Kentucky Derby Watch 2022: Clock ticking on Baffert trainees as new contenders emerge
The penultimate round of Kentucky Derby preps has begun, and there’s plenty to sort out on and off the track with the big race now just a little more than two months away.
There was a major development regarding last year’s Derby a few days ago, with Kentucky racing stewards upholding the disqualification of Medina Spirit and installing race runner-up Mandaloun as the 2021 Derby champ. The effect of that decision on this year’s Derby was the 90-day suspension given to Medina Spirit’s trainer, Bob Baffert, who now has a ban that extends beyond the 2022 Derby date to go along with his two-year Kentucky Derby ban already handed down by Churchill Downs following Medina Spirit’s failed drug test after last year’s race.
Baffert is attempting to fight the suspensions, but, in the meantime, none of his 2022 contenders can accrue Derby qualifying points, and the owners of those horses are getting close to decision time on whether to stick with Baffert — and likely miss out on the Derby — or switch to other trainers. The biggest Derby points races start with the Louisiana Derby on March 26.
For now, the prep season is at its midway point — the stretch of races that award 50 Derby points to the winner (with 20 going to the runner-up, 10 to third place and five points to fourth).
There are three such races Saturday: the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, and the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct.
Here’s the latest on our 10 top Derby contenders — and information on 10 more promising 3-year-olds — as the calendar turns to March (with the latest futures odds courtesy of the Caesars Sportsbook). The Herald-Leader will continue to update its top-10 list up until the Kentucky Derby on May 7.
Classic Causeway
Caesars odds: 16-1
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Sire: Giant’s Causeway
Why he’s here: Classic Causeway took the lead right out of the gate, set some pretty quick fractions, and held for an easy-looking victory under Irad Ortiz Jr. in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 12. He earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure for that win — lower than the impressive visual would have suggested — though it’s unclear just how good the competition was (Shipsational was second in his first start outside of New York, and intriguing maiden winner Volcanic was third). That was the 3-year-old debut for Classic Causeway, who finished 2021 with a runner-up finish in Churchill Downs’ premier juvenile race to Smile Happy, one of the current Derby favorites. Classic Causeway’s damsire is Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch.
What’s next? He returned to morning workouts Saturday in Florida and is likely to be the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.
Emmanuel
Caesars odds: 16-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Sire: More Than Ready
Why he’s here: Some contenders are on this list more for their promise than their accomplishments, and Emmanuel fits that bill. He’s yet to race in stakes company, but he’s 2-for-2 so far for two-time Derby winner Pletcher, who watched him smoke a Tampa Bay Downs allowance field on Jan. 30, his most recent start. He’s been training well at Palm Beach Downs since that victory and fired off a bullet workout there Saturday morning. His damsire, Hard Spun, was second in the Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2007. Emmanuel is one of the most intriguing Derby contenders running this weekend.
What’s next? The Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday will be the setting for his first stakes start.
Epicenter
Caesars odds: 8-1
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Sire: Not This Time
Why he’s here: Epicenter had his way at the front of the talented Risen Star Stakes field two weekends ago, winning that race by nearly 3 lengths with a 98 Beyer (second-best among 3-year-olds this year). The victory also put him atop the Kentucky Derby points standings with 64. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last year and was most impressive in defeat in his 3-year-old debut, a runner-up finish to Call Me Midnight in the Lecomte Stakes. Caesars has him as the co-Derby favorite following that Risen Star victory. Tough to argue with that status at this point. Hall of Fame trainer Asmussen is a record 0-for-23 with Derby starters. Is this the year?
What’s next? Staying at Fair Grounds for a likely rematch with Call Me Midnight in the Louisiana Derby on March 26. He had a workout there Monday morning.
Forbidden Kingdom
Caesars odds: 16-1
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Sire: American Pharoah
Why he’s here: Forbidden Kingdom looked like a star in winning the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 29, though that race was only 7 furlongs, the longest he has run so far. He’ll get his first shot at two turns this weekend, and how he handles added distance — especially stretching out to the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby — remains the biggest question on this colt. The story lines would be nice if he can make it to Louisville, where Mandella had the favorite three years ago, Omaha Beach, who was ultimately scratched and had to undergo throat surgery the day before the race. And, of course, Forbidden Kingdon’s sire is Triple Crown champ American Pharoah, who won the Derby (and the Preakness, Belmont and Breeders’ Cup Classic) seven years ago. Pinehurst, the runner-up to Forbidden Kingdom in the San Vicente, won the Saudi Derby over the weekend.
What’s next? He’ll run in the San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita Park on Saturday.
Messier
Caesars odds: 8-1
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Sire: Empire Maker
Why he’s here: He’s the co-favorite in the Caesars futures book and has run the fastest Beyer (103) of any 3-year-old this year, by a pretty good margin. But will he even be in the Kentucky Derby? Messier is from the Baffert barn, which means he has zero qualifying points, despite a 15-length victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month. Baffert has been largely mum on his plans, and Messier’s conglomerate of owners has shown no sign of moving him away from the embattled trainer. He finally returned to the track Monday morning, breezing 4 furlongs in :48.60 at Santa Anita Park, his first posted workout since the Lewis win. Too good to leave out of the top 10, but time is running out.
What’s next? There’s been no indication on what’s next for Messier.
Mo Donegal
Caesars odds: 18-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Sire: Uncle Mo
Why he’s here: Mo Donegal didn’t show his A game in his 3-year-old debut, a third-place finish behind White Abarrio and Simplification in the Holy Bull Stakes, but we’ll give him a pass for that one. It was his first start in two months and he broke slowly, but he showed plenty of run in the short Gulfstream Park stretch — once he finally got going — and almost got there for second. Mo has the look of a Derby contender that will get better with time. Three-time Eclipse Award winner Irad Ortiz Jr. has been aboard for his last three starts.
What’s next? If Mo Donegal doesn’t go in the Fountain of Youth this weekend — and there’s still a question about that, even though he was entered in the race — he could run next in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9.
Rattle N Roll
Caesars odds: 18-1
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Sire: Connect
Why he’s here: Rattle N Roll broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in the fall then won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, the premier 2-year-old race at Keeneland to close out his juvenile campaign. That was more than four months ago, and he hasn’t raced since. Rattle N Roll resumed training in late January and is coming off two terrific workouts, including a 5-furlong breeze in :58.67 at Gulfstream Park on Saturday morning. Since we haven’t seen him in so long, Rattle N Roll is a bit of a wild card at this stage in the Derby prep schedule. We’ll see what he looks like this weekend.
What’s next? Originally pegged for the Tampa Bay Derby next weekend, Rattle N Roll will instead make his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Smile Happy
Caesars odds: 10-1
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Sire: Runhappy
Why he’s here: Smile Happy is still the Kentucky Derby favorite of many despite his loss to Epicenter in the Risen Star Stakes last month. That makes sense. It was Smile Happy’s first race in nearly three months, and he still managed a strong finish against arguably the best Derby prep field so far. His victory last fall in the Kentucky Jockey Club — the premier 2-year-old race at Churchill Downs — is also holding up well. Runner-up Classic Causeway won the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Third-place finisher White Abarrio won the Holy Bull. Seventh-place finisher Call Me Midnight won the Lecomte. Smile Happy should have plenty left in the tank.
What’s next? McPeek is planning to keep his top two contenders — Smile Happy and Rattle N Roll — separated in the Florida Derby on April 2 and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 9, though no final determination has yet been made on who will be running where.
White Abarrio
Caesars odds: 15-1
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Sire: Race Day
Why he’s here: White Abarrio pressed the pace in the Holy Bull Stakes last month — his first start in 10 weeks — and then took over to win by a commanding 4 ½ lengths. He earned a 97 Beyer for the performance, third behind only Messier and Epicenter in this class. He returned to the track Sunday morning at Gulfstream Park, going 3 furlongs in :36.22 for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who had his first Kentucky Derby starter two years ago with NY Traffic. White Abarrio is 3-for-3 at Gulfstream and finished third in his only start away from that track: Churchill Downs, where he ran behind Smile Happy and Classic Causeway last fall. White Abarrio’s damsire is Into Mischief, who’s been the leading sire in North America the past three years.
What’s next? He’ll go straight from the Holy Bull to the Florida Derby on April 2, and even a third-place finish there would likely give him enough Kentucky Derby qualifying points.
Zandon
Caesars odds: 15-1
Trainer: Chad Brown
Sire: Upstart
Why he’s here: Zandon hasn’t had the best luck as of late. He was bothered in his stretch duel with Mo Donegal last December, finishing second in the Remsen Stakes. (The result was appealed by Zandon’s connections, but upheld). He then had a terrible start in the Risen Star but still managed to run his way back through traffic for a third-place finish behind Epicenter and Smile Happy in his first start in two and a half months. The talent here is clear, and his four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has been touting him as a horse that belongs on this stage since his very first race. We’ll see if he finds a little better setup in his next start.
What’s next? It’s looking like the Blue Grass Stakes will be next for Zandon, and Brown won that race with eventual Derby runner-up Good Magic four years ago.
Ten more to watch
Since up to 20 entrants can run in the Kentucky Derby, here are 10 additional contenders to track during the 2022 prep season (with latest Caesars odds):
Call Me Midnight (35-1) defeated Epicenter and others in the Lecomte Stakes, taking advantage of a pace setup for the come-from-behind victory. Trainer Keith Desormeaux opted to skip the next round of Fair Grounds preps and point the son of Midnight Lute directly to the Louisiana Derby later this month.
Charge It (16-1) earned a 93 Beyer for his easy, impressive maiden victory (at a distance of 1 mile) in mid-February, and Todd Pletcher will give him a shot at a major Kentucky Derby prep here soon. The son of Tapit has just two career starts and didn’t begin his racing career until Jan. 8.
Corniche (12-1) is the reigning champion of this group, but there are two problems here. 1) He’s trained by Bob Baffert, so there’s that whole “no qualifying points” thing. 2) He hasn’t even had a workout — let alone an actual race — since his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory four months ago. He’s too talented to remove from this list completely, but that time is coming soon.
Cyberknife (40-1) regrouped from a sixth-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes to win an allowance race at Fair Grounds a couple of weeks ago for Brad Cox, who doesn’t appear to have too much in the way of Kentucky Derby prospects this year. This son of Gun Runner might be his best hope, and one of the major Derby preps is likely to be the setting for his next start.
Early Voting (16-1) was the winner of the Withers Stakes for trainer Chad Brown four weeks ago. The son of Gun Runner is undefeated in two starts, but his speed numbers aren’t very impressive. The runner-up in the Withers was Un Ojo, who won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in Arkansas over the weekend. Early Voting returned to the track for a workout last week and worked again Sunday at Belmont Park.
Ethereal Road (35-1) made a nice move into the stretch of the Rebel Stakes on Saturday before getting caught by long-shot Un Ojo, but the son of Quality Road held for second and earned enough Derby points to put him near the qualifying zone. He’s trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the four-time Derby winner who turned 86 in September and might just have another starter this year. (Lukas is also considering running star filly Secret Oath against the boys on Derby Day).
In Due Time (30-1) beat American Icon (who was on this list last month) by nearly 6 lengths while running a 92 Beyer in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in early February, and he’ll be in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes next for trainer Kelly Breen. A flurry of somewhat unusual wagering activity in Vegas followed that allowance win, dramatically slashing the son of Not This Time’s futures odds. Very interesting.
Simplification (22-1) missed the start of the Holy Bull Stakes but showed some grit to work his way through the field for a second-place finish. The son of Not This Time is trained by Antonio Sano and came back two weeks after the Holy Bull defeat with a bullet workout at Gulfstream Park, where he’ll face a tough field in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Saturday.
Slow Down Andy (75-1) finished sixth in the Risen Star Stakes last month, but he flashed so much potential with a win over Messier prior to that race that he deserves another shot. Two-time Derby winning trainer Doug O’Neill will give the son of Nyquist that shot in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
Un Ojo (100-1) rallied in the stretch to win the Rebel Stakes on Saturday, a victory that didn’t look all that great on paper but will give the one-eyed gelding enough points to guarantee a Derby starting spot. Trainer Ricky Courville earned the first graded stakes win of his career Saturday.
This story was originally published March 1, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
