Derby Watch: Airoforce, Mo Tom meet again in Risen Star Stakes

When evaluating 3-year-olds on the Triple Crown trail, the form of those around them is often analyzed as heartily as each horse’s individual results.

A victory can be elevated or diminished by those posing the question: Who did they beat? These youngsters are unfailingly judged by the company they keep.

To that end, the participants of last November’s Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs are in strong favor to this point. A handful of them will be reunited in Saturday’s Grade II, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds as they attempt to further flatter themselves in the first of the Kentucky Derby prep races offering 50 qualifying points to the victor.

Airoforce, Mo Tom and Gun Runner — the first-, third- and fourth-place finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club — are part of the field of 11 expected to go to post in the 1 1/16 -mile Risen Star, and each has something to prove.

While Mo Tom won the Grade III Lecomte Stakes in his season debut at Fair Grounds on Jan. 16, Airoforce is the 5-2 morning-line favorite out of post No. 10 based off the versatile form that made him an Eclipse Award finalist for champion 2-year-old male. John Oxley’s colt tried dirt and wore blinkers for the first time in the Kentucky Jockey Club after making his first three starts on turf, and his 1¾-length win over Mor Spirit that rain-soaked evening solidified trainer Mark Casse’s belief there was more talent to unearth.

The form of that race has held wonderfully. In addition to Mo Tom taking a step forward with his Lecomte victory, Mor Spirit came back to take the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity and Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Airoforce was originally slated to debut in the Grade III Sam F. Davis last weekend but those plans were scrapped after he came out of a workout on Jan. 31 with drainage in both nostrils. Casse said last week Airoforce “has really come around” since being treated with antibiotics, and the time has come to find out if the multiple graded stakes winner can deliver his same kick over a fast, main track.

“You can never tell if they’ll handle the (fast) dirt with works, but he has a dirt pedigree,” Casse said. “The only reason he originally ran on the turf was because the purse of the Kentucky Downs maiden was $120,000. After the Breeders’ Cup (second in the Juvenile Turf) we wanted to find out how he would handle dirt and, even though it was sloppy, you couldn’t ask him to do much more than he did that day.”

Gun Runner was not as comfortable over the sealed, sloppy track in the Kentucky Jockey Club but has trained steadily at Fair Grounds all winter in preparation for his 2016 debut.

“I thought that it was an excellent running of the Kentucky Jockey Club and while I hoped for a different result, I thought he ran very well,” trainer Steve Asmussen said.

The Derby Dozen

1. Mohaymen: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has repeatedly said one of the intangibles that separates this unbeaten son of Tapit is the fact he can’t seem to get him tired. Mohaymen’s season-opening victory in the Grade II Holy Bull Stakes was without fault and now McLaughlin is trying to toe the line of keeping the gray colt from peaking too soon. With that in mind, McLaughlin called the colt’s 4-furlong move in :49.60 at Palm Meadows Training Center on Friday “beautiful” especially since Mohaymen often works faster than his conditioner prefers. He’ll have his hands full in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 27 facing the likes of Awesome Banner, Awesome Speed and Zulu.

2. Nyquist: If you were a Nyquist fan before Monday’s Grade II San Vicente, go ahead and feel more emboldened. The unbeaten juvenile champion could not have had a better season debut, racing with Sheikh of Sheikhs through fractions of :22.50 and :44.49, responding when Exaggerator mounted a challenge and drawing clear for a 1½-length win under mild urging from jockey Mario Gutierrez. Stamina questions are going to hang over him, but for Nyquist to take the heat up front in his first outing since last October and still finish as fast as he did is something to be mindful of when evaluating his potential. And if he and Mohaymen remain on a collision course for the Grade I Florida Derby on April 2, it could be reminiscent of the Silver Charm-Free House battles leading into the 1997 Kentucky Derby.

3. Airoforce: Has put in a series of strong works at Palm Meadows Training Center, including his most recent 4-furlong move in :48.30 on Feb. 12, and showed he could take dirt in his face in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

4. Mor Spirit: His win in the Robert B. Lewis showed the kind of progression you want to see out of Derby contenders. He is so much better with a target to chase, compared to his runner-up finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club when he made the lead around the final turn and seemed to idle before Airoforce ran by him. Trainer Bob Baffert, in typical fashion, said he’ll have a better idea on Mor Spirit’s next start after his next work.

5. Brody’s Cause: Trainer Dale Romans said he deliberately slowed down Brody’s Cause’s works because the son of Giant’s Causeway was “wanting to do a little too much right off the bat” as he prepares for his season debut in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby on March 12. The screws are apparently being tightened again with Brody’s Cause working a bullet 5 furlongs in :58.71 at Gulfstream Park on Sunday. Part of the reason Romans settled on the Tampa Bay Derby was the fact Gulfstream doesn’t play particularly well to closers like Brody’s Cause. Expect him to head to the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 9 for his final prep.

6. Exaggerator: Simply got outrun by Nyquist in the San Vicente but put in a good effort to finish second in his first start of 2016. Trainer Keith Desormeaux had nothing but praise for Nyquist saying “to set those kinds of fractions and still finish in close to track-record time for a 3-year-old in February. Wow!.” Such an outing also shows that Desormeaux’s charge has improved as well and, being a son of Curlin, Exaggerator should continue to get better.

7. Mo Tom: Trainer Tom Amoss said this lanky son of Uncle Mo “looks like he is finally filling out” the last few weeks. Amoss also rejects the notion that his top sophomore runner has distance limitations. “I disagree with (pedigree-based detractors),” he said. “When I bought him I was paying a lot of attention to horses I thought could get a distance and I feel very comfortable that he can. I say that after a lot of years of having horses I was very skeptical of them doing that, so I’m very comfortable with the whole thing.”

8. Greenpointcrusader: Worked 4 furlongs in :50.80 at Palm Meadows Training Center on Sunday, his first move since his runner-up finish in the Holy Bull Stakes. The Grade II Louisiana Derby could be his only other Kentucky Derby prep race, a concern considering he still has to prove he can deliver his best run going two turns.

9. Awesome Banner: Trainer Stanley Gold confirmed the unbeaten colt will try two turns for the first time in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes. Gold added he isn’t going to start thinking about the Kentucky Derby until his charge gets past his next hurdle but stresses that the Swale Stakes winner has speed that can be harnessed. “He’s not a run-off, speed-crazy horse. He’s just a quick horse,” Gold said.

10. Smokey Image: Unbeaten California Derby winner worked 4 furlongs in a snappy :47.20 at Santa Anita Park on Monday in preparation for his expected start in the Grade II, San Felipe Stakes on March 12. It’s a whole different world going from beating up on state-breds to facing open company but he handled his first try around two turns powerfully enough to merit respect.

11. Zulu: Drilled 5 furlongs in a bullet :59.95 at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 14. Facing a massive class test in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and he’s going to have some stout company battling for the same piece of real estate near the front end.

12. Suddenbreakingnews: Literally launched himself into the Kentucky Derby picture with his last-to-first rally to win the Grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday. The Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 19 will be next.

The Next Dozen

Gun Runner, Cherry Wine, Danzing Candy, Whitmore, Sunny Ridge, Destin, Awesome Speed, Flexibility, Discreetness, Shagaf, Tom’s Ready, Uncle Lino.

This story was originally published February 19, 2016 at 6:03 PM with the headline "Derby Watch: Airoforce, Mo Tom meet again in Risen Star Stakes."