Handicapping the Blue Grass Stakes: Who can defeat star filly Swiss Skydiver?
Three months late is better than never, and while Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes field might lack for top Kentucky Derby contenders — as of now — it won’t lack for intrigue.
Originally scheduled for the April Spring Meet, which was scrapped due to the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s edition of the Blue Grass drew 13 entries Wednesday and will highlight a loaded weekend of graded stakes races for the five-day Summer Meet at Keeneland.
The Blue Grass is also one of just three 100-point races remaining on the road to the Kentucky Derby, which was pushed back to Sept. 5.
Swiss Skydiver — an accomplished filly trained by Lexington native Kenny McPeek — will face off against the boys Saturday, becoming just the second filly to run in the Blue Grass Stakes and the first since 1944. A victory here could propel her to the Kentucky Derby.
Here’s a closer look at each contender in Saturday’s race, along with some predictions.
1. Shivaree
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Ralph Nicks
With the inside post and seemingly little early speed in this field, expect Shivaree to break straight for the lead out of the gate, much like he did in the Florida Derby back in March. In that race, he battled Ete Indien at the front before both gave way to Tiz the Law, who went on to win the Florida Derby, the Belmont Stakes and is the clear, current Kentucky Derby favorite. Shivaree — at 80-1 odds — showed a lot of fight in the stretch of that race and finished second. Last time out, he was third in a loaded allowance race won by Sole Volante, another Derby contender. This will be his 12th career start, but the first outside of Florida. This will also be the first time with Velazquez aboard. Emisael Jaramillo was the jockey for his previous seven races.
2. Finnick the Fierce
Odds: 12-1
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Rey Hernandez
Finnick the Fierce actually finished ahead of Tiz the Law in the Belmont winner’s only career loss — the pair were second and third, respectively, in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs last November — but Finnick hasn’t had a breakout performance yet. The one-eyed gelding — a son of Dialed in — broke his maiden in his very first race and hasn’t crossed the finish line first in seven starts since (his other victory came after being placed first due to a disqualification). He was third behind Nadal and King Guillermo in one division of the Arkansas Derby and third behind Art Collector last time out at Churchill Downs. He’ll likely be coming from the middle of the pack Saturday, when Ortiz will ride him for the first time.
3. Art Collector
Odds: 6-1
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Tom Drury Jr.
The most intriguing male contender in this race, Art Collector ran his first three races on the turf last fall before transitioning to dirt, where he’s won three straight — all at Churchill Downs. (The first of those wins was thrown out following a positive drug test, and he’s switched trainers since then). Art Collector was mighty impressive in his last start, earning a 100 Beyer Speed Figure with a 6 ½-length victory in a $100,000 allowance race last month. The runner-up in that race, Shared Sense, came back to win the Indiana Derby on Wednesday night. Art Collector — a son of Bernardini, the Preakness winner and champion 3-year-old in 2006 — is likely to stay right near the pace Saturday, and he should be in the mix at the top of the stretch.
4. Mr. Big News
Odds: 10-1
Jockey: Mitchell Murrill
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Mr. Big News broke his maiden on the fourth try in January, then finished fifth in the Grade 2 Risen Star before coming through with a big effort from way off the pace to win the Oaklawn Stakes at 46-1 odds in April. A son of Giant’s Causeway — and the great stallion Galileo is his damsire — will be trying that come-from-behind strategy again Saturday, when he looks to accrue his first Kentucky Derby points. “He’s a really royal-bred horse and I think he’s going to prove himself,” Calhoun said this week. His Bris speed figures have improved in each of his six career starts.
5. Man in the Can
Odds: 12-1
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Ron Moquett
An Arkansas-bred colt, Man in the Can has won his last three starts — and four of five in his career — with a sixth-place finish in late February the only blemish on his record so far. This will be a big step, though he seems to be improving with every race and is coming off a victory in a $75,000 allowance race at Churchill Downs (his first start with Gaffalione aboard). Look for him to stay relatively close to the lead Saturday. We’ll see in the stretch if he belongs in this class of company.
6. Hard Lighting
Odds: 50-1
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Alexis Delgado
On paper, there’s not much reason to think Hard Lighting has much of a shot. He has just four career races — all at Gulfstream Park — with just one victory, which came in a $45,000 maiden race in May. Last time out, he was sixth and last and never threatened in the allowance race that featured Sole Volante, Shivaree and Ete Indien. All indications are he’ll be coming from the back of the pack, if he makes a move at all. His sire, Hard Spun, was second in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes — and third in the Preakness — in 2007.
7. Swiss Skydiver
Odds: 3-1
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
For the first time since World War II, a filly will run against the boys in the Blue Grass Stakes. Swiss Skydiver — winner of three straight races, all graded stakes — should pose a formidable threat, and she’s likely to be battling for the lead right off the bat. Her Equibase speed figures have improved over each of her last three starts, and Hall of Famer Mike Smith will make the trip to Lexington after riding her to victory in the Santa Anita Oaks last month. She’s currently No. 1 on the Kentucky Oaks points leaderboard, but a win Saturday would ramp up the Derby speculation, and McPeek says he’s open to the idea. This will be her first start beyond 1 1/16 miles, but McPeek says she’ll like the 1 ⅛-mile distance. The daughter of Daredevil will also get a 5-pound weight break against the boys here.
8. Basin
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Basin — a son of Liam’s Map — was second place all the way around to one-time Kentucky Derby favorite Charlatan in one division of the Arkansas Derby back in May, and he never gave up, beaten 6 lengths in the runner-up finish. (Charlatan, now off the Derby trail, had a positive drug test after that race). Basin finished fourth to Mr. Big News in the Oaklawn slop the race before that and he’s yet to find the winner’s circle in 2020 following his Grade 1 win in the Hopeful Stakes last fall. His career best Beyer (an 87) came in that Arkansas Derby run. Look for him to be right up there with Swiss Skydiver and Shivaree in the early going Saturday.
9. Attachment Rate
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Dale Romans
The son of Hard Spun has just one maiden victory in six career starts, but there seems to be promise here. He has battled against some top competition recently — finishing 5 lengths behind one-time top Derby contender Maxfield last time out; and finishing a respectable second to Belmont Stakes runner-up Dr. Post the start before that — and Attachment Rate didn’t have the easiest trip in either of those races. He should be racing relatively close to the early lead for trainer Dale Romans, who has two Blue Grass Stakes victories on his resume.
10. Rushie
Odds: 5-1
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Making the trip east will be Rushie, who has raced primarily in California and most recently finished third to Honor AP and Authentic — two top-tier Kentucky Derby contenders — in the Santa Anita Derby five weeks ago. The gray son of Liam’s Map should be racing a few lengths off the leaders Saturday, and he should be among the top contenders if he has some room to run in the stretch. Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano — winner of last year’s Blue Grass Stakes — will be the sixth different rider in six career starts for Rushie.
11. Hunt the Front
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Trainer: Nick Zito
Hunt the Front — a son of Revolutionary — finally broke his maiden on the sixth try in a race at Oaklawn Park in May, but he returned off that to finish seventh in a Churchill Downs allowance race won by Man in the Can last month. He’s a pure closer who could be last in this 13-horse field in the early going, and he’ll probably be one of the longest shots at post time. Zito is one of five trainers with a record three Blue Grass Stakes victories, his first coming in 1991 with Strike the Gold, who remains the last horse to win both the Blue Grass and the Kentucky Derby.
12. Enforceable
Odds: 8-1
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Mark Casse
Enforceable was right in the thick of the Kentucky Derby conversation following his victory in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes back in January, but two defeats at Fair Grounds since have lessened his standing a bit. His most recent effort was a fifth-place finish in the March 21 Louisiana Derby, a race that didn’t quite set up for his late-running style. If there’s a hot early pace, he could be there at the end. Rosario will ride the son of Tapit for the first time after Julien Leparoux was aboard for his past three races.
13. Tiesto
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Bill Mott
The son of Tiznow has finished sixth, second and third in three races since breaking his maiden on the first try last fall. His speed figures over four career starts — all on the turf, mind you — say he’ll need to take a major step forward to contend in Saturday’s race, and he’ll have to do it from the far outside post in this 13-horse field. Perhaps he’ll take a liking to the new surface? He’s been working out on the dirt at Churchill Downs, and his trainer/jockey combo of Mott and Prat (riding Tiesto for the first time) teamed up to win last year’s Kentucky Derby.
Blue Grass Stakes picks
Art Collector was impressive at Churchill Downs a few weeks ago and has the look of a colt that should take an even bigger step forward and add his name to the list of legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders. Swiss Skydiver holds on for a second-place finish after fighting Shivaree and Basin up front, while Rushie makes a charge in the stretch to take third.
If you’re looking for a long shot, Tiesto is an intriguing contender for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and deserves consideration for the exotic bets in his first start on the dirt.
Saturday at Keeneland
What: Six graded stakes races including the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and the Central Bank Ashland Stakes, which are prep races for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, respectively
When: First post is 1:05 p.m. Post time for the Ashland is 4:24 p.m., for the Blue Grass, 5:30 p.m.
TV: TVG
Radio: WLAP-AM 630
Blue Grass Stakes favorite: Swiss Skydiver (3-1)
Ashland Stakes favorite: Venetian Harbor (6-5)
