Kentucky Derby Watch: A star is born, international intrigue, and a filly enters the mix
The fact that Epicenter won the Louisiana Derby on Saturday evening wasn’t the impressive part. It was the manner in which he ran the race that cemented his status as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby on May 7.
There was no questioning Epicenter’s talent going into the weekend, but there was reason for concern over his running style. In his previous two races this year, the son of Not This Time set the early fractions out front. That worked out just fine with a moderate pace in the Risen Star Stakes, which he won last month. It didn’t go so well when he was pressed on the lead in his 3-year-old debut, a narrow defeat to Call Me Midnight in the Lecomte Stakes.
The biggest question was what would happen if Epicenter — already considered one of the Kentucky Derby favorites — got into a truly contested pace battle on May 7, a likely scenario with so many talented speed horses expected for this year’s race.
He put any worry over that to bed Saturday, rating just behind two front-runners, taking some dirt in the face, and then unleashing an impressive run entering the stretch. He rolled to a 2½-length victory from there under Joel Rosario, who maneuvered Epicenter to the rail into the stretch.
Epicenter ran the 1 3/16 miles in 1:54.38, setting a track record at the distance. He also earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure, second only to Messier (103) among Kentucky Derby contenders this year.
It’s clear that Epicenter will now be one of the top betting choices on Derby Day, and he could be No. 1 on a lot of expert lists going into the race, depending on what happens with the other major preps coming up over the next two weeks. He already owns a victory at Churchill Downs — winning a maiden race there in November — and he’s trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, who is a record 0-for-23 with Derby starters for his career.
Asmussen might just have his first Kentucky Derby winner with Epicenter.
Derby disappointment
It was another disappointing day for Rattle N Roll, one of the top 2-year-olds in 2021 from the barn of Lexington native Kenny McPeek.
Rattle N Roll broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in September, then won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, the premier 2-year-old race at Keeneland, two weeks later. The son of Connect came into 2022 considered to be one of the top Kentucky Derby contenders, but — after a five-month layoff — he finished sixth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 5.
On Saturday, he was fourth in the Louisiana Derby and never really factored into the race.
Rattle N Roll still has 20 Derby qualifying points, which might be enough to get into the race (if there are some defections between now and May), but he hasn’t looked like a real Derby contender yet this year.
Coming into this Derby prep season, McPeek appeared to be stacked with top contenders, but he might end up with just one horse in the race.
Smile Happy was runner-up to Epicenter in the Risen Star Stakes and will be a top choice in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland next month. He remains a real Kentucky Derby threat.
Tiz the Bomb, a turf horse viewed as a possible Derby contender, finished seventh in the Holy Bull Stakes, his 2022 dirt debut. He won a minor Derby prep on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park next time out and is expected to run there again Saturday in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, a race that will deliver enough points to get its top two finishers in the Kentucky Derby field.
McPeek, however, has said he still plans to take Tiz the Bomb to Europe to run in a couple of major turf races — the 2000 Guineas and the Epsom Derby — regardless of the number of Kentucky Derby qualifying points he accrues.
McPeek also still has Dash Attack, who has finished no better than fifth in the two big Derby preps at Oaklawn Park so far this year. He’ll get another shot in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, but he would likely need a win there to get into the Derby three weeks later.
Dubai possibilities
The UAE Derby could deliver another starter on the first Saturday in May.
The Japanese-bred Crown Pride won the 100-point Derby qualifying race Saturday in Dubai, and his connections have indicated that a trip to Louisville could be in his future.
Crown Pride is a son of two Japanese-bred horses — his sire is Reach the Crown — and all four horses in his next generation of bloodlines were bred in Japan. He has Kentucky Derby winners Sunday Silence and Seattle Slew on his father’s side.
A total of 15 horses have started in the Kentucky Derby after running previously in the UAE Derby, including 10 winners of that Dubai-based prep race. None have finished better than fifth on Derby Day, however.
The UAE Derby runner-up, Summer is Tomorrow, also accumulated enough qualifying points to get into the May 7 race, and his connections have indicated that he, too, will be considered for a run in the Kentucky Derby.
Summer in Tomorrow was bred in Kentucky but has run all of his races so far in Dubai.
Slow Down Andy bounces back
The only horse to finish ahead of Messier — now a top Kentucky Derby contender — in the past nine months has been Slow Down Andy, who prevailed over the former Bob Baffert trainee in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December.
That victory positioned Slow Down Andy as a serious Derby threat, but then he finished sixth with no real excuses in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in February, his 3-year-old debut. That was his first race outside of California, and trainer Doug O’Neill — a two-time Kentucky Derby winner — moved him back westward to New Mexico for a last-chance start in the Sunland Derby on Sunday.
This time, Slow Down Andy found the winner’s circle again, contesting a fast pace early on before holding off Bye Bye Bobby at the end for 50 qualifying points and a secured spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.
It wasn’t the prettiest of victories for Slow Down Andy, who looked green in the stretch of his win over Messier and had another awkward run Sunday, despite adding blinkers for the first time. But, it was enough to get into this year’s Kentucky Derby, if that is indeed his next step.
The connections for Slow Down Andy — O’Neill, jockey Mario Gutierrez and owner Paul Reddam — have already teamed up to win the Kentucky Derby with I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist (2016).
Slow Down Andy is the son of Nyquist.
Filly leads the weekend
This weekend will feature three major points qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby: the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, and the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway.
Most of the curiosity will be focused on Arkansas, where Secret Oath — a filly trained by D. Wayne Lukas — is scheduled to make her debut run against the boys.
Secret Oath has been one of the top stars of the Kentucky Oaks prep schedule, and she’s already accumulated enough qualifying points to make that May 6 race. So, her connections are giving her a shot on the Derby trail. The daughter of Arrogate will face what, on paper, appears to be a manageable Arkansas Derby field. Other top contenders will be Un Ojo, the one-eyed gelding who shockingly won the Rebel Stakes at 75-1 odds; Barber Road, who has been competitive in the previous Arkansas preps; Cyberknife, prepared by top trainer Brad Cox; and Doppelganger, who was previously trained by Bob Baffert before being switched to the barn of Tim Yakteen last week.
Even if Secret Oath earns enough qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Derby — a first or second would do it — there’s no guarantee she’ll run against the boys that day. Her connections won’t make a final decision on the Derby or Oaks until after Saturday’s race.
No filly has run in the Derby since Devil May Care finished 10th in 2010. The last filly to win the race was Winning Colors in 1988. She was also trained by Lukas.
▪ The Florida Derby will be the loaded field Saturday, especially with the new plan for Tampa Bay Derby winner Classic Causeway to run in that prep. He was originally scheduled to go in the Blue Grass Stakes, but it now sounds like he’ll stay put in Florida for his final Derby tuneup. It won’t be an easy one. Others expected to run include Holy Bull Stakes winner White Abarrio, Fountain of Youth winner Simplification, and impressive maiden winner Charge It, who is trained by six-time Florida Derby winner Todd Pletcher.
▪ The Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Animal Kingdom in 2011, and no one out of that race — run on a synthetic track — has finished better than 10th in the Derby since 2012. But it still delivers 100 points to the winner and 40 to second place, and it should have an intriguing field Saturday. In addition to the Kenny McPeek-trained Tiz the Bomb, one possibility will be Blackadder, one of the four Derby contenders removed from Bob Baffert’s barn last week. The son of Quality Road is now trained by Rodolphe Brisset, who has never had a Kentucky Derby starter.
