Kentucky Derby predictions: Experts offer advice on who will win Saturday’s big race
The Herald-Leader asked several horse racing aficionados to handicap Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Morning-line favorite Omaha Beach was looking like a popular choice before Wednesday’s announcement that he would be scratched from the race. So, who is everyone going with now?
Here are our experts’ predictions:
John Clay
Herald-Leader
Win: Roadster
Place: Game Winner
Show: War of Will
Comment: Roadster’s pure talent will make the difference.
Jared Peck
Herald-Leader
Win: Maximum Security
Place: Roadster
Show: Cutting Humor
Comment: Jason Servis’ colt has a win in the mud and maybe some gears he hasn’t even shown yet.
Ben Roberts
Herald-Leader
Win: Maximum Security
Place: Game Winner
Show: Improbable
Comment: With Omaha Beach out, I’ll take the speed. Catch him if you can.
Frank Angst
The Blood-Horse
Win: Vekoma
Place: Roadster
Show: Game Winner
Comment: As good as Vekoma has been, I expect a big move forward here. His running style and post position should help him secure an early position in his comfort zone.
Rick Bozich
WDRB
Win: Improbable
Place: Game Winner
Show: Roadster
Comment: I can take a hint: it’s Bob Baffert’s race until he says it isn’t.
Bill Finley
National turf writer
Win: Game Winner
Place: Roadster
Show: Win Win Win
Comment: We still haven’t seen Game Winner’s best race in 2019.
Jason Frakes
Courier Journal
Win: Roadster
Place: Improbable
Show: Tax
Comment: I’m a sucker for a story, and Roadster’s is one of the best — from 2-year-old phenom to throat surgery to qualifying for the Derby in his last chance. He’s not the most touted of Bob Baffert’s trio, but look for him to wear the roses.
Neil Greenberg
Washington Post
Win: Improbable
Place: Win Win Win
Show: Spinoff
Comment: Improbable’s running style sets up well for this race and his second-place finish over a muddy track in the Arkansas Derby resulted in a strong speed figure despite jockey Jose Ortiz having to deal with his horse going five wide at the half-mile marker.
Steve Haskin
The Blood-Horse
Win: Win Win Win
Place: Spinoff
Show: Tax
Comment: With my big horse Omaha Beach out, no strong feelings other than maybe Tacitus or Game Winner, so I’m going with all long shots.
Melissa Hoppert
New York Times
Win: Improbable
Place: Game Winner
Show: Tacitus
Comment: Improbable finished second in the Arkansas Derby on a sloppy track. He also has the same connections as the Triple Crown winner Justify, and lately all they do is win, win, win.
Tom Leach
UK Sports Network/The Leach Report
Win: Maximum Security
Place: Game Winner
Show: Roadster
Comment: No strong opinion this year so give me the only horse with two Beyers of 100-plus.
Marty McGee
Daily Racing Form
Win: Win Win Win
Place: Tacitus
Show: Game Winner
Comment: Imagine all the fun the headline writers are going to have when Win Win Win wins like a winning winner.
Ray Paulick
Paulick Report
Win: Tacitus
Place: Game Winner
Show: Spinoff
Comment: Tacitus is by leading sire Tapit out of champion Close Hatches and has never run a bad race for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who may finally get that elusive Kentucky Derby win.
Jay Privman
Daily Racing Form
Win: Game Winner
Place: Win Win Win
Show: By My Standards
Comment: Thought it was Mandella’s year but Derby still goes to California connections.
Jennie Rees
WAVE-3
Win: By My Standards
Place: Tacitus
Show: Spinoff
Comment: No firm belief once Omaha Beach came out, but By My Standards checks a lot of boxes and is training fabulously.
Kenny Rice
NBC Sports
Win: Game Winner
Place: Roadster
Show: Tacitus
Comment: Game Winner will enjoy the return to Churchill, and Baffert makes his sixth trip to the winner’s circle.
Nicole Russo
Daily Racing Form
Win: Game Winner
Place: War of Will
Show: By My Standards
Comment: Champion Game Winner, who loves Churchill, feels like Occam’s razor; War of Will, who had terrible luck at the draw, and By My Standards have trained sensationally.
Tim Sullivan
Courier Journal
Win: Game Winner
Place: Roadster
Show: Improbable
Comment: In scratching Omaha Beach, Richard Mandella has cleared the way for Bob Baffert’s sixth Derby victory. The tougher call is which of his horses wins.
Mike Watchmaker
Daily Racing Form
Win: Improbable
Place: Tacitus
Show: Game Winner
Comment: Improbable was my Derby horse at the start of the year and I’m sticking with him, especially at what should be generous odds.
Tim Wilkin
Albany Times Union
Win: Roadster
Place: Code of Honor
Show: Game Winner
Comment: His potential comes full circle and gives Baffert No. 6.
This story was originally published May 3, 2019 at 8:26 AM.