Kentucky Derby Watch 2022: A look at the top 10 contenders (and the Baffert dilemma)
The 2022 Kentucky Derby is only three months away, and the always-tumultuous prep season is even more unsettled than usual this time around.
That’s due to the status of seven-time Derby winner Bob Baffert — with an asterisk on the seven — and the uncertain future of the top contenders in his barn. Churchill Downs has banned Baffert from Derby competition for two years after last year’s winner, Medina Spirit, failed a drug test. The Hall of Fame trainer is fighting that suspension, and Churchill isn’t backing down. As a result of the ban, none of the 3-year-olds in Baffert’s barn are permitted to earn qualifying points toward the Derby starting gate.
There’s still a chance that Baffert’s horses could get into the race, either through their owners moving them to other trainers late in the prep season, or through the 69-year-old trainer’s ongoing legal challenges. In the meantime, Churchill is not including any of his horses in its Derby Future Wager pool.
The biggest prep races don’t start until late March, so the affected owners have some time. Those races give 100 points to the winner and 40 points to second place, and a top-two finish in any of them would be enough — based on previous years — to make the Derby field.
In more positive news for the sport, this year’s class of Derby contenders appears fairly wide-open at this early stage in the prep season, and the races that follow over the next couple of months will be well worth watching.
Lexington native Kenny McPeek has three of the top contenders so far and should have his first Derby starter since 2013 as he looks for his first victory in the race. The star trainer of 2021 — Louisville native Brad Cox — doesn’t have any of the favorites, but it’s still early.
Three major early preps will be run in Florida, New York and California this weekend, and the stakes will only pick up from there.
Here’s the latest on 10 top contenders — with additional information on 10 more promising 3-year-olds — as we turn the calendar to February (with the latest futures odds courtesy of the Caesars Sportsbook). The Herald-Leader will continue to update its top-10 list as the road to the Kentucky Derby on May 7 continues.
Corniche
Caesars odds: 6-1.
Why he’s here: This top-10 list is in alphabetical order, but it’s fitting that the first contender should be the primary example of the Baffert dilemma surrounding this year’s Derby. Corniche won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in gate-to-wire fashion as the 7-5 favorite, capping a 3-for-3 year in which he also won the Grade 1 American Pharoah, a campaign that is likely to earn him 2-year-old champion honors at the Eclipse Awards next week. The sportsbooks have Corniche as the early favorite, though he’s not accumulating Derby points due to Baffert’s ban. Unless the trainer can somehow get around Churchill’s suspension, Corniche will need to be sent to another trainer this spring to make the May 7 race.
Connections: The Baffert trainee is owned by Speedway Stables LLC, which bought Corniche for $1.5 million last year. The owner/trainer combo ran Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster in the Kentucky Derby three years ago. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith — a two-time Derby winner — has been aboard Corniche for all three of his races. He was bred in Kentucky by Bart Evans and Stonehaven Steadings.
Family ties: Corniche is the son of four-time Grade 1 winner Quality Road and six-time graded stakes winner Wasted Tears.
What’s next? So far, there have been no confirmed plans for Corniche’s 3-year-old debut. He’s been galloping at WinStar Farm in Versailles since late November.
Epicenter
Caesars odds: 25-1.
Why he’s here: Epicenter broke his maiden in his second try in a $120,000 race at Churchill Downs in November before coming back six weeks later to win the Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds by more than 6 lengths. His 2022 debut was not a winning one, but it was impressive nonetheless. In the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, he led a sharp pace the entire way before getting nipped by a head at the wire by long-shot Call Me Midnight. Epicenter galloped out ahead of the race winner and third-place finisher Pappacap, the race favorite, and there appears to be much more promise in his future this prep season.
Connections: He’s trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, who has trained such notables as Curlin, Rachel Alexandra and Gun Runner but has a record 23 Derby starts without a winner. Joel Rosario — the 2013 Derby winner and last year’s leading jockey in North American earnings — has been aboard in two of Epicenter’s last three races. He’s owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds and was bred in Kentucky by Westwind Farms.
Family ties: Epicenter is the son of Not This Time, who was retired from racing due to injury following a runner-up finish in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His damsire is Candy Ride, who was the father of Gun Runner.
What’s next? The Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 19 at Fair Grounds is expected to be the next stop for Epicenter, who could get a rematch with both Call Me Midnight and Pappacap there.
Forbidden Kingdom
Caesars odds: 50-1.
Why he’s here: Forbidden Kingdom was visually impressive in winning the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, and the numbers backed up the eyeballs coming out of that 3-year-old debut. He earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for the gate-to-wire victory, the highest by any 3-year-old in 2022. Forbidden Kingdom also turned back a trio of Baffert-trained colts in the race, including even-money favorite Doppelganger, who finished fourth. The rising star has yet to run at more than 7 furlongs, but that challenge will come next, and Forbidden Kingdom is certainly looking like a top contender from the West Coast this year.
Connections: Hall of Famer Richard Mandella is the trainer, and it would be fitting if Forbidden Kingdom got him back to Louisville this year after what happened in 2019, when Omaha Beach was the morning-line Derby favorite but had to be scratched the week of the race due to a breathing issue. It’s been 18 years since Mandella, 71, has had a Derby starter. The colt is owned by MyRacehorse Stable and Spendthrift Farm (co-owners of 2020 Derby champ Authentic). Forbidden Kingdom was bred in Kentucky by Springhouse Farm and has been ridden in all four starts by Juan Hernandez, who’s never had a Derby starter.
Family ties: Forbidden Kingdom’s sire is Triple Crown champ American Pharoah, who has not yet produced a Derby starter. (His first crop of 3-year-olds was in 2020).
What’s next? The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes going 1 1/16 miles on March 5 should be next for Forbidden Kingdom, who will run at longer than 7 furlongs for the first time.
Mo Donegal
Caesars odds: 25-1.
Why he’s here: Mo Donegal broke his maiden at Belmont Park in October and then delivered a thrilling stretch run to defeat race favorite Zandon in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes on Dec. 4. Bottled in on the inside, Mo Donegal was forced to hold back and then make a wide run into the stretch, but he turned it on from there in the impressive victory, earning an 89 Beyer Speed Figure in his final 2-year-old start. He’s been working out at Palm Beach Downs in preparation for his 2022 debut this weekend.
Connections: Trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher, who looks like he could have multiple entrants in the big race again this year. Mo Donegal runs for Donegal Racing — owner of previous Derby third-place finishers Dullahan and Paddy O’ Prado — and he was bred in Kentucky by Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables. Reigning three-time jockey of the year Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard for both of the colt’s victories so far.
Family ties: He is the son of Uncle Mo, who was a champion 2-year-old and the sire of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist. His damsire is Pulpit.
What’s next? The Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Saturday will be the setting for the 3-year-old debut of Mo Donegal, who should face some stout competition in that race.
Pappacap
Caesars odds: 40-1.
Why he’s here: Pappacap is winless in his last four starts following a victory in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last summer, but he’s been running against some of the top competition in the class and is clearly one to watch moving forward. He finished 2021 with a pair of runner-up finishes to early Derby favorite Corniche, including a gritty second-place showing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The slight favorite in the Lecomte Stakes for this 3-year-old debut, Pappacap made a serious run at Epicenter before both were caught at the wire by long-shot Call Me Midnight, with Pappacap finishing less than 1 length behind those two.
Connections: Pappacap is trained by Mark Casse, who has won a ton of big races — including the 2019 Preakness and Belmont Stakes — but has yet to finish higher than fourth with 10 Derby entrants. He’s a homebred for Rustlewood Farm in Florida. Joe Bravo, who turned 50 years old in September, has been aboard Pappacap for his past five races.
Family ties: He’s the son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner and has Scat Daddy — father of Triple Crown champ Justify — as his damsire.
What’s next? A rematch with Call Me Midnight and Epicenter in the Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 19 looks to be the most likely.
Rattle N Roll
Caesars odds: 22-1.
Why he’s here: Rattle N Roll had a couple of stumbles to start his 2-year-old season before breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs in September and coming back two weeks later to smoke a 13-horse field in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. In that race, he was several lengths off the leaders before unleashing a furious run around the final turn and going on to victory. A minor injury kept him out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he returned to training late last month at Gulfstream Park.
Connections: Trained by Lexington native Kenny McPeek, who has won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes but is 0-for-6 in the Derby and hasn’t had a starter in the race in nine years. The owner is Louisville-based Lucky Seven Stable, which has never had a Derby starter (but could have multiple entrants this year). Rattle N Roll was bred in Kentucky by St. Simon Place. Louisville resident Brian Hernandez Jr. has been aboard for three of his four starts, including both victories.
Family ties: Rattle N Roll is the son of Grade 1 winner Connect, with Curlin as his grandsire and Johannesburg as his damsire.
What’s next? The Tampa Bay Derby on March 12 looks like it’ll be the setting for Rattle N Roll’s 3-year-old debut.
Slow Down Andy
Caesars odds: 40-1.
Why he’s here: Talented but still green in his final 2-year-old start, Slow Down Andy bested Baffert-trained favorite Messier in the stretch to win by 1 length in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 11. The margin likely would have been bigger if not for some late-race shenanigans, which included running much of the stretch with his head cocked to the right, as if surveying the crowd. Trainer Doug O’Neill has mentioned the possibility of blinkers for Slow Down Andy’s next start, and the California-bred colt has been training this winter at Santa Anita Park for that 3-year-old debut.
Connections: O’Neill is a two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer (I’ll Have Another and Nyquist), and Slow Down Andy’s connections are deep with Derby experience. He’s a homebred for Paul Reddam, who also owned Nyquist, and Slow Down Andy has been ridden in all three of his races by Mario Gutierrez, who rode both Nyquist and I’ll Have Another to Kentucky Derby victories.
Family ties: Slow Down Andy’s sire is Nyquist, the 2-year-old champion of 2015 and undefeated Kentucky Derby winner the following year. Only 12 Derby winners have gone on to sire a Derby winner, and it hasn’t happened since Grindstone — a son of Unbridled — won in 1996. Slow Down Andy’s damsire is Square Eddie, who won Keeneland’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity in 2008 and was also owned by Reddam and trained by O’Neill.
What’s next? He’ll make his 3-year-old debut at Fair Grounds in the Risen Star on Feb. 19.
Smile Happy
Caesars odds: 16-1.
Why he’s here: Smile Happy broke his maiden with a dominant performance in his first try at Keeneland in October and looked great winning the Kentucky Jockey Club — the premier 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs — four weeks later. He ended up as the 8-1 individual favorite in the most recent Derby Future Wager, thanks in large part to a $10,000 bet by Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, who owned Smile Happy’s sire, Runhappy, during his illustrious racing career.
Connections: Another top contender out of Kenny McPeek’s barn, Smile Happy is also owned by Louisville-based Lucky Seven Stable and was bred in Kentucky by Moreau Bloodstock International Inc. and White Bloodstock LLC. He was ridden in the Kentucky Jockey Club by Louisville resident Corey Lanerie, who has won 19 meet titles at Churchill Downs (a number that is second only to Pat Day’s 34).
Family ties: Smile Happy’s sire is champion sprinter Runhappy, and his grandsire is Super Saver, who also won the Kentucky Jockey Club as a 2-year-old before winning the 2010 Kentucky Derby. His damsire is Pleasant Tap.
What’s next? Smile Happy has been working out at Gulfstream Park since Jan. 1, and he sounds most likely to make his 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19.
Tiz the Bomb
Caesars odds: 40-1.
Why he’s here: Tiz the Bomb finished seventh in his debut at Churchill Downs last May before switching to the turf, though his next start was moved to the dirt at Ellis Park, and he won that won by more than 14 lengths. He went on to win the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland before finishing second to Modern Games in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, his final start of his 2-year-old season. Tiz the Bomb was the 10-1 second choice in the most recent Derby Future Wager (and he would have been the individual favorite if not for McIngvale’s $10,000 bet).
Connections: Yet another colt from Kenny McPeek’s barn, Tiz the Bomb is owned by Phoenix Thoroughbreds, which was founded in 2017 by embattled Dubai businessman Amer Abdulaziz. The Derby contender was bred in Kentucky at Spendthrift Farm, and Brian Hernandez Jr. has been aboard for all five of his races so far.
Family ties: His sire is 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Hit It a Bomb, and his damsire is Tizow, who remains the only two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner.
What’s next? Tiz the Bomb has been training with stablemate Smile Happy at Gulfstream Park, and he’s expected to make his 2022 debut in the Holy Bull there Saturday.
Zandon
Caesars odds: 25-1.
Why he’s here: Zandon won his debut at Belmont Park in October and was the slight favorite over Mo Donegal in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, where those two battled in a thrilling stretch duel, with Mo Donegal beating Zandon to the wire by a nose. Zandon’s owner filed a formal protest a few days after the race, claiming Mo Donegal should have been DQ’d due to a bumping incident in the stretch, as well as arm motions made by Irad Ortiz Jr., the winning jockey. The result was not changed, and both colts remain top Derby contenders going into a possible rematch this weekend.
Connections: Trainer Chad Brown is already a four-time Eclipse Award winner at age 43, but he hasn’t won the Derby with six previous entrants. (Brown was second to Justify with Good Magic four years ago). Owner Jeff Drown, a real estate executive from Minnesota, has never had a Derby starter. Zandon was bred in Kentucky by former governor Brereton Jones, and he was ridden in the Remsen Stakes by four-time Derby winner John Velazquez, who rode the Derby winner in 2020 and 2021.
Family ties: Zandon is the son of Upstart and has Creative Cause for a damsire.
What’s next? Zandon has been working out in Florida for what was an expected 3-year-old debut and rematch with Mo Donegal on Saturday in the Holy Bull, but he’s now likely to run in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 19.
Ten more to watch
Since up to 20 entrants can run in the Kentucky Derby, here are 10 additional contenders to keep an eye on during the 2022 prep season (with the latest Caesars odds):
▪ American Icon (80-1) won his debut Dec. 26 by more than 8 lengths for WinStar Farm and trainer Todd Pletcher, and the son of Gun Runner has fired off three consecutive bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs since that race.
▪ Call Me Midnight (65-1) bounced back from a seventh-place finish at the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill to catch Epicenter and Pappacap at the wire in the Lecomte Stakes at 28-1 odds Jan. 29. The son of sprint champion Midnight Lute is trained by Keith Desormeaux, and we’ll wait and see if this come-from-behind victory was an outlier, the result of a strong pace, or a major step toward achieving real Derby promise.
▪ Chasing Time (50-1) was a 7¾-length winner in his 2022 debut two weeks ago for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, but he’s yet to run against stakes company. The son of Not This Time was 17-1 in the recent Derby Future Wager. Only four contenders had shorter odds.
▪ Classic Causeway (35-1) was the favorite in both of the big 2-year-old races in Kentucky last fall, finishing third behind Rattle N Roll in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and second to Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill. The son of Giant’s Causeway — with Derby champ Thunder Gulch as his damsire — is expected to run in the Holy Bull this weekend for trainer Brian Lynch.
▪ Emmanuel (28-1) was impressive in his winning debut Dec. 11, and the son of More Than Ready fired off bullet workouts at Palm Beach Downs after that, returning to the track Sunday for a decisive victory in a Tampa Bay Downs allowance race. Trainer Todd Pletcher will point him toward a Derby points race next, and he could vault into the top 10 depending on that result.
▪ Giant Game (50-1) finished a respectable third behind Corniche and Pappacap in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and has been training well in Florida ahead of a likely start in this week’s Holy Bull. The son of Giant’s Causeway is trained by Louisville native Dale Romans, who is 0-for-11 in the Derby in his career.
▪ Jack Christopher (15-1) might have been the best 2-year-old in America last year, but a shin injury forced the son of Munnings to miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and has delayed his training for the 2022 season. There are also some distance concerns with his pedigree. The Chad Brown-trainee is out of the top 10 until we see him replicate some of that promise this spring.
▪ Newgrange (25-1) won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday to improve to 3-for-3 for his career, but the son of Violence is trained by Bob Baffert, which means he has no Derby qualifying points, and his owners could be facing a tough decision in the coming weeks.
▪ Oviatt Class (75-1) is an interesting colt for those who love deep closers. The Virginia-bred comes from way off the pace for trainer Keith Desormeaux, and — though he has just one win in six starts — he seems the type that could make noise on Derby Day. His sire (Bernardini) and damsire (Tiznow) were both 3-year-old champions.
▪ Varatti (75-1) is trained by Todd Pletcher and has impressive bloodlines — the son of Into Mischief, with Empire Maker as his damsire. He turned heads with a huge debut at Belmont Park on Sept. 30 but hasn’t raced since. Varatti returned to training last month and should make his 3-year-old debut in the next few weeks.
