It’s early, but these horses are already Kentucky Derby contenders
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- Todd Pletcher’s Nearly, Cherie DeVaux’s Golden Tempo are Kentucky Derby hopefuls to know.
- This year will mark the 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby.
- There are less than 90 days to go until the Kentucky Derby, which will be run May 2.
Less than 90 days remain until the 152nd running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
While plenty of major prep races are still to be run, an early list of contenders to make the 20-horse starting gate for the 11/4-mile Derby is coming into focus.
So far, 15 prep races on the American Road to the Kentucky Derby have been run. While none of these have awarded more than 30 Derby qualifying points to the winner, they’ve provided a look at some horses to know as the prep season kicks into high gear in February and March. The first Derby qualifier worth more than 100 total points will be the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 14.
What’s the biggest takeaway so far from the Derby prep season?
Unfortunately, it’s about a horse that’s no longer on the Derby trail.
Ted Noffey — a Todd Pletcher trainee that’s won all four of his career starts, including a trio of Grade 1 triumphs — is no longer up for Derby consideration. In late January, Ted Noffey’s owner, Spendthrift Farm, announced the horse would be temporarily out of action due to bone bruising.
In a release from Spendthrift, Pletcher announced a timeline for Ted Noffey to return to training in early May, which eliminates any chance for the horse to properly prepare for the Derby.
A son of Into Mischief — who also sired last year’s Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, Sovereignty — Ted Noffey is the reigning 2-year-old male champion after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in late October at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Southern California.
Ted Noffey had been considered the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He had been the qualifying points leader with 40 points following wins in the Breeders’ Futurity in October at Keeneland and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
With Ted Noffey out of the picture, there’s not a clear favorite for the Derby. But there are plenty of horses with potential.
The two new leaders on the Derby qualifying points leaderboard are Nearly and Golden Tempo. Each has earned 20 qualifying points.
Nearly is also trained by Pletcher and has won each of his past three races. The biggest of the bunch came this past weekend when Nearly scored a Grade 3 triumph in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in Florida. A Florida-bred horse, Nearly’s victory came by a remarkable 53/4 lengths in the Holy Bull, and that’s with jockey John Velazquez pulling him up before the finish line.
Golden Tempo, a Cherie DeVaux trainee, is 2-for-2 in his racing career with the latest victory coming in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 17 at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
There’s also plenty of talent below these two horses on the leaderboard.
Despite the injury sustained by Ted Noffey, Spendthrift Farm is still in position to have a top Derby contender with Further Ado, a horse that’s trained by Brad Cox. Further Ado won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November at Churchill Downs. That win banked 10 qualifying points for Further Ado, a son of Gun Runner, the 2017 Horse of the Year.
Further Ado is one of 15 horses sired by Gun Runner to be nominated to this year’s Triple Crown.
There’s also been plenty of buzz surrounding Paladin, a winner in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in December at New York’s Aqueduct for trainer Chad Brown.
And yes, polarizing 73-year-old trainer Bob Baffert has another potential Derby runner in his barn. Brant scored a Grade 1 win in the Del Mar Futurity in September before finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Ted Noffey and Mr. A. P.
Last year marked Baffert’s return to the Kentucky Derby following a three-year suspension by Churchill Downs.
Further clarity on which horses need to be noted in the lead-up to the Derby will come this weekend, which features four prep races on the American Road.
On Friday, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes will be run at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, and the Withers Stakes will be run at Aqueduct. Litmus Test — another Baffert horse that already has 19 qualifying points toward the Derby — was set to run in the Southwest, but he’s been scratched from that expected start.
On Saturday, the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes is scheduled at Santa Anita Park in California. Also on Saturday, the Sam F. Davis Stakes will be run at Tampa Bay Downs. Intrepido, a horse with 13 qualifying points, will run in the Robert B. Lewis.
All four of these races will award Derby qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale to the top five runners.
Internationally, both the Euro/Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby and the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby are also underway. But, just like on the American pathway, the major qualifying points races have yet to be run.
Among the Derby contenders on the Euro/Mideast Road, Six Speed leads the way with 20 points. The horse’s trainer, Bhupat Seemar, is from India and saddled Summer Is Tomorrow in the memorable 2022 Kentucky Derby that was won by Rich Strike, in part due to the blazing pace that Summer Is Tomorrow set. Summer Is Tomorrow finished last in that 2022 Derby.
Pyromancer (JPN) is the leader with 20 qualifying points on the Japan Road. That horse is owned by Godolphin, which scored its first Kentucky Derby win last year with Sovereignty.
The potential Derby runners from the Euro/Mideast Road and the Japan Road will likely be determined by future race results. The UAE Derby on March 28 at Meydan Racecourse in the United Arab Emirates will award 100 points to the winner on the Euro/Mideast Road. On the same day, the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse in Japan will award 40 points to the victor as part of the Japan Road.
