Kentucky Derby Top 10 rankings: Can anyone challenge Tiz the Law for the roses?
After a long and unorthodox summer, the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail is winding its way to the final destination.
With all of the major Derby prep races now in the books and the big race less than a month away, the favorites have been solidified and the field is taking shape.
Tiz the Law and Art Collector were the big winners of the Travers Stakes and Ellis Park Derby, respectively, the final two significant Derby preps over the weekend.
The Travers was run at its customary distance of 1 ¼ miles Saturday, meaning the participants who move on from that race to Churchill Downs will have already experienced the Kentucky Derby distance.
Here’s an early ranking of the top 10 contenders for the Sept. 5 Derby, along with each horse’s odds in the most recent future wager pool, which closed Sunday evening.
1. Tiz the Law
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
Future wager odds: Even
There’s simply no other choice for the top spot following Tiz the Law’s dominant victory in the Travers on Saturday (along with the impressive resume he had already built heading into that race). The son of Constitution is now 4-for-4 in 2020, with wins in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, the Grade 1 Florida Derby, the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, and now the Grade 1 Travers. He won all four races in no-doubt fashion, and he earned an eye-popping 109 Beyer Speed Figure — tops in this 3-year-old group — Saturday evening, when Manny Franco powered him down and started the celebration well before the finish. Trainer Barclay Tagg won the Derby with Funny Cide back in 2003, and he’ll have the favorite at Churchill Downs next month. The only question: how big of a favorite will Tiz be? No horse has gone off as the odds-on favorite in the Derby since Arazi in 1992. That streak could come to an end Sept. 5.
2. Art Collector
Trainer: Tommy Drury
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Future wager odds: 8-1
The son of Bernardini did exactly what he was supposed to in Sunday’s Ellis Park Derby, going wire to wire for the victory in his final Kentucky Derby tuneup. If the Derby had been run in May, he wouldn’t have even been in the discussion. His 2020 debut — a victory at 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs — came two weeks after the original Derby date. He followed that up with an impressive win in a high-level allowance race at Churchill and turned around four weeks later to dispatch star filly Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass Stakes, earning a 103 Beyer with that win. Art Collector has shown versatility with his running style, possesses plenty of speed, and he should like the Derby distance. He’ll also be a hometown favorite. Trainer Tommy Drury, jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., and owner/breeder Bruce Lunsford all have Louisville ties.
3. Honor A. P.
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Mike Smith
Future wager odds: 8-1
No worse than second place in five career starts, Honor A. P. won the Santa Anita Derby in early June before returning to the track two weekends ago with a runner-up finish to resurgent Thousand Words in the Shared Belief Stakes, his final Derby prep. The striking son of Honor Code earned a 102 Beyer in both of those races — near the top in this group of Derby contenders — and he’s continually looked like a colt who could flourish at the Derby distance. He never appeared quite comfortable in the Shared Belief before re-rallying late in the stretch to get within a length of the front-running Thousand Words. Here’s guessing that extra quarter-mile will be to his benefit on Derby Day. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has been aboard for all five of Honor A. P.’s previous starts
4. Ny Traffic
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Future wager odds: 30-1
Underestimate this gritty gray colt at your own peril. Ny Traffic has only one victory in five starts this year, but he’s finished no worse than third in any of those races while running against fellow Derby contenders. His Beyer figures have steadily improved over each of his past six races, topping out at 100 with his runner-up finish to Authentic in the Grade 1 Haskell last month. He ran second all the way around in that one before surging toward the pacesetter in the final strides, just missing him at the wire. The son of Grade 1 winner Cross Traffic looks the type that could spice up an exotic ticket on Derby Day. If he takes yet another step forward on Sept. 5, there’s no limit to his final result. Lopez, who finished 11th in his only previous Derby start, rode Ny Traffic in each of his last two races.
6. King Guillermo
Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila
Jockey: Samy Camacho
Future wager odds: 19-1
An unorthodox plan for an unorthodox year, it’ll be more than four months between King Guillermo’s last prep race — a second-place finish in one of the divisions of the Arkansas Derby on May 2 — and the Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5. Churchill Downs records on that subject, which date back to 1929, say no horse has ever won the Derby with a layoff of more than six weeks. This is no ordinary year, however, and King Guillermo has appeared to be one of the most talented runners in this class. He burst onto the scene with an eye-opening victory at 49-1 odds in the Tampa Bay Derby, following that up by finishing 3 lengths behind Nadal — then the possible Derby favorite; now retired with an injury — in the Arkansas Derby. The son of Uncle Mo — who was the sire of 2013 Derby winner Nyquist — won that Tampa Bay Derby off a layoff of more than three months, and another step forward will have him in the mix on Sept. 5. He’s been at Churchill since last month, waiting for everybody else.
6. Dr Post
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Future wager odds: 40-1
Four weeks after his runner-up finish to Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes, the lightly raced Dr Post returned to the track for a third-place showing in the Haskell. He never really factored into that one, running several lengths behind pace-setters Authentic and Ny Traffic, who ran 1-2 all the way around in a race that didn’t really set up for Dr Post’s style. The son of Quality Road will have seven weeks off before the Kentucky Derby and should have a hotter pace to run at in that race. He clearly has the talent, and — with just one career start before March 29 — he could be coming up on his best performances. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him contending in the Churchill Downs stretch four weeks from now.
7. Thousand Words
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Abel Cedillo
Future wager odds: 25-1
What to make of this guy? Thousand Words was one of the more popular Derby picks early in this prep season before falling out of the conversation completely after a fourth-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes in March and an 11th-place showing in the Oaklawn Stakes a month later. He returned to the track on July 4 — finishing second in the Los Alamitos Derby to stablemate Uncle Chuck (who was beaten badly in the Travers) — before completing his comeback with that wire-to-wire win in the Shared Belief Stakes. For that race, he earned a 104 Beyer — the highest such figure by any Derby contender going into this past weekend’s prep races. The Shared Belief was the first time in seven career races that Thousand Words went straight to the lead. It was also his first start with Cedillo, who has never ridden in the Kentucky Derby. (2019 Derby winner Flavien Prat was aboard Thousand Words for five of his six previous races, though he rode Cezanne in the Shared Belief). Does Baffert have this son of Pioneerof the Nile — also the sire of American Pharoah — back in form just in time for the Derby? We’ll see in a few weeks.
8. Authentic
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Future wager odds: 11-1
Is Authentic too low on this list? Maybe. If the Kentucky Derby were run at a distance of 1 ⅛ miles, he’d be several spots higher. But it’s not, and Authentic just looks like a colt who won’t be around at the end of the 1 ¼-mile race, especially against the likes of some others here. So far, he’s done little wrong. A winner in four of his five starts, the son of Into Mischief’s only defeat was a second-place finish — after a less-than-optimal start — to Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby. Honor A. P. was clearly the best that day. Ny Traffic probably would’ve beaten Authentic if the Haskell was a bit longer. Others seem better suited for that Derby distance. Mike Smith rode Authentic last time out, but Drayden Van Dyke was aboard for his previous five starts, including two matchups with Smith and Honor A. P.
9. Caracaro
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Future wager odds: 29-1
Lightly raced but awfully impressive in his young career, Caracaro was the runner-up to Tiz the Law in the Travers on Saturday. There’s no shame in running second to this Derby favorite. Everyone else has in 2020. The Travers was just the fourth start for Caracaro — a son of Uncle Mo — and he’s improved with each run. His runner-up finish in the Peter Pan Stakes came off a layoff of more than six months, and it was his first try around two turns. He showed this past weekend he can excel at the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles. It would not be a surprise to see him in the mix in the Kentucky Derby stretch — perhaps at a big price.
10. Max Player
Trainer: Linda Rice
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Future wager odds: 38-1
Max Player has a similar profile as Caracaro going into the final weeks of the Derby trail. He was on the bench for four and a half months after winning the Grade 3 Withers Stakes back in February, before the COVID-related changes to the prep schedule scrambled Linda Rice’s plans. She brought him back in the Belmont Stakes in June, and he ran an admirable third behind Tiz the Law and Dr Post. On Saturday, he ran third behind Tiz the Law again. The son of Honor Code has seemingly improved over each of his five career starts, and he’s another that is now proven at the Kentucky Derby distance.
This story was originally published August 10, 2020 at 7:57 AM.
