Expert predictions for Preakness: Most aren’t picking Kentucky Derby winner Authentic
Authentic comes into Saturday’s Preakness Stakes — the final leg of this unorthodox Triple Crown — fresh off a decisive Kentucky Derby victory and with no challenge from his top rival in that race.
Belmont Stakes winner and beaten Derby favorite Tiz the Law is looking forward to the Breeders’ Cup Classic next month, but the Bob Baffert-trained Authentic will still have plenty of competition Saturday.
Blue Grass Stakes winner Art Collector, the possible second choice in the Derby until he was sidelined with a minor injury the week of the race, is back and ready to go. Star filly Swiss Skydiver, the Kentucky Oaks runner-up, will also be among the top challengers. Thousand Words, who flipped in the Derby paddock and had to be scratched, was uninjured in that incident and returns to give Baffert another shot at a Preakness win.
Longer shots like Derby third-place finisher Mr. Big News, Pneumatic and Max Player — the only horse who will run in all three Triple Crown races this year — are also intriguing picks for Saturday.
The Herald-Leader asked 20 horse racing aficionados from around the country for their Preakness predictions, and — surprise, surprise — most aren’t siding with the Derby winner.
Here’s what the experts had to say.
John Clay
Herald-Leader
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Max Player
Comment: Three different Triple Crown races, three different winners in this pandemic year.
Ben Roberts
Herald-Leader
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Max Player
Comment: Think Art Collector would’ve gotten the better of Authentic in the stretch at Churchill Downs four weeks ago, if he had the opportunity. Think he’ll get the job done Saturday.
Josh Sullivan
Herald-Leader
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Max Player
Comment: Considered among the favorites to win the Kentucky Derby before being pulled from the field, Art Collector has the tactical speed to upset Bob Baffert’s latest superstar.
Rick Bozich
WDRB
Win: Authentic
Place: Thousand Words
Show: Swiss Skydiver
Comment: Baffert beats Baffert — and everybody else.
John Cherwa
Los Angeles Times
Win: Thousand Words
Place: Art Collector
Show: Authentic
Comment: A common winning strategy is to go with the “other Baffert” and if he gets to the gate, a fresher Thousand Words will do the trick.
Ed DeRosa
Brisnet
Win: Art Collector
Place: Pneumatic
Show: Max Player
Comment: Art Collector would have been my pick in the Derby, so how can I resist him here? I think he’ll get first run on my place and show selections and get the better of Authentic on the lead late. Betting to win at higher than 2-1.
Joe Drape
New York Times
Win: Art Collector
Place: Swiss Skydiver
Show: Mr. Big News
Comment: Louisville native Tommy Drury Jr. scratched his talented colt the week of the Kentucky Derby due to a minor foot injury. That took guts; he will be rewarded for that decision here.
Bill Finley
National turf writer
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Swiss Skydiver
Comment: Will try to beat the favorite, Authentic, and this is clearly the one who has the best chance of doing so. Was primed for big Derby run before minor setback.
Jason Frakes
Courier Journal
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Swiss Skydiver
Comment: Trainer Tommy Drury Jr. gets his redemption after having to pull Art Collector out of the Kentucky Derby four days before the race.
Neil Greenberg
Washington Post
Win: Art Collector
Place: Pneumatic
Show: Max Player
Comment: Art Collector has the speed and class, plus a favorable projected pace scenario, to take the final leg of the Triple Crown on Saturday.
Steve Haskin
National turf writer
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Pneumatic
Comment: There is an old bettor’s saying, “If you missed the wedding, don’t go to the funeral.” I missed the wedding big-time so I will look to Art Collector to pressure Authentic enough and keep going. I’ve loved Pneumatic since his maiden win; reaching his peak.
Byron King
Blood-Horse
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Pneumatic
Comment: Art Collector, perfect in four starts this year, was unfortunate to miss the Derby due to a minor foot ailment and gets his day in the spotlight Saturday.
Tom Leach
Keeneland
Win: Swiss Skydiver
Place: Art Collector
Show: Thousand Words
Comment: Her record of consistency says she’ll have a big say in this and she’ll probably be the biggest price of the top contenders.
Marty McGee
Daily Racing Form
Win: Art Collector
Place: Mr. Big News
Show: Authentic
Comment: Ultra-talented colt missed the Kentucky Derby, unfortunately, but the Preakness as consolation prize ought to do just fine.
Ray Paulick
The Paulick Report
Win: Pneumatic
Place: Authentic
Show: Art Collector
Comment: I may be crazy going against Bob Baffert’s 5-for-5 record in the Preakness with Kentucky Derby winners but Pneumatic may be sitting on a big race for Steve Asmussen at a huge price.
Jay Privman
Daily Racing Form
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Max Player
Comment: Art Collector has trained sharply since ill-timed injury caused him to miss Derby. Taking better price in a match race.
Kenny Rice
NBC Sports
Win: Authentic
Place: Art Collector
Show: Swiss Skydiver
Comment: Authentic keeps living up to his name, moves to head of this class.
Tim Sullivan
Courier Journal
Win: Art Collector
Place: Authentic
Show: Mr. Big News
Comment: Scratched from the Kentucky Derby over a relatively minor hoof injury, Art Collector returns healed, rested and ready to reward the patience of owner Bruce Lunsford and trainer Tommy Drury.
Childs Walker
Baltimore Sun
Win: Authentic
Place: Art Collector
Show: Swiss Skydiver
Comment: It’s not a sexy pick, but Bob Baffert seems awfully confident here, and he rarely misses when that’s the case. Art Collector has the talent to push the favorite all the way, and Swiss Skydiver shows up to run every time out.
Tim Wilkin
Albany (N.Y.) Times Union
Win: Thousand Words
Place: Authentic
Show: Swiss Skydiver
Comment: Baffert wins the Preakness again, but not with the horse you might think.
Preakness Stakes
What: Third leg of Thoroughbred racing’s 2020 Triple Crown
When: 5:45 p.m. Saturday
Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md.
TV: NBC-18
Distance: 1 3/16 miles
Purse: $1 million
Favorite: Authentic (9-5)
Preakness Stakes field
The field for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes in post-position order with odds:
1. Excession (30-1)
2. Mr. Big News (12-1)
3. Art Collector (5-2)
4. Swiss Skydiver (6-1)
5. Thousand Words (6-1)
6. Jesus’ Team (30-1)
7. Ny Traffic (15-1)
8. Max Player (15-1)
9. Authentic (9-5)
10. Pneumatic (20-1)
11. Liveyourbeastlife (30-1)
This story was originally published October 1, 2020 at 2:17 PM.
