Bob Baffert has two horses in the Kentucky Derby. What are their chances to win?
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- Bob Baffert is the trainer of two horses in the 2026 Kentucky Derby field.
- Baffert will saddle Litmus Test and Potente in this year’s Derby.
- Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby six times in his legendary training career.
Bob Baffert is flying under the radar as this year’s Kentucky Derby creeps closer.
That’s an unusual spot for the famed 73-year-old trainer to be in at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
Last year marked Baffert’s return to the Run for the Roses after being away for three years. The context surrounding that absence — Baffert won the 2021 Derby with Medina Spirit before that horse failed a post-race drug test, which began a series of events that included Churchill Downs suspending Baffert for three years — has been well documented.
Baffert’s grand Derby return in 2025 didn’t go to plan. One of his two expected runners, Rodriguez, scratched out of the race. While Citizen Bull made it to the starting gate, he finished 15th.
This year, Baffert — a six-time Derby winner — has brought two more Derby horses to Louisville in the hopes of capturing a seventh triumph on the first Saturday in May. Baffert will saddle Litmus Test and Potente in the Grade 1, $5 million Kentucky Derby on Saturday night.
What are the chances for Litmus Test, Potente to win the 2026 Derby?
Neither Litmus Test nor Potente is entering the Kentucky Derby in the best form.
Litmus Test, a son of 2016 Derby winner Nyquist, has struggled in his past two starts, both of which were in March. Litmus Test was third in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas and a disappointing seventh in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at the same track.
Prior to those efforts, Litmus Test had claimed his first graded stakes win in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in California in December.
The horse has post No. 4 for Saturday’s Derby and his recent results were reflected in his 30-1 morning-line odds.
Another concern for Litmus Test? The lack of any jockey consistency.
Martin Garcia has the mount on Litmus Test for the Kentucky Derby. He’ll be the sixth different jockey to ride Litmus Test in a race. Garcia has never ridden Litmus Test — who has two wins from seven career starts — in a race.
Potente is more lightly-raced than Litmus Test, having made only three career starts ahead of the Derby. But Potente has also flashed more potential.
A son of prolific sire Into Mischief, Potente won his first two races — including the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita in March — before suffering an upset loss as the 6-5 post-time favorite to fellow Kentucky Derby runner So Happy in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4.
Potente was drawn into post No. 14 for the Kentucky Derby, but he’ll leave from post No. 13 — the same starting gate Nyquist won from in 2016 — following the defection of Silent Tactic from Saturday’s race. Juan Hernandez, who rode Potente in both of his stakes races this spring, is the horse’s jockey for the Kentucky Derby.
Bob Baffert could make history in 2026 Kentucky Derby
Litmus Test and Potente will give Baffert his 36th and 37th all-time starters in the Derby. Currently, Baffert’s six wins — Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018) and Authentic (2020) — from 35 Derby starters equates to a 17.1% winning percentage.
Furthermore, 12 of Baffert’s 35 Derby horses have finished in the top three of the race, which is an in-the-money rate of 34.3%.
Baffert — who is tied with Ben Jones for the most Derby wins by a trainer — is also the only Triple Crown-winning trainer since 1978. Both American Pharoah and Justify achieved Triple Crown immortality.
But if Baffert is to add to his impressive Kentucky Derby results this year, it will be with a jockey light on Derby success.
In five career Derby starts, Garcia — who will ride Litmus Test — has hit the board just once with a third-place finish aboard Dortmund in 2015.
Hernandez, who will ride Potente in the Derby, is making his first appearance in the Run for the Roses.
