Some early Kentucky Derby contenders will be running at Keeneland this weekend
Racing returns to Keeneland this weekend for the start of the 2021 Fall Meet, and the schedule includes one race in particular that always catches the eye of those looking ahead to the Kentucky Derby.
The Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity is set for Saturday’s loaded race card, and the 1 1/16-mile race for 2-year-olds is likely to produce some top early contenders for the 2022 Derby.
The $500,000 race was first run in 1910 and has featured eight future Kentucky Derby winners over the years. Swale — the 1984 Derby champ — was the last horse to win both races, but the most recent runnings of the Futurity have established some of the sport’s biggest contemporary stars.
Essential Quality, Maxfield and Knicks Go have won the last three editions of the Breeders’ Futurity, and all three are viewed among the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic next month. Last year’s winner, Essential Quality, finished fourth as the favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby — the only loss in his career so far — before coming back to win the Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes after that.
Needless to say, this year’s Breeders’ Futurity winner will have a lot to live up to.
Saturday’s race is a “Win and you’re in” opportunity for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 5, and the Keeneland field will feature some intriguing Kentucky Derby contenders (even though that race is still seven months away).
The William Hill sportsbook released its first batch of 2022 Derby odds this week, and that sheet includes six of the 2-year-olds entered in the Breeders’ Futurity.
The shortest early Derby price among the Futurity contenders is Classic Causeway, who is listed at 65-1 on the Derby sheet and will be starting from the extreme outside No. 13 post position in Saturday’s race.
The Kentucky-bred son of Giant’s Causeway has Kentucky Derby champ Thunder Gulch as a damsire and won his first start impressively last month at Saratoga. He’s trained by Australia native Brian Lynch, who has conditioned four Grade 1 winners but has never had a Kentucky Derby starter.
In terms of shortest odds on the early William Hill sheet, Classic Causeway ranks No. 8. Only five horses are listed at shorter than 50-1.
Kevin’s Folly and Stellar Tap are both at 85-1 for next year’s Derby and should be among the top contenders Saturday.
Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains Stellar Tap, a gray son of Tapit who finished fifth as the favorite in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs last month. Kevin’s Folly, a son of Distorted Humor and trained by Tom Amoss, is coming off a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes.
The Breeders’ Futurity field will also feature Double Thunder (100-1 in the early Derby odds) and Great Escape (150-1) — both trained by two-time Derby winner Todd Pletcher — as well as Don’t Wait Up, who is trained by Anthony Dutrow and sits at 175-1 on the William Hill sheet, which includes a total of 127 horses going into the weekend.
Early Kentucky Derby odds
The top early contenders on the William Hill odds sheet illustrate the cloud that will hang over the 2022 Derby prep season for the foreseeable future.
Three of the top five 2-year-olds on the list — including early favorite Corniche — are trained by Bob Baffert, who continues to fight a ban from Churchill Downs that would bar his horses from the 2022 and 2023 Kentucky Derbys. The ban was announced after Medina Spirit, who won this year’s Derby, failed a post-race drug test, setting off a chain of suspensions and appeals that have yet to be resolved.
Churchill Downs announced last month that Derby qualifying points “will not be awarded to any horse trained by any individual who is suspended from racing in the 2022 Kentucky Derby or any trainer directly or indirectly employed, supervised, or advised by a suspended trainer.” That, obviously, was a ruling aimed to keep Baffert’s horses out of the 2022 Derby picture.
Yet, at this early stage, the seven-time (for now) Derby winner has some of the top contenders.
William Hill bookmaker Paul Bach told HorseRacingNation.com this week that he decided not to take the Baffert dilemma into consideration when finalizing his first set of 2022 Derby odds.
“If the horse is talented enough, I’m sure the connections will transfer training duties to another trainer,” Bach told the website.
Owners will have several more months to keep their contenders in Baffert’s barn as the legal process plays out. All of the Derby prep races for the time being — including the Breeders’ Futurity on Saturday — award just 10 Derby qualifying points to the winner (with four points to the runner-up, two to the third-place finisher and one to fourth place).
The 50-point Derby prep races don’t begin until late February — with the 100-point races starting in March — and any legitimate contender would need to prove his mettle there to have any realistic shot on May 7.
So, for now, this prep season will begin with Baffert firmly in the conversation.
Corniche is listed as the 15-1 favorite on the Derby futures sheet. The 2-year-old son of Quality Road is 2-for-2 for his young career following an impressive victory in last week’s Grade 1 American Pharoah. He also ran a 98 Beyer Speed Figure — best of all the 2-year-olds so far — in his maiden victory last month. Corniche is owned by Speedway Stable LLC, which recently had the 2019 Kentucky Derby contender Roadster in Baffert’s barn.
Jack Christopher — a son of Munnings and trained by Chad Brown — is second on the William Hill sheet at 20-1 odds following victories in his first two races. He ran a 93 Beyer in winning the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes over the weekend.
Pinehurst — a son of Twirling Candy and also trained by Baffert — is next at 25-1 and also 2-for-2 on his career so far following a victory in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last month.
He’s co-owned by Starlight Racing’s Jack Wolf, who has some other Derby contenders for 2022 and acknowledged on the Ron Flatter racing podcast last week that the small number of points accrued in the early prep races wouldn’t be as important to making the race, but — if it appears Baffert’s horses won’t be permitted to go on to the Derby once it’s time for the bigger preps — Wolf said a change in trainer would need to be made.
“If the horses are not allowed in, we’re going to have to find another trainer,” he said.
Pappacap — a son of Gun Runner and trained by Mark Casse — is at 35-1 on the William Hill sheet. He won his first two races before finishing fourth behind Pinehurst in the Del Mar Futurity and second behind Corniche in the American Pharoah.
Also at 35-1 is Winning Map, a son of Liam’s Map and yet another Baffert trainee. He won a maiden race at Santa Anita in his first start Sunday.
Corniche, Jack Christopher, Pinehurst and Pappacap are all expected to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile next month at Del Mar, and the winner of the Breeders’ Futurity on Saturday at Keeneland would be expected to join that field.
