Road to the Kentucky Derby: Top 10 contenders with Belmont Stakes coming up next
There were no major Kentucky Derby prep races this past weekend, but the road to the first Saturday in September is about to get busy again, with the biggest points race on the scrambled calendar coming up next.
The Belmont Stakes — traditionally the third and final leg of the Triple Crown — is scheduled for Saturday, and 150 points will go to the winner. The Belmont will be one of six Derby points races over the next four weeks, which will culminate with next month’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park — the final two 100-point races on the prep calendar.
That means we should have a much clearer picture of the top Derby contenders by this time next month. As of now, the prospective field is a muddled mess.
The past couple of weeks have brought the defections of undefeated Bob Baffert duo Charlatan and Nadal — arguably the two Derby favorites — to injury, as well as injuries to Maxfield — another possible Derby favorite — and Louisiana Derby winner Wells Bayou. All four of those 3-year-olds are now off the Derby trail.
To make things worse for Baffert, his other star Derby contender, Authentic, suffered his first career defeat in the Santa Anita Derby shortly after the announcements that Nadal and Charlatan would be sidelined.
Though new contenders will surely emerge over the next few weeks, here’s a closer look at my 10 top 3-year-olds on the Derby trail, as of now (in order of the latest odds, courtesy of the William Hill sportsbook).
Tiz the Law
Odds: 7-2.
Why he’s here: Since finishing third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs on Nov. 30 to wrap up his 2-year-old season, Tiz the Law has romped to two victories at Gulfstream Park, including a Florida Derby win in late March. His performances as a 3-year-old — coupled with injuries to some of his most formidable peers — have made Tiz the Law the consensus favorite for the Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5.
His next big test will come in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, where Tiz the Law should be the betting favorite on the track that featured his Grade 1 victory in the Champagne Stakes last fall. The son of emerging top sire Constitution is trained by Barclay Tagg, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2003 but hasn’t had a starter in the race in 12 years.
What’s next? The Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Honor A. P.
Odds: 7-2.
Why he’s here: Honor A. P. has long been mentioned as a top Derby contender, and he finally broke through with his biggest performance yet earlier this month: a 2¾-length victory over previously undefeated Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby. Honor A. P. — the son of Honor Code — earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in that race, the best such number of any horse currently on the Derby trail.
The Santa Anita Derby win was just the fourth race and second victory for Honor A. P., who had previously finished second to Authentic in March off a five-month layoff. Honor A. P.’s trainer and jockey (John Shirreffs and Mike Smith) teamed up to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby with long-shot Giacomo.
What’s next? The Shared Belief Stakes on Aug. 1 at Del Mar, the final West Coast prep on the Derby points calendar.
Authentic
Odds: 5-1.
Why he’s here: Whether or not Authentic — the son of Into Mischief — would like the Kentucky Derby distance has been a point of conversation in the past, and he was clearly second-best to Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby, his longest race yet at 1⅛ miles. The Bob Baffert trainee was undefeated in his three prior starts, and he remains one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, but those distance questions will linger. It’s difficult to see Authentic turning the tables on Honor A. P. — or outperforming Tiz the Law — at the Derby distance, and other top contenders will surely emerge in the next few weeks. For now, however, Authentic is still in the top tier, and he’ll get another chance to quiet those distance doubters before he gets to Louisville.
What’s next? The Haskell Invitational on July 18 at Monmouth Park.
Sole Volante
Odds: 8-1.
Why he’s here: Sole Volante — trained by Patrick Biancone — emerged as a major Kentucky Derby threat with his visually impressive victory rally in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes back in February, earning a career-best 96 Beyer for that effort. His come-from-behind style didn’t work against King Guillermo the next time out, a runner-up finish to the 49-1 shot in the Tampa Bay Derby. Sole Volante got three months off after that race, and Biancone is going with an unorthodox — by recent standards — approach. The trainer ran Sole Volante in a 1-mile allowance race last week at Gulfstream Park — he won that one — and will bring him back after just 10 days in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, which will be run at 1⅛ miles this year. It’ll be the biggest test yet for the son of Karakonite, a former Breeders’ Cup Mile winner and multiple Group 1 winner in Europe.
What’s next? The Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Cezanne
Odds: 18-1.
Why he’s here: An obvious beneficiary of the Derby being moved from May to September, this son of Curlin was purchased last year for $3.65 million and has been a major buzz horse in Bob Baffert’s barn ever since. The only problem: he wasn’t actually racing. After his debut was scrubbed last fall due to an issue that Baffert termed as “nothing serious,” anticipation built over his first career start, which finally came on Santa Anita Derby day earlier this month, when Cezanne cruised to victory in a 6½-furlong maiden race, earning a 90 Beyer. It wasn’t the type of eye-popping debut that we saw from previous Baffert favorites Charlatan and Nadal earlier in the year, but Cezanne certainly has talent and is bred for the classic distance. He’ll get a chance to make the Derby starting gate, and he’ll be closely watched over the next few weeks.
What’s next? Cezanne’s second race is still up in the air.
Dr Post
Odds: 25-1.
Why he’s here: He wouldn’t have been in the Derby picture at all if the race had been run May 2, but the postponement has made Dr Post one of the more intriguing contenders on the trail. Two-time Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher has said the extended prep calendar has been especially beneficial for Dr Post, who didn’t make his 2020 debut until March 29, breaking his maiden in a 7-furlong race — earning a 96 Beyer — before coming back with a victory at 1 1/16 miles four weeks later. His first major test comes Saturday with a start in the Belmont Stakes, and the son of Quality Road can establish himself as a legit contender with a solid showing there.
What’s next? The Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Enforceable
Odds: 25-1.
Why he’s here: A son of top sire Tapit and trained by Mark Casse — the winner of the Preakness and Belmont last year — Enforceable has been a standard on Derby top contenders lists throughout the year, but his standing has been slipping. He started his 3-year-old campaign with a win in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January, but he’s finished second and fifth in two Grade 2 races at the Fair Grounds since, the latter coming in the Louisiana Derby nearly three months ago. That was his most recent start, and Casse said late last week that he’s eyeing the Blue Grass Stakes for his next race. Enforceable returned to the work tab earlier this month, and he’ll need a “wow” performance next time out to regain that early Derby buzz. (He was the final addition to this top 10 list).
What’s next? The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on July 11.
King Guillermo
Odds: 25-1.
Why he’s here: King Guillermo burst onto the Derby scene with an impressive victory (at 49-1 odds) in the Tampa Bay Derby, then finished second to Nadal (no shame there) in one of the two Arkansas Derby races eight weeks later. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila is taking a different approach with King Guillermo, who was scheduled to arrive at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May off that eight-week layoff, an unusually long one for a Derby contender. Avila has said he now intends to train King Guillermo up to the Derby — with no starts in between — for what would be a four-month layoff. It’s an unorthodox plan, and we’ll see if it pans out in September. King Guillermo’s connections — Avila, jockey Samy Camacho, and owner Victor Martinez, the former Major League Baseball All-Star — are all from Venezuela, and the colt is named for Martinez’s late father. It has the makings of a great feel-good story for Derby week. None of the three have ever had a starter in the race.
What’s next? The Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs.
Tap it to Win
Odds: 50-1.
Why he’s here: 2019 didn’t end well for Tap it to Win, who finished 10th and last as the 3-1 second choice in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, then finished 10th and last as the 4-1 second choice in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on Oct. 27. Trainer Mark Casse didn’t run the son of Tapit for nearly seven months after those two races, and he returned May 9 with an allowance win at 6 furlongs, then came back four weeks later for a 5-length allowance win at 1 1/16 miles, earning a 97 Beyer for the latter performance. He’s seemingly back on track, and he could be in the thick of the Derby conversation by the end of this week.
What’s next? The Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Pneumatic
Odds: 65-1.
Why he’s here: Another colt high on talent but light on experience, Pneumatic won his first two career races earlier this year at Oaklawn Park before finishing a close third to Maxfield and Ny Traffic in the Grade 3 Matt Winn at Churchill Downs last month. Trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, who has zero wins from 20 Kentucky Derby starters, Pneumatic has seemingly gotten better and better with more experience and longer distances, and he had a bullet workout at Churchill last week. If the son of Uncle Mo continues to improve, he could establish himself as one of the top contenders by September Derby Day.
What’s next? The Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday.
Ten more to watch
Since the Kentucky Derby can feature up to 20 horses, here are 10 more to keep an eye on over the next few weeks. (Note that none of these contenders are from overseas, though points races continue to be added to the European and Japanese roads to the Derby, so we could very well get one or two international entrants in September).
Basin (18-1) continues to be listed at relatively short odds, but he hasn’t won a race since November and most recently finished 6 lengths behind Charlatan in one of the Arkansas Derby races. The Steve Asmussen trainee’s speed numbers are a tier below the top contenders here, and he still needs to show more to be taken seriously as a real Derby threat. His next start will be in the Blue Grass Stakes on July 11.
Mischievous Alex (40-1) might not be up for the Kentucky Derby distance, but he’s won his last three races — including a victory in the Grade 2 Gotham Stakes — and is expected to have two more preps before September: the 7-furlong Woody Stephens this weekend, followed by the Haskell Invitational next month. Trainer John Servis won the Derby with Smarty Jones in 2004.
Modernist (45-1) — a son of Uncle Mo — hasn’t raced since a third-place finish from the far outside post in the Louisiana Derby three months ago, and he’s expected to return in the Belmont Stakes this weekend. A top performance against that field would vault him up the Derby rankings. Trainer Bill Mott won the Derby last year with Country House.
Ete Indien (50-1) finished fourth in the allowance race won by Sole Volante last week after getting caught in a duel for the lead. He deserves another shot based on his standout performances at Gulfstream Park earlier this year, but he, too, has ground to make up.
Farmington Road (50-1) — trained by Todd Pletcher — finished several lengths behind Nadal in one of the Arkansas Derby races, but he made a run from the very back of the pack and seems to be improving with each race. Like many on this list, he’ll get a shot to take another big step at the Belmont Stakes this weekend.
Gouverneur Morris (50-1) — yet another Pletcher trainee — keeps doing just enough to stay in Derby contention, but he’ll need to show another gear soon. The son of Constitution is expected to be one of the favorites in the Blue Grass Stakes next month at Keeneland.
Ny Traffic (60-1) was gritty in a second-place finish to Maxfield last time out and was runner-up in the Louisiana Derby before that. He appears to be a horse that gives his all every time and could still be improving. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is targeting the Haskell Invitational for his next start.
Mystic Guide (65-1) — a son of Ghostzapper — was second to Tap it to Win at Belmont earlier this month in just his third career race after a February debut. Godolphin has high hopes for this Michael Stidham-trained colt, and he could pop up in the Blue Grass Stakes next.
Art Collector (75-1) will be getting more Derby buzz after his impressive victory in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs this past weekend, earning a 100 Beyer for the effort. The son of Bernardini picked up his third straight win on the dirt — all at Churchill — after starting his career with three turf races. A trip to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland could be up next.
Sonneman (100-1) is the son of Curlin and Zardana, who once defeated the great Rachel Alexandra, and could be an interesting long shot to watch in the Derby summer season. He just made his 2020 debut for trainer Mark Hennig last month, and his next start has not been confirmed, though it’s expected to come soon in New York.
Belmont Stakes
When: Saturday
Where: Belmont Park in Elmont, N.Y.
Post time: About 5:42 p.m. ET
TV: NBC-18
This story was originally published June 15, 2020 at 7:31 AM.
