 yards/seven TDs; QB Nic Schutte — 943 yards/14 TDs passing; DL Selah Brown* — 32 tackles/three sacks; LB Elijah Manning — 44 tackles/1 sack.
Pedigree: Dunbar — One state finals appearance (1996); Male — Eight state titles (last, 2018) in 15 finals appearances.
@HLpreps pick: Male 42, Dunbar 21.
* Kentucky Football Coaches Association District Player of the Year.
Last week’s @HLpreps picks: 18-3, three cancellations.
Overall 2020 @HLpreps playoff picks: 53-13
Last year’s @HLpreps state semis picks: 11-1
