The 2026 Kentucky Derby is wide open. How often does the betting favorite win?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- It’s been eight years since the post-time favorite has won the Kentucky Derby.
- Justify in 2018 was the last race-time favorite to win the Derby at Churchill Downs.
- Renegade, Commandment, and The Puma could all potentially be the Derby favorite in 2026.
Those looking for a handicapping edge in Saturday night’s Grade 1, $5 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville should look to the top of the odds board, then disregard it.
The Derby is currently in a dry spell when it comes to favorites winning the race.
It’s been eight years since the post-time favorite has won the Derby. Justify — who went on to also capture the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes as part of a Triple Crown-winning campaign in 2018 — was the last post-time favorite to win the Run for the Roses.
Since then, seven post-time favorites have loaded into the Derby starting gate and failed to win the race.
This happened again last year when Journalism, who went off at 3-1 odds, came home in second place behind Sovereignty.
Will fortunes change for the race-time favorite this year?
That process starts with determining which horse will be favored when post time arrives for the Derby at 6:57 p.m. Saturday.
Several horses are in play to be the post-time favorite. Renegade, a Todd Pletcher trainee who has been assigned post position No. 1 for the race, was named the morning-line favorite for the Derby following this past weekend’s post-position draw.
Renegade — who won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 28 in his most recent start — was given 4-1 odds to be established as the morning-line favorite for the race. It’s noteworthy that Renegade will start the race from the furthest inside post, and that post No. 1 hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986.
Commandment, So Happy, The Puma, Chief Wallabee and Further Ado are all also in contention to be the post-time Derby favorite based on this week’s betting trends.
How has the race-time favorite performed in the Derby? Here’s a look at the history.
Information used is from the pari-mutuel wager era (since 1908).
How often does the post-time favorite win the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby has been run 118 times since 1908, and the post-time favorite has won the race 40 times. That’s a success rate of 33.9%.
This includes occasions when there have been co-favorites at post time. For example, Secretariat’s win in the 1973 Kentucky Derby counts, because Secretariat was the co-favorite with Angle Light, who ran 10th.
The post-time Derby favorite won six straight editions of the race from 2013-2018, but none since.
This isn’t the longest streak of race-time favorites failing to win the Derby. From 1980 through 1999, the Derby was run 20 times without the post-time favorite winning.
Improbable was fourth in 2019. Tiz the Law finished second in 2020. Essential Quality ran third in 2021. Epicenter had the lead in the stretch before finishing in second behind historic long shot Rich Strike in 2022.
Angel of Empire had a third-place finish as the favorite in 2023. In 2024, Fierceness wasn’t a factor in his 15th-place effort. Last year, Journalism was second-best in a stretch battle against Sovereignty.
Those are mostly solid finishes, and horses that leave the starting gate as the favorite typically run at least respectable races in the Derby.
Besides Fierceness, only 10 horses have finished worse than 12th as the race-time Derby favorite since 1908: Cherry Pie (20th in 1923), Picketer (15th in 1923), Bay Beauty (13th in 1929), Proud Appeal (18th in 1981), Golden Derby (21st in 1981), Total Departure (20th in 1983), Althea (19th in 1984), Demons Begone (DNF in 1987), Serena’s Song (16th in 1995) and Friesan Fire (18th in 2009).
Furthermore, the post-time Derby favorite frequently hits the board with a top-three finish in the race.
One of the safest bets to make on the Kentucky Derby is to wager on the favorite finishing in the money.
In the 118 editions of the Kentucky Derby in the pari-mutuel wagering era, the Derby favorite has finished in the top three on 75 occasions. That’s an in-the-money success rate of 63.6%, including instances when two horses were co-favorites for the Derby at post time.
Since 1908, only one post-time Derby favorite has failed to finish the race. That was Demons Begone in 1987.
