Horses

Kentucky Derby predictions: What the experts are saying

Derby 142 hopeful Exaggerator with Peedy Landry up were on the track for training, Wednesday, May 04, 2016 at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
Derby 142 hopeful Exaggerator with Peedy Landry up were on the track for training, Wednesday, May 04, 2016 at Churchill Downs in Louisville.

Alicia Wincze Hughes

Affiliation: Herald-Leader

Win: Nyquist

Place: Destin

Show: Brody’s Cause

Comment: On form, I can't see a way to go against Nyquist as he has already defeated most of the leading contenders and is versatile enough to make his own luck regardless of pace.

John Clay

Affiliation: Herald-Leader

Win: Nyquist

Place: Mohaymen

Show: Exaggerator

Comment: Nyquist hasn't done anything wrong and there's no reason to believe that will change Saturday.

Ben Roberts

Affiliation: Herald-Leader

Win: Exaggerator

Place: Suddenbreakingnews

Show: Mor Spirit

Comment: Exaggerator is much improved since his last meeting with Nyquist, and he doesn’t need the slop to prove it Saturday.

Franklin Renfro

Affiliation: Herald-Leader

Win: Creator

Place: Exaggerator

Show: Nyqist

Comment: Creator is improving with each start and his move through traffic in the Arkansas Derby shows he’s willing to fight to get to the front.

Rick Bozich

Affiliation: WDRB

Win: Exaggerator

Place: Brody’s Cause

Show: Nyquist

Comment: WARNING: I did not pick American Pharoah.

Ed DeRosa

Affiliation: TwinSpires.com

Win: Exaggerator

Place: Mor Spirit

Show: Gun Runner

Comment: Exaggerator has lost to Nyquist all three times they’ve met, but at twice the price in the Kentucky Derby I’m willing to gamble that the son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin can turn the tables on the undefeated champion.

Bill Finley

Affiliation: National turf writer

Win: Danzing Candy

Place: Nyquist

Show: Exaggerator

Comment: If Danzing Candy can get comfortable on the lead he has a big shot to win wire-to-wire at a big price; it's all about the pace.

Katie Gensler

Affiliation: Keeneland analyst

Win: Nyquist

Place: Gun Runner

Show: Mohaymen

Comment: The 2-year-old champion keeps getting better and better with hopes of becoming the first undefeated 3-year-old to win the Derby since Big Brown in 2008.

Neil Greenberg

Affiliation: Washington Post

Win: Exaggerator

Place: Gun Runner

Show: Creator

Comment: Exaggerator is the only horse in the field to post back-to-back triple-digit speed figures in his last two prep races and has the running style and pedigree to stay competitive throughout the Derby. (More: Greenberg’s betting column).

Steve Haskin

Affiliation: The Blood-Horse

Win: Suddenbreakingnews

Place: Whitmore

Show: Nyquist

Comment: Although Nyquist and Exaggerator could be standouts, I'm looking for a price and I love the way Suddenbreakingnews is coming into the race and am hoping the addition of a shadow roll will help him concentrate and he can launch his devastating closing kick a little earlier.

Tom Leach

Affiliation: UK radio announcer

Win: Exaggerator

Place: Suddenbreakingnews

Show: Brody’s Cause

Comment: Exaggerator is peaking at the right time to turn the tables on his old rival Nyquist and help the Desormeaux brothers make Derby history.

Jonathan Lintner

Affiliation: Courier-Journal

Win: Brody’s Cause

Place: Nyquist

Show: Gun Runner

Comment: The Blue Grass Stakes winner has the type of acceleration to be the best of the closers. Hopefully, Nyquist isn't too far in front to catch.

Marty McGee

Affiliation: Daily Racing Form

Win: Exaggerator

Place: Creator

Show: Brody’s Cause

Comment: Kent and Keith win one for the Family Desormeaux ... and for Cajun Nation.

William Nack

Affiliation: Author and journalist

Win: Gun Runner

Place: Brody’s Cause

Show: Mor Spirit

Comment: A stakes-winning stalker who can stay out of traffic trouble and who has much stamina in his pedigree, consistency in his performances, and our new Hall of Fame trainer, Steve Asmussen, to get him there.

Ray Paulick

Affiliation: PaulickReport.com

Win: Exaggerator

Place: Creator

Show: Nyquist

Comment: As a son of Curlin, Exaggerator has the breeding to get the Kentucky Derby’s testing mile and a quarter distance, and I can’t say the same of favored Nyquist, whose sire line suggests a mile to nine furlongs being his optimum trip.

Mike Penna

Affiliation: Horse Racing Radio Network

Win: Destin

Place: Mor Spirit

Show: Brody’s Cause

Comment: Defeated fellow derby entrants Outwork and Brody's Cause in his track-record-setting Tampa Bay Derby win. Has great tactical speed which should place him in a perfect spot turning for home.

Laffit Pincay

Affiliation: NBC Sports

Win: Outwork

Place: Nyquist

Show: Whitmore

Comment: Outwork will avenge his sire Uncle Mo's Derby disappointment.

Jennie Rees

Affiliation: WAVE-3

Win: Gun Runner

Place: Brody’s Cause

Show: Creator

Comment: Steve Asmussen could win with either of his horses, but I’ve been on Gun Runner’s bandwagon all along.

Kenny Rice

Affiliation: NBC Sports

Win: Nyquist

Place: Outwork

Show: Mor Spirit

Comment: The setting is right for upset, but hard to go against perfection so far.

Tim Sullivan

Affiliation: Courier-Journal

Win: Nyquist

Place: Gun Runner

Show: Shagaf

Comment: Hard to pick another favorite, but harder to find a better horse.

Mike Watchmaker

Affiliation: Daily Racing Form

Win: Creator

Place: Mor Spirit

Show: Danzing Candy

Comment: Creator’s recent rate of improvement has been eye catching and this looks like a good year for a “now” horse in the Derby.

Tim Wilkin

Affiliation: Albany (N.Y.) Times-Union

Win: Mohaymen

Place: Mor Spirit

Show: Brody’s Cause

Comment: Mohaymen gives Lexington’s Kiaran McLaughlin his Derby win and makes up for Florida Derby flop.

This story was originally published May 6, 2016 at 6:12 PM with the headline "Kentucky Derby predictions: What the experts are saying."

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