Handicapping the Breeders’ Cup Classic: Who to bet, who to avoid in the big race.
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic offers a seemingly open field that features a worthy favorite in Accelerate but no true superstar and plenty of compelling storylines. The last two Classics at Churchill Downs provided memorable upsets, with long-shot Drosselmeyer besting a similarly open field in 2011 and Blame defeating the previously unbeatable Zenyatta the year before that.
Will another upset occur in Louisville on Saturday evening? Here’s what you need to know on each contender:
1. Thunder Snow (12-1)
Need to know: The memory of him hopping out of the Kentucky Derby starting gate last year and never making it to the first turn is still fresh. He defeated West Coast in the Dubai World Cup this year, finished eighth on the turf in England following a five-month layoff, and was a close second to Discreet Lover in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont five weeks ago.
A good bet? He looked like he might run away with the Gold Cup at the top of the stretch … but didn’t. All things considered, Mendelssohn’s run that day was probably more impressive.
2. Roaring Lion (20-1)
Need to know: One of six 3-year-olds in this field — that age group won three straight Classics from 2014-16 — Roaring Lion is the winner of three consecutive Group 1 races (in England and Ireland) but has never raced in America and has never raced on dirt. There’s a whole lot of turf in his pedigree, too. This will be the last start for the Kentucky-bred son of Kitten’s Joy.
A good bet? Anything close to 20-1 would be enticing for arguably the biggest question mark in this field. If he handles the surface OK, he could very well be around at the end.
3. Catholic Boy (8-1)
Need to know: He’s alternated between turf and dirt in his young career, at one time looking like a major Kentucky Derby contender before being taken off the trail, moving back to turf (where he won two graded stakes races) and then returning to dirt and winning the Grade 1 Travers Stakes a little more than two months ago. He was fourth in last year’s Juvenile Turf.
A good bet? A versatile runner who appears to be getting better as his 3-year-old season progresses, Catholic Boy has the fight to be a factor in the finish. Can’t leave him out of exotics.
4. Gunnevera (20-1)
Need to know: He was seventh in his only start at Churchill Downs (last year’s Derby) and hasn’t been able to find a win against top competition: fifth in last year’s Classic, third in the Pegasus World Cup last January, eighth in the Dubai World Cup in March and second to Yoshida in the Grade 1 Woodward two months ago. Zero wins in eight starts beyond 1 1/16 miles.
A good bet? He’s easy to root for, but hard to wager on in this race. He’ll probably be coming from the back, but he has too many talented horses to pass.
5. Lone Sailor (30-1)
Need to know: The eighth-place finisher in this year’s Derby was riding an 11-race losing streak until he found his way back to the winner’s circle (for just the second time in 14 starts) five weeks ago in the Grade 2 Oklahoma Derby. His speed figures rank below the rest of this field.
A good bet? Lone Sailor should probably be the longest shot on the board when they hit the starting gate. He’d have to show remarkable improvement to factor in here.
6. McKinzie (6-1)
Need to know: Before Justify, there was McKinzie, who was clearly Bob Baffert’s best Derby bet at the beginning of the year and would still be undefeated if not for a questionable DQ following a rough stretch battle with Bolt d’Oro back in March. A leg injury knocked him off the Derby trail — and Baffert’s Justify won the Triple Crown — but McKinzie returned to the track with an impressive victory in the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby six weeks ago. He should be near the front early on.
A good bet? He could have been a star if he’d stayed healthy in the spring, and now is his time to shine. With four-time Classic winner Mike Smith aboard and three-time Classic winner Baffert in his corner, McKinzie takes another big step forward in Louisville.
7. West Coast (5-1)
Need to know: The champion 3-year-old for Baffert in 2017 despite sitting out the Triple Crown series, West Coast finished third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic but didn’t race for six months following a second-place finish in the Dubai World Cup this past March. His return start was a second-place showing to Classic favorite Accelerate. John Velazquez will ride him for the first time Saturday. He’s never missed the board in 12 career starts and might be the best bet to take the early lead.
A good bet? Accelerate won the race five weeks ago, but West Coast — six months removed from racing — got exactly what he needed to run a big one here. A Baffert exacta box is a good bet.
8. Pavel (20-1)
Need to know: A victory in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill in June was the clear highlight of Pavel’s year, which also included three losses to Classic favorite Accelerate — the most recent one by 12 ½ lengths — and a fourth-place finish in the Dubai World Cup. He was 10th in last year’s Classic, finishing 34 lengths behind Gun Runner.
A good bet? You’d have to really love Accelerate to like Pavel, who would likely need a career performance to hit the board Saturday. Too much to ask.
9. Mendelssohn (12-1)
Need to know: The impressive winner of the UAE Derby in March ultimately finished last after a rough trip in the muddy Kentucky Derby. His last two starts have been encouraging: a second to Catholic Boy in the Travers and a gutsy third-place finish behind Discreet Lover and Thunder Snow after chasing a blistering hot pace in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
A good bet? It would be interesting to see how he finished in the Gold Cup had the pace not been so hot. He’s improving, and he should get better circumstances Saturday, but still like other 3-year-olds more in this race.
10. Yoshida (10-1)
Need to know: The Japanese-bred colt’s first 10 starts were on turf — including a Grade 1 win at Churchill on Derby Day 2018 — before he took the Grade 1 Woodward in his first dirt try two months ago. That field was relatively weak (Gunnevera was the favorite) and Yoshida was fifth in two major turf races preceding the Woodward. Trainer Bill Mott is just one of four trainers to win the Classic with two different horses (Cigar and Drosselmeyer were his previous winners).
A good bet? Seems to be a lot of buzz around this colt coming off his first race on dirt, but that field was a little soft and think there’s better value elsewhere.
11. Mind Your Biscuits (6-1)
Need to know: Trainer Chad Summers chose the Classic over the Sprint for Mind Your Biscuits, who was a top player at shorter distances before stretching out in recent months. He’s never gone 1 ¼ miles and had never won at longer than 7 furlongs until his victory in the Grade 3 Lukas Classic at 1 ⅛ miles five weeks ago. He earned a 108 Beyer that day, the highest last-race number in this field.
A good bet? The numbers don’t lie. This horse is fast. Can he get the distance? That’s the question, though he looked like he’d be just fine with another eighth of a mile in his last start. Must include him in the exotics.
12. Axelrod (30-1)
Need to know: Another 3-year-old who missed the Triple Crown series, Axelrod won two straight Grade 3 races in the summer before a second-place finish behind McKinzie in the Pennsylvania Derby. His 104 Beyer in that race is 10 points higher than any of his previous efforts. He’s yet to go beyond 1 ⅛ miles in 10 starts for trainer Michael McCarthy.
A good bet? If he wasn’t going to beat McKinzie in the Pennsylvania Derby — and he had every chance to do so — don’t think he’s going to come close here. Like him better than some of the other long shots, but not enough to bet him.
13. Discreet Lover (20-1)
Need to know: He shocked in a win at 45-1 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, coming from 15 lengths back and taking advantage of a fast pace set by race favorite Diversify by passing Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow (who were closer to that pace) in the stretch. He had failed to finish better than third in six previous starts, including a 12th-place run in the Grade 1 Woodward, his last race before the Gold Cup upset.
A good bet? He benefited from a complete pace meltdown in the Gold Cup and was still all out to beat Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn. Don’t think he’s around at the end here.
14. Accelerate (5-2)
Need to know: The steadiest force in a field full of question marks, Accelerate is 4-for-4 in Grade 1 starts this year and has lost only once in 2018: a second-place finish (by a neck) to Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile contender City of Light in the Grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap in Arkansas, which was Accelerate’s only start outside California in 21 career races. Trainer John Sadler is 0-for-41 at the Breeders’ Cup going into this year’s event.
A good bet? Wasn’t a fan of the way he finished last time out. He won the race, but he might have already shown his best, while others in this field are trending up. Will try to beat the favorite in the exotics.
Also-eligibles
Collected (30-1) and Toast of New York (20-1) are listed as also-eligibles for the race, though Toast of New York will run in Friday’s Marathon Stakes instead. Collected will draw into the Classic only if one of the contenders in the main field of 14 scratches before 8 a.m. Friday.
Collected was the runner-up in last year’s Classic but has run only once since January: a fourth-place finish as the heavy favorite in a Pennsylvania stakes race six weeks ago.
The picks
Win: McKinzie
Place: West Coast
Show: Mind Your Biscuits
Long shot: Roaring Lion
This story was originally published November 1, 2018 at 8:03 AM.